CW: 'The Carrie Diaries' Starts As A "Toss Up" For Renewal Or Cancellation

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 23rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 20, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Emily Owens, M.D. canceled 0.50
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.60
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.90
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.90
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.35
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.65
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.10
90210 :| :| :| pending
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| pending

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The first two episodes of The Carrie Diaries produced ratings of 0.6 and 0.5 with adults 18-49 (although the second episode's ratings are not yet in the calculations above). That'll keep it in the "toss up" range for at least a week. Any more declines and it's going to be dinner for the Cancellation Bear.

How can Nikita with the lowest ratings on the network be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • calob

    well…this is crap. I hope the CW does not pick up The Selection or Company Town. They ought to give the green light to embrace, the tomorrow people. sleepy hollow, and amazon. if the selection or company town get picked up, o definitely cant see them withstanding a season.

  • mamanina

    I love Emily Owens, my favorite new series but it really doesn’t fit with the CW shows…I wish to heck Lifetime or someone like that could pick it up. The story line is getting better and better. I love the characters. Hope we see it again somewhere else.

  • JJA

    @calob–the CW will order at least 4 more new pilots. These were just the first two.

  • THE OLD MAN

    Nice picture

  • Honey Badger

    CW Hart Of Dixie 0.7 rating 18 – 49, Yes this show will last for 2 more years (at least) on the CW.
    It is simply the best show on television.

    ‘The Carrie Diaries’ is DOA, Cancellation soon.

    BTW, Great Bear picture

  • Nick

    What the CW should do for 2013-2014:

    Mon-
    8: America’s Next top Model/ The Selection (new)
    9: Hart of Dixie

    Tue-
    8: The Hundred (new)
    9: Supernatural

    Wed-
    8: Arrow
    9: Amazon (new)

    Thu-
    8: The Vampire Diaries
    9: The Originals (new) 

    Fri-
    8: Nikita (full final season)
    9: 90210 (10 episode final season)

  • Nick

    With last nights 0.7, HoD is likely to be renewed, sorry.

  • Holly

    @Nick,

    With last nights 0.7, HoD is likely to be renewed, sorry.

    While I think it was already likely that HOD would be renewed, it will have to maintain that 0.7 for more than one night for it to be certain.

  • carla

    Hopefully BATB comes back strong or at least steady!! It has strong online fandom which the CW loves now all it has to do is matain its steady viewership.

  • Sonicphoto

    With the failure of Carrie Diaries, I think Hart of Dixie is most likely to be renewed. Nikita is no longer the worst show now, 90210 is dropping even more than Nikita. I think they should do a last season for 90210 fans or a finale on this season if they are still recording, they should have that in mind.

  • SJ

    The Carrie Diaries is a goner. Hopefully The CW has better luck with The Cult.

  • Anon

    I simply cannot see HoD getting a pickup which would end up being a default 2-year pickup.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Carrie Diaries is a goner, fergeddaboudid.

    Hart of Dixie is not Nikita. It may not get renewed for syndication purposes after a second season. So I’d say it has a good chance of being canceled given the CW has a lot of new shows to look at.

    However, as Carrie Diaries is done for, if The Cult fails, as I suspect it will, HoD may get a second chance at season three and then be likely to get a fourth season for syndication. I still think The Cult is likely to “die very badly” based on the premise.

    BATB is likely to be canceled, it’s done poorly for a first season and there’s nothing compelling about the story line at this point.

  • James

    HoD will be renewed. 0.7 sealed the deal.

  • James

    Monday
    90210 (final 10)/The Selection (new)
    Hart of Dixie

    Tuesday
    The Hundred
    Supernatural

    Wednesday
    Arrow
    The Tomorrow People

    Thursday
    The Vampire Diaries
    The Originals

    Friday
    ANTM/NIKITA
    Cult

  • Ethiel

    Supernatural on Friday?????? ARE CRAZY!!!!Supernatural cannot go for Friday… EVER!!! EVER!!!:X

  • Ethiel

    Correction: Instead of Ever is Never ………Sorry!!! :]

  • KT

    Fact: if Hart of Dixie is renewed & moved to Fridays like some folks seem to be suggesting, the CW will be losing at least 1 viewer: me. I have a life and don’t watch TV on Fridays. IF I decide to stay in, I watch movies, not network TV. As a female in the key 18-49 demographic, I have ABSOLUTELY no interest in vampires, superheros, etc. If that’s the direction the network is going in, I will no longer waste my time watching.

  • dayv

    90210 needs their ratings to improve!

    It’s the only show on CW that I actually watch…I hope it steps up.

    The rest of CW is pitiful.

  • RS

    Whatever they do with Supernatural, I doubt it will be a move back to Friday. I think the real question is whether to separate it from Arrow. They have one night that is working for them (one ratings night Mr. Ped. isn’t taking Peptobismol) Does he give that up on the chance of a two-night win? But, particularly with the evidence that SPN is helping Arrow, it will be a tough call. And it won’t be on Friday. My only hope is keep it away from Grimm and Revolution. Particularly the latter. Do no make me choose between Kripke shows!

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