CW: 'The Carrie Diaries' Starts As A "Toss Up" For Renewal Or Cancellation

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 23rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 20, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Emily Owens, M.D. canceled 0.50
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.60
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.90
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.90
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.35
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.65
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.10
90210 :| :| :| pending
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| pending

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The first two episodes of The Carrie Diaries produced ratings of 0.6 and 0.5 with adults 18-49 (although the second episode's ratings are not yet in the calculations above). That'll keep it in the "toss up" range for at least a week. Any more declines and it's going to be dinner for the Cancellation Bear.

How can Nikita with the lowest ratings on the network be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Holly

    I doubt that The CW will want to premiere more than 3 shows in the fall. Even if they keep the repeats on Friday, that means they need to renew 6 shows. Arrow, Supernatural, and Vampire Diaries are givens. If the syndication gods get their say, Nikita stays. Carrie Diaries is bearchow. That means 2 of HOD 90210, BatB, and Cult will be renewed.

    My bet: I’m assuming Cult fails. Hart of Dixie gets renewed. And it comes down to BatB and 90210 (both CBS productions).

  • Chelle

    @Dan ‘no other show lasted behind it[TVD]’.

    Are you forgetting Nikita? That did really well after TVD and they’re not in the same genre.

  • Brandy

    @Chelle, no it didnt.It was moved to fri for bad rentention and was the lowest rated CW renewed that season.

  • herpderp

    Chelle is Bondoel.

  • Bizzaro Bondoel

    LMFAO probably a 0.1 that’s how pathetic Nikita is

  • Tessa

    @Dan

    I’m not sure about Wednesday or if they want to mess with the Arrow/ Supernatural line-up. I can see them moving Supernatural back to Fridays as it will end soon and they need Arrow as a lead-in for a new show.

    Supernatural will continue for at least two more seasons. Not sure if that qualifies as ‘soon’.

    The CW will not move Supernatural back to Friday mainly because it’s one of their well performing shows they need during the week. It has proven itself capable of holding its own against the likes of X-factor, Idol and Modern Family. It has helped Arrow in the ratings. And it has everything paved for it to go on for two more seasons. Why would they ship it to Friday and what would they put in its place to fill the gap it leaves behind?

  • JJA

    If we’re assuming Nikita will get a 4th season (to get to 88 episodes), how do we know season 4 will be the end?

    They may order an 11 episode season 5, so as to bring the total episode count to 100. Note Nikita will have 67 episodes by the end of this year, so 89 by the end of next year (if it gets a full season 4 order). 11 episodes isn’t that much more to go.

    Nikita’s renewal seems to defy logic anyway, so I wouldn’t rule-out a short season 5. The same thing, by the way, will happen to HOD.

  • Frank

    Bill Gorman,
    Can you tell us why the CW has never done 2 year renewals? I think Supernatural deserves it, because for 8 seasons, the show is doing great! And I think the showrunners are planning to end it on season 10. Do you think Supernatural deserves it?

  • Chelle

    @herpderp and brandy: It must’ve done well enough to get renewed unlike TSC. Nikita didn’t lose 2/3 of its fanbase airing after TVD and you wonder why TSC got cancelled.

  • halloween

    if CW pilots are any good, its good time to clean house, i would actually move Supernatural back to Friday to free up a slot

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Can you tell us why the CW has never done 2 year renewals?”

    You’d have to ask them.

    2 year renewals are quite rare in broadcast TV.

  • cameron

    the hundred , reign and oxygen all got pilot orders. I had really high hopes for the tomorrow people and embrace

  • James

    I’m not sure if this has already been pointed out somewhere, but the CW has removed their playlist for 90210 on their channel. With Beauty and the Beast’s strong return, Hart of Dixie’s consistent performances and Nikita’s syndication offer, it looks like this season will be it’s last, along with possibly The Carrie Diaries.

  • Kradangel

    notice all the new shows r doing bad this year besides arrow which i love!! they never should have cancelled the secret circle, dumbest decision ever

  • Brandy

    @Cheele, Nikita season one finale got 0.7 which is what Life Unexpected was getting in season,2, but they cancelled.Nikita was given the “pity freshman renwal” since networks renew ONE freshman show plus, back then, CW only cancelled 2_3 shows and filled that quota with LifeUnexpected,Hellcats and and another show I think.They couldnt afford to cancel Nikita then or they wouldve.Shows that arent the lowest rated arent sent to Fri(exception SPN, which is why its been moved off Fri).Fri are lowest rated shows or aging shows on thier last couple of seasons.

  • Brandy

    @James, that dosent mean anything.If this was 90210s last season,it wouldve been announced and promoted as such,Pedowitz wouldve said so since he “is a big believer in giving final season,vetran shows a proper sendoff”.He said at TCAs”90210 will get a proper sendoff.Also,one deccent rsted episode dosent mean Beauty will be renewed, it might still crash ratings wise like SC in spring.CW is more likley to cancel Carrie Diaries,Cult,Beauty before 90210 as its a vetran show thats going to make more money, .Also,Nikita dosent have a syndication deal or offer yetCW is trying to get it enough episodes first.

  • Davis

    FANTASY Schedule:

    Monday
    Hart of Dixie
    90210/ Reign (new)

    Tuesday
    The Hundred (new)
    Supernatural

    Wednesday
    Arrow
    Tomorrow People (new)

    Thursday
    The Vampire Diaries
    The Originals (new)

    Friday
    ANTM/NIKITA
    Beauty and The Beast or Cult

    Midseason:
    Embrace

  • Davis

    Go The HUNDRED!!!!!!!

    Btw, does 90210 have a syndication deal yet???

  • Brandy

    Davis, not yet,but I think soon it will.GG didnt get one til after season five, itll probably be the same for 90210.

  • halloween

    anybody think CW will move any scripted shows to Summer?

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