CW: 'The Carrie Diaries' Starts As A "Toss Up" For Renewal Or Cancellation

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 23rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 20, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Emily Owens, M.D. canceled 0.50
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.60
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.90
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.90
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.35
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.65
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.10
90210 :| :| :| pending
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| pending

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The first two episodes of The Carrie Diaries produced ratings of 0.6 and 0.5 with adults 18-49 (although the second episode's ratings are not yet in the calculations above). That'll keep it in the "toss up" range for at least a week. Any more declines and it's going to be dinner for the Cancellation Bear.

How can Nikita with the lowest ratings on the network be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Dillan

    90210?

  • Anna

    90210? (2)

  • Andrew

    I wouldn’t say The Carrie Diaries has the same chances as Hart.
    Hart has a much better shot.

  • tv#1

    A possible Fall 2013 CW schedule could be…

    Mon:
    *New Reality Series*
    90210 Final Season (10 Episodes)

    Tue:
    *The Selection*
    Hart of Dixie

    Wed:
    Arrow
    *The Hundred*

    Thur:
    The Vampire Diaries
    *The Originals*

    Fri:
    Supernatural
    Nikita

  • Jenny

    I’m guessing they didn’t include 90210, because the final ratings weren’t released yet.

  • One

    So, for once no one wants to peek at a teenager’s diary? I guess it really is that bad of a read…

  • hannah

    beauty and the beast is missing as well.

  • Carol

    What’s up with Beauty and the Beast??

  • Holly

    @hannah and Carol,

    beauty and the beast is missing as well.

    In bright red text at the beginning of the post:
    (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 20, 2013)

  • Brandon

    Renewed:
    TVD
    Arrow
    Supernatural
    HoD
    Nikita

    Canceled:
    B&TB
    The Carrie Diaries

    No idea about 90210.

  • hammard

    I think 90210 and B&TB are missing as originals did not air by the end of last week.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    Bah, I didn’t copy enough rows in the table initially. Now fixed.

  • Percysowner

    @tv#1 I can’t imagine the CW moving Supernatural back to Fridays. It went up on Wednesdays. It’s helping keep the network ratings be not as bad. Arrow’s ratings go up when followed by an new Supernatural. I think it may move to be a lead out for one of the new series, so another new series can get the benefit of Arrow, but right now the Arrow/Supernatural combination is working and the CW may want to keep one night stable and high, instead of stable and low.

  • Wright

    Who in their right mind would make a schedule and put SPN back on Fridays? Definitely renew TVD, Arrow and SPN and for the love of God please cancel TCD and 90210.

  • kat

    Even with the pull of syndication I was worried for Nikita at the beginning of the season. But now that it’s gone back up to the same ratings it got renewed with last season, I’m feeling better. I just hope it can maintain that throughout the spring. I’d love it if it got higher, of course, but I don’t expect it.

  • David Howell

    New reality on Monday makes sense. It can’t do worse than their teen soaps. Can it? Might work better midseason though, especially if it’s a “real-life Hunger Games” style show. Which would suggest to me…

    Monday: 90210 (reality midseason)/The Selection

    There’s a case for HoD going, but it keeps getting weaker, and basically boils down to “it’d be a de facto 44 episode order, and look at the consequences of Nikita getting one”. Not sure what you’d pair with it.

    Tuesday: Hart of Dixie/new show

    Wednesday writes itself, and frankly so does Thursday given the backdoor pilot plan:

    Wednesday: Arrow/Supernatural
    Thursday: Vampire Diaries/The Originals

    Quite what you pair with Nikita I’m not sure, but on the CW 9pm is worse than 8 so Nikita gets the later slot.

    Friday: new show/Nikita

  • feinn

    Cw does not need any more 90210…10 episodes this season is enough of a wrapup

  • Spence

    @ tv#1
    Posted January 23, 2013 at 9:30 AM

    worst tv schedule ever!

  • manziii

    Wow… TVD 2.10 … can someone tell what this means …?

  • feinn

    2.10 for tvd is better than 2 times the network average in the demo

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