Will 'American Idol's' Ratings Fall in Week 2? - Poll

Categories: Broadcast TV

Written By

January 23rd, 2013

Last week, the American Idol premiere earned a 6.0 adults 18-49 rating. It was a significant drop from last season, but still a huge number. Now that viewers have gotten a taste of the Mariah Carey-Nicki Minaj "rivalry", will they be back for more? Make your ratings predictions below.

 
  • TVMAN

    IDOL auditions are shorter this year, which should help ratings, because IDOL auditions are weakest part of the show. My guess it 5.4, it was good sign that last Thursdays show was even with last year.

  • Samunto

    5.1

  • JR35

    Tonight is that BIG battle they had, so maybe there won’t be as big a drop as in the past.

  • Crysti

    Cookie you seem to be mr. Doom and gloom this year. I have seen you on idol forums. What’s your deal?

  • THE OLD MAN

    I’m going w/ 5.2 or less, just using the basic 15% drop (here’s hoping)

  • Nick

    5.3.

  • Mitch

    Urban/Carey…will hopefully salvage!

  • Anna Bones Clarkwood

    @Cooky, yes the projected ad rates for the AI has gone down each year (at least the past 2 or 3) it’s 340,825 & Results are 296,082.

    What does suspense have to do with it? The demo is all that matters. From what I’ve seen audition episodes should be getting 500K and Top 8 should be getting 150K and the finale should get 225K. This is b/c the audition episodes are where Idol really packs in all those hours of high ratings. Meaning that if we split Idol btwn Audition/the rest just like Renew/Cancel Index does for Fall/Spring then Auditions would be getting 275% & the rest would be getting 200%. So that means ad rates should be going down as the season progresses not the other way around.

  • 728huey

    It will probably drop a bit tonight but not very much; I’m predicting 5.8 for tonight. However, I think it will fall further when it’s up against TBBT and even further when the Hollywood rounds start. It won’t level off until the live competition starts.

  • Fred Falkner

    Niki is hi-jjacking the show. It is not about her. The camera (producer) focuses on her way too much. She is actually aggravating to watch and her ego is going to cost the show serious ratings. She is a tune out not a tune in as was Simon. The apparent rift (real or fabricated) between her and Mariah will accelerate the ratings decline of the show. It’s jump the shark time!

  • CookyMonzta

    @Crysti That is a question you should ask the Idol top brass. When this show began, they had one purpose and/or one goal: To find a superstar. I don’t believe that even THEY believe in that goal anymore. They are far more interested in SHOWCASING superstars than FINDING one. That, besides the show’s age, is why I believe this show is losing viewers in alarmingly big chunks.

    I saw signs of trouble with this show as far back as the very end of the 6th season. The REAL signs were made obvious during the 9th season. The 11th season made its march toward oblivion absolute. The only debate now is how fast, and if it should pack it in. My opinion is that the show should be retired the sooner the viewership drops to 1st-season levels, which is 12.7 million, a mark that I predict they will reach in 2015, certainly 2016 at the latest.

    My opinion is this: Never leave a show on too long, to the point where it becomes a sad shadow of its former glory. It tarnishes the legacy and LEGEND for a show, which used to draw 30 million (5th/6th season), to stay on the air WAY past its prime, drawing perhaps 7 or 8 million (or even worse) in its 20th season, with an 18-49 demo in the low-2s or worse, making it obvious that the people just don’t care for this show anymore.

    This show can lay claim to setting the stage for a new wave of talent shows (just as ‘Star Search’, 1983-95, set the stage for THIS show) without staying past its prime. Though the new shows might never draw 30 million, I think this show would be better off stepping aside once its viewership goes back down to 1st-season levels. And I should mention again, I believe that this show and its top brass have forgotten its original purpose.

  • CookyMonzta

    @Anna Bones: You’re absolutely right. It is almost a foregone conclusion that the audition shows draw more viewers than the live shows. The 5th season ratings are VERY evident of this.

    I never did know how much the show was getting in advertising fees today. I’m glad I guessed right about the range ($300K-$350K), given what someone told me 2 years ago, about the $500K-$650K fees that this show USED to demand.

    If this show falls to 6th in the ratings, as I predict, they will be hard-pressed to make a case for demanding more than $250,000 next year. If they fall out of the top 10 (which I doubt), no one’s going to want to give them more than $200,000. In either case, the show will be forced to trim down, maybe invite fewer celebrities, certainly to go back to a half-hour results show, and maybe even to reduce the number of contenders in the qualifying rounds, and narrow the main competition back to 10.

  • networkman

    Of course it will but I still feel it will be stronger than The Voice this season. I believe the high for The Voice was 4.9 and that was its finale. I think American Idol should remain in the 5′s. I’m going to say 5.7 for this second week.

  • TVMAN

    @Cooky. IDOL is all about finding the next superstar, that’s why their slogan or the 12th season is. “Everyone dreams. Idol Delivers”. The Voice & X Factor try to create a successful singer, but they’ve failed. IDOL can still produce Platnium selling artists and singers who can sell out concerts 12 seasons in.

  • CookyMonzta

    @TVMAN: How many of Idol’s “superstars” remain at their prime 3 years after appearing on the show? How many after 5? Cracks have come earlier than ever for the contenders, especially from the 6th season onward. Except maybe for Scotty McCreery, who happened to have been my pick for the 10th season (for which his longevity will probably be decided by his next album), every champion, every top contender since 2007, is either riding the razor’s edge or on thin ice, and many more were one-and-done with an A- or even B-list label. The best overall roster, in my opinion, came from the 5th season.

  • CookyMonzta

    As for their new slogan, tell that to Lee DeWyze and Crystal Bowersox. Their ability to deliver stardom to their contenders today is dubious at best, compared to the first 5 seasons.

  • TVMAN

    @Cooky Season 9 in general was a disaster. Lee was truly the only winner who did terrible. Every winner (exept 2) has had at least 2 albums with a major label. The past two winners have been very successful. I think the days of creating a Kelly or Carrie are probably long over, but they can still produce stars, and is the only show who can.

  • CookyMonzta

    My point is that we’re at the point where people are starting to care little about the show and the stars they produce today. Even Chris Daughtry, who had a good run of albums with his group, is quite probably one album away from being dropped from his major label. Everyone since the 5th season has had to fight to stay relevant in the industry.

    It should be said, right now, that one of the most successful contenders to come from the show is one who has been in a NON-SINGING role ever since: Video-game correspondent Kristin (Holt) Adams, of the soon-to-be-defunct G4 Network; 8 years there, with ‘X-Play’ being one of the network’s 2 original programs (‘Attack of the Show!” being the other) having come to an end last night. She made it to the qualifying round of the 1st season, but failed to make the final 10. I don’t think anyone has been as successful in a non-singing role.

    It is likely that the contenders today who make it past 3 years in ANY media industry are those who will end up in non-singing roles. Jennifer Hudson is probably THE only one to do acting and singing. To get to where Kelly C. and Carrie are will be next-to-impossible if you go on this show. For some, they’d be better off rolling the dice without going on ANY talent show.

  • TVMAN

    @Cooky. The same could be said about any artist, if a singer isn’t selling well, they will be dropped. Kristin is not one of the most successful contestants, didn’t even no who she was before you talked about her. Is she a moderate success, I suppose. But defiantly not one of the most successful. Jennifer Hudson is not the only one, Katharine McPhee is also a singer/Actress, same with Jordin Sparks. Why would a singer chose to be on XF or The Voice when all they’ve produced is FLOPS. Idol has produced a superstar singer every year.

  • msupdate

    I’d go with 5.1 or 5.2. Absolute maximum is 5.4.

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