FOX: 'The Following' Starts Well, The Next Few Weeks Will Determine Its Fate

Categories: Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 23rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 20, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The Mob Doctor* canceled 0.31
Fringe* (F) final season complete 0.50
Ben And Kate :oops: (canceled 1/23) 0.60
The Cleveland Show :| :| :| 0.68
The Mindy Project :| :| :| 0.78
Raising Hope :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.86
New Girl :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Bones renewed 1.09
American Dad renewed 1.35
Bob's Burgers renewed 1.40
The Simpsons renewed 1.71
Family Guy renewed 1.77
Glee :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

-
1/23 Update: Ben & Kate was pulled from the Fox schedule and de-facto canceled.
-
Since it premiered on Monday, the ratings for The Following came in too late for it to be included in the table above, but its time zone adjusted 3.2 adults 18-49 rating starts it well ahead of the Cancellation Bear.

A big question among commenters is likely to be "How far could it fall and still be safe?". While that's a moving target as the season progresses, at this point Fox is likely to be renewing shows that average a 1.7 rating for new episodes in the Spring. That's a long way down from The Following's premiere, but I don't try and guess future ratings.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
-

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the Fox Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Craig

    At least judging from the pilot, looks like Fox has a worthy dramatic replacement for Fringe in The Following…

  • MattSTKC

    They won’t cancel Following. It got a full series order, as a condition of Kevin Bacon doing a TV show. It would make no sense to cancel it since they’ve paid for the episodes already and the series is in the can.

  • JacobYates

    @Zach and kevinsw
    That’s a good point there

  • THE OLD MAN

    Like all the green beside RH

  • jay
  • John A

    @The End Well ill look at the demo. Total viewers are meaningless as Harry’s Law proved that on NBC last season.

  • geri

    I watched The Following. I thought it was pretty good. You have to give a show a chance for the characters to develope. No show starts out with well constucted or well established charcater interaction. That comes with time. I agree about Fox’s programing. I only watch Bones and Touch and now The Following.

  • Nick

    What Fox should do for 2013-2014:

    Mon-
    8: Bones
    9: Gun Machine (new)/ Untitled Wyman/Abrams project (new)
     
    Tue-
    8: Raising Hope
    8:30: Live From Our Living Room (new)
    9: New Girl
    9:30: Wendy & Peter (new)

    Wed-
    8:  X Factor/ Idol

    Thu-
    8: The X Factor/ Idol
    9: Kitchen Nightmares/ The Following

    Fri-
    8: Glee
    9: Touch

    Sat-
    8: Fox Sports Saturday

    Sun-
    7: The OT/ Cops
    7:30: The OT/ Bob’s Burgers
    8: The Simpsons
    8:30: Bob’s Burgers/ Murder Police (new)
    9: Family Guy
    9:30: American Dad

    Midseason- Dads (new)

  • @TheEmulator23

    Mindy will be renewed. What else they got? Following may be good for this year, don’t see how they’ll do a 2nd season.

  • The End

    @John A

    Sorta had that under the same umbrella. A loss of viewers would of course in most cases mean a less in viewers in each respective demographic group. Apologies for not being clear.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Well, Fox finally has a show on this season that I can watch (other than Fringe which has been horrible.) I watched The Following, and while it’s a “cop show”, which I normally don’t watch, it’s more of a “crime drama” than a pure cop show due to the unusual premise. Plus I’m looking forward to Annie Parisse joining the cast.

    My guess is The Following will survive the spring season and be renewed. As Bill says it’s a long way from 3.2 to 1.7. But he’s right that such a fall is not impossible.

  • SJ

    The Following had an OK, if unimpressive start. We’ll see how it unfolds, but wow, Fox cannot get a 4 rating for a drama premiere anymore if their lives depended on it!

    The Mindy Project, while undeserving, should probably be bumped up to likely renewal, as it’s the network’s passion project. It’s totally the network version of Girls, in that it’s way overrated and a critical darling no one really bothers to watch. Though something tells me Mindy won’t be winning any Emmys/Golden Globes in the near future.

  • Jamie

    One thing I will say about Fox is that I think they need to venture into afew more Drama shows and ignore the reality shows for now. Honestly they only have one Scripted drama show that’s really still getting the ratings and that is Bones. I’m not saying that the Ratings are massive. But they stay the same week from week and when alot of their other shows’ overall ratings are slipping to sixes and fives..bones is doing rather well with 7′s and when the reality shows aren’t against 8′s. But part of fox’s problem is that the way they handle their shows is stupid. Moving bones to mondays was a lame idea as seeing that it’s up against some of the biggest reality shows in that hour plus monday night cbs comedies and yet it still remains to keep most of it’s audience but it would get a lot more viewers on it’s old night. And then Moving Touch to Fridays. It was getting atleast decent ratings last year and you move it to fridays. That’s dumb. as I thought moving Fringe to fridays was dumb back when it was first moved to. It atleast managed 5 million in the beginning of it’s run but moving it to fridays was a very stupid decision. Friday nights for tv rarely ever work yet what does fox do? send all of their shows to friday.

    But I just think that they need to bring some more creative ideas to the network. I think they need to move passed all of the shows they’ve done and give us something different. Something that they don’t have on the channel already..We’ve seen Enough FBI/Cat and Mouse stories to last us a lifetime. If the FBI isn’t overstaged on Fox it sure is on CBS. What I think they need is to go into a genre they don’t have. Maybe a family show. Something with a bit more layers and heart. Bring a young adult show in to bring a more 18-49 audience. But whatever the case is they need to bring something new to the network because it’s dying. Seriously when Idol ends and it won’t be long judging on the crapfest that’s this year and Bones is done for (I don’t think it’ll be next year by the way as Bones is still quality and is just as good as it ever was) the network is going to be hurting and they’ll need another hit scripted drama to fall back on. If you think about it, For the last 8-9 years fox Drama shows have been all about House & Bones and this year their reeling alittle bit at the loss of house. acouple of years from now when Bones is gone what is the network going to look like if they don’t have a new hit to stand in it’s place. I have noticed most the new shows always take a huge dip lately on the network so i’m not going to say that the following is automatically renewed because it had a good first episode with a really great 10 million viewers. The next couple of episodes is where we’ll tell that. For if you remember Alcatraz was really great the first couple of episodes and had really good ratings but it got boring and people got disinterested and left and it got cancelled and right now it seems alittle more fresh and not like every other FBI show out there but I remind you, So Did Alcatraz. I hope it keeps it’s creativeness in future episodes and gets renewed. I just think this network is falling through the cracks as far as viewership and I think the ticket for them is to create different ideas because their stuck doing the same things that they always do and I think alot of people are looking for something fresh. There’s afew shows this year that have done something different on other networks. That aren’t your predictable Idea so it can be done. Here’s to hoping they bring some different shows in the fall.

  • TheFollowing

    C’mon guys, just support your fave shows.

  • Holly

    @Jamie,

    One thing I will say about Fox is that I think they need to venture into afew more Drama shows and ignore the reality shows for now.

    It’s not like Fox hasn’t tried. The problem is every drama they put on the air in the last few years has failed, often miserably. The only drama last year that managed to stay above a 2.0 was the reportedly very expensive Terra Nova.

  • ToXiX

    Fox needs to lose Mindy too. They’d be better off renewing Cleveland.

  • JacobYates

    @holly
    And they cancelled that despite the fact that it made money, was the #1 new drama among men 18-49, #2 new show among adults 18-49, and averaging a 2.5 overall for its only season

  • Cerebro

    Bill, you should, probably, change the status of Fringe to “Final season complete”.

  • Dan

    The problem with Terra Nova was that it needed to be a big hit, not just decent. The ratings were going down and the general consensus was that it was a pretty bad show. Ordering a second season of such an expensive show was risky, and Fox simply couldn’t afford to take that chance.

  • Oliver

    @SJ

    How is Mindy a “critical darling”? It’s a show that, on paper, should be a cult critical hit, but critics don’t like the show.

    Ben and Kate on the other hand…

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures