FOX: 'The Following' Starts Well, The Next Few Weeks Will Determine Its Fate

Categories: Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 23rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 20, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The Mob Doctor* canceled 0.31
Fringe* (F) final season complete 0.50
Ben And Kate :oops: (canceled 1/23) 0.60
The Cleveland Show :| :| :| 0.68
The Mindy Project :| :| :| 0.78
Raising Hope :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.86
New Girl :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Bones renewed 1.09
American Dad renewed 1.35
Bob's Burgers renewed 1.40
The Simpsons renewed 1.71
Family Guy renewed 1.77
Glee :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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1/23 Update: Ben & Kate was pulled from the Fox schedule and de-facto canceled.
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Since it premiered on Monday, the ratings for The Following came in too late for it to be included in the table above, but its time zone adjusted 3.2 adults 18-49 rating starts it well ahead of the Cancellation Bear.

A big question among commenters is likely to be "How far could it fall and still be safe?". While that's a moving target as the season progresses, at this point Fox is likely to be renewing shows that average a 1.7 rating for new episodes in the Spring. That's a long way down from The Following's premiere, but I don't try and guess future ratings.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the Fox Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Dinaminjo

    Next week will tell can The Following get some followers..

  • JacobYates

    Fox put Ben and Kate behind raising hope because they likely had less faith in it than Mindy project. Raising hope has lower ratings than new girl and they figured that since Mindy kaling was from office, she might attract a larger audience so they thought that with new girl as a lead in might make Mindy project a bigger hit. That is th only reason that I think it’s still on the bubble, it has new girl as a lead in. without its help, NO would plummet to Ben and Kate levels.

  • Morgan Wick

    Well, with how much promotion The Following got, it was bound to start well. Then again, so did The Event… time will tell if the Following becomes more than the last link in the Six Degrees game.

  • Zach

    @Jacob
    Actually Mindy was probably put behind New Girl because both are about women in their 20s/30s. Ben and Kate was most likely paired with Raising Hope because they are both more family oriented. Faith in Mindy might have a little to do with it, but I think it really comes down to how similar the shows were to their lead in. If anything Ben and Kate got the upper hand because fox wouldn’t expect it to do as well as Mindy because of its softer lead in. Unfortunately it’s doing abysmal and Mindy is barely better.

  • KevinSW

    Uhhh JacobYates the only reason why Ben & Kate went after Raising Hope was because they were similar (aka Family show), while New Girl and The Mindy Project had similar audiences as well.

    It has nothing to do with “More faith” in anything, the two shows just have similarities (Hope/B&K and NG&TMP)

  • Wright

    The Following was good. It reminds me of the movie Red Dragon. Now that Fringe (I will always miss you) and Mob Doctor are gone all I care about is New Girl, Bones and The Following.

  • The End

    @Dinaminjo

    Actually Fox will be giving the show a few weeks at least. It MAY lose some Nielsen viewers, but gain some back, or fall into a stable position that enables it to be renewed by Fox. Say if it fell and stayed at around 8 million, 2.5/2.7 for its entire run.

  • Bob

    I don’t watch one single show on Fox looking at that list. I used to watch Glee the First Season and parts of Second Season. The Following if it continues to do well, I may purchase the episodes on Amazon Instant Video but only if it does well. I am sick of getting involved in shows and just end up disappointed when they cancel.

  • tscchope

    Have to be sanguine about Fox’ chances with this dram given how their dramas have fared the last few years. The highest rated at season end, Terra Nova, they cancelled.They’ll be hoping The Following gathers a following.

  • John A

    I liked The Following but i think it will drop alot. Kevin Bacon was decent and Serial Killer Actor was good but the rest of the cast stunk.

  • Glover

    The Following will be renewed.

  • NJ Viewer

    I watched it. Eh. Nothing special.

  • The End

    @John A

    Just remember, however tempting it may be. If the show does fall to say 7 million for its 2nd episode, not to announce that the show is dead/doomed. You, or anyone else thinking of doing that will look at bit silly if the numbers recover and stabilize the following week.

  • Dan

    Unless The Following really takes a dive over the next 15 weeks, i think Fox will Try to salvage it. Kevin Bacon cdma only do 15 eps a season so like 24 it can be a reliable midseason series if renewed. With all other flops this season I think Fox will Try to Save The Following and Mindy Project.

  • Winston Mize

    ben and kate pulled!

  • Alex XY

    Touch premiered with a 3.9 and finished with a 1.3 (it was renewed but put on Fridays where I don’t think it will survive – it doesn’t have the fan base Fringe had – tough I hope it does(survive)!!!

    Alcatraz also premiered high, with a 3.3, finishing with a 1.5 and it was cancelled – we all know that Touch was renewed not because it had better ratings than Alcatraz, but because of Kiefer – I’m glad they cancelled otherwise we probably wouldn’t have had that awesome Fringe Final Season!!!

    All that said, I really enjoyed The Following (even more than the previously mentioned and I actually liked them) and I really hope it keeps doing great!

  • Rich

    I wonder how The Following did in the UK after debuting last night on SKY Atlantic.

  • KJ Styles

    Fox is nothing short of pathetic. I watched The Following the other night and wasn’t impressed. It will probably be renewed given it has a long way to fall to put it in any danger, that coupled with the complete and total failure of the Mob Doctor.

  • The End

    @Alex XY

    You’re right about Touch, does make me wonder if Fox will axe the show on its 2nd season if the numbers plummet further. I think they will and Kiefer will have a new show lined up prior.

    Much in the way the Bones creator has had his pilot picked up by Fox, obviously planning ahead for when Bones eventually ends(I think it will next season).

  • Glover

    Airing Raising Hope’s finale after American Idol is good news for the show.

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