FOX: 'The Following' Starts Well, The Next Few Weeks Will Determine Its Fate

Categories: Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 23rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 20, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The Mob Doctor* canceled 0.31
Fringe* (F) final season complete 0.50
Ben And Kate :oops: (canceled 1/23) 0.60
The Cleveland Show :| :| :| 0.68
The Mindy Project :| :| :| 0.78
Raising Hope :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.86
New Girl :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Bones renewed 1.09
American Dad renewed 1.35
Bob's Burgers renewed 1.40
The Simpsons renewed 1.71
Family Guy renewed 1.77
Glee :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

-
1/23 Update: Ben & Kate was pulled from the Fox schedule and de-facto canceled.
-
Since it premiered on Monday, the ratings for The Following came in too late for it to be included in the table above, but its time zone adjusted 3.2 adults 18-49 rating starts it well ahead of the Cancellation Bear.

A big question among commenters is likely to be "How far could it fall and still be safe?". While that's a moving target as the season progresses, at this point Fox is likely to be renewing shows that average a 1.7 rating for new episodes in the Spring. That's a long way down from The Following's premiere, but I don't try and guess future ratings.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
-

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the Fox Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • CBSviewer

    The Following is really a “Toss-Up” Show. Even Alcatraz got a 3.3 for its premiere. Next weeks will decide The Following’s fate.

  • Dan

    This year is easier to predict for shows as opposed to last season.

    Raising Hope, New Girl, and Glee will definitely be renewed

    The Mindy Project and The Following will probably be renewed

    The Cleveland Show and Touch will probably be cancelled

    Here’s why

    Raising Hope – 1 more season = Syndication, enough said
    Glee – FOX has no other dramas besides Bones
    New Girl – Highest rated live action comedy on FOX, a lock for renewal

    The Mindy Project – My guess is while low rated, its retention out of New Girl isn’t terrible an FOX has a good relationship with Mindy Kaling.

    The Following – The premiere was great and with The Mob Doctor flopping it it holds steady over its season than FOX will renew it for another season.

    The Cleveland Show – No fifth season order this late in the year, plus all other comedies renewed for next year = cancellation. The show is already syndicated and all episodes will air.

    Touch – Based on last years dwindling ratings out of Idol its hard to imagine this show will do better than Fringe in the Friday Night Death slot. Its basically done.

    FOX isnt doing great this season, however they have next season to rebuild with the shows they have plus new shows so

    Renewed: Family Guy, The Simpsons, Bob’s Burgers, Glee, Bones, American Dad, New Girl, The Mindy Project, The Following, Kitchen Nightmares, Idol, X Factor

    Cancelled: The Mob Doctor, Fringe, Ben & Kate, Touch, The Goodwin Games, The Cleveland Show

  • Richard Steven Hack

    CBSviewer: “The Following is really a “Toss-Up” Show. Even Alcatraz got a 3.3 for its premiere.”

    Alcatraz was a highly promoted JJ Abrams show and Fringe wannabe, which is why it premiered high. I correctly predicted its demise long before it even aired, based on the confused premise alone.

    You’re correct that the next four or five episodes will determine whether it will do well. It may drop significantly in episode two, but what counts are the following four episodes. If a show doesn’t stabilize by episode six, it’s a goner.

  • Bigbrotherfan

    The follwing next to Nashville was one of the best pilots I can remember! It’s was well acted, well written, earie, scary and suspenseful! I can’t believe this came out of the same dude who writes The Vampire Diaries! Truly great pilot! Anyone who says otherwise is talking smack! Didn’t really watch it as in doing something else at the same time. It’s really a show you need to give full attention to. I can hope or does not fall too much. Fox can’t honestly have huge expectation for that slot. Honestly.. The only real success was melrose (right?) and 24. A 2.0+ would keep it alive.

    The Mindy project could go either way . I can see fox just canceling it or giving it another shot. I think the reason it got such a faith in confidence is cause Goodwin games must of sucked!

    They need to get rid of x factor! Simon is gonna burn more money in their pockets!

    Nicki minaj and Mariah Carey injected some more life in the show! It’s doing good anyone who says otherwise is delusional!

  • cas

    Seriously I loved the following. Best pilot I have seen. I don’t know why some people said it sucks, but maybe they just don’t know what a good pilot is. And what were they expecting from this type of show? I was thinking it was so good, it may gain viewers and even go up next week but that could be wishful thinking.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Bill, you should, probably, change the status of Fringe to “Final season complete”.”

    Thanks. Done.

  • JacobYates

    @dan
    General consensus? What general consensus? it was no Emmy award winner yeah, but critics and fans liked the show enough. I also thought that making money would be pretty important, as well as performing above the scripted average for fox shows too. did you make money on the show and did it get decent ratings? There shouldnt be any grey area.

  • I Love TV!

    @Bigbrotherfan
    “I can’t believe this came out of the same dude who writes The Vampire Diaries”

    Have you ever watched TVD???? It’s one of the best dramas around TV! Just because it landed on The CW doesn’t mean it sucks

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures