The Following premiered well with a 3.2 adults 18-49 rating. Bill notes that it would have to fall a long way (currently to below around a 1.7 adults 18-49 rating) to be at risk for cancellation.
Solid premieres are definitely much better than lousy premieres, but they still aren't very telling. Remember, last January the two-hour premiere of Alcatraz averaged a 3.3 adults 18-49 rating. A little more than two months later its two-hour season finale averaged adults 18-49 ratings of 1.6 and 1.5 respectively and Alcatraz was canceled.
That does not mean that The Following will meet with the same fate as Alcatraz, it just means for now The Following is still on the bubble.
During the week Don't Trust The B---- in Apt. 23 was effectively canceled (protest the semantics as much as you like, even James Van Der Beek tweeted "Translation: we’ve basically been cancelled." Meanwhile Van Der Beek deserves some kind of TV by the Numbers award for being a realist and a class act with his tweets.
But network TV is a business dictated by Nielson ratings. And while that’s an antiquated business model, it’s the only one they’ve got.
— James Van Der Beek (@vanderjames) January 22, 2013
And please, no bashing ABC. While I’m sure no one there would say they think they nailed it when it came to programming #Apt23 this year...
— James Van Der Beek (@vanderjames) January 22, 2013
You've got to give ABC props for ever picking us up in the first place. They took a shot at something original & edgy. I respect them for it
— James Van Der Beek (@vanderjames) January 22, 2013
Ok, like many, he spelled Nielsen incorrectly, but otherwise that was pretty classy.
Ben And Kate was also effectively canceled by being pulled from the schedule and then just canceled outright. That means unless something moves down the list, all of this season's "certain to be canceled" shows have now already been canceled.
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
| Show | Network | Status |
| 666 Park Avenue | ABC | Canceled |
| Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 | ABC | Canceled |
| Last Resort | ABC | Canceled |
| Made In Jersey | CBS | Canceled |
| Partners | CBS | Canceled |
| Emily Owens, M.D. | CW | Canceled |
| Ben And Kate | Fox | Canceled |
| The Mob Doctor | Fox | Canceled |
| Animal Practice | NBC | Canceled |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Happy Endings | ABC | Likely Cancellation |
| CSI: NY | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| Vegas | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| 1600 Penn | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Deception | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Guys With Kids | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Up All Night | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Last Man Standing | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Malibu Country | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Cleveland Show, The | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Following, The | Fox | On The Bubble |
| The Good Wife | CBS | On The Bubble |
| The Mentalist | CBS | On The Bubble |
| 90210 | CW | On The Bubble |
| Carrie Diaries, The | CW | On The Bubble |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | On The Bubble |
| Nikita | CW | On The Bubble |
| Beauty And The Beast | CW | On The Bubble |
| The Mindy Project | Fox | On The Bubble |
| New Normal, The | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Whitney | NBC | On The Bubble |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Castle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Neighbors, The | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Revenge | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Suburgatory | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| The Middle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Elementary | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Chicago Fire | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Go On | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Modern Family | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Nashville | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Scandal | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| CSI | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Arrow | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Supernatural | CW | Certain Renewal |
| The Vampire Diaries | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Glee | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| New Girl | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Grimm | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Parenthood | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Revolution | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | Renewed |
| American Dad | Fox | Renewed |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | Renewed |
| Bones | Fox | Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Renewed |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Private Practice | ABC | Canceled/Final Season |
| Gossip Girl | CW | Final SeasonFinished |
| Fringe | Fox | Final SeasonFinished |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Final Season |
| The Office | NBC | Final Season |
--
Nashville IS a certain renewal, it will only change if Zero Hour or Red Widow become OUAT-sized hits, which is a long shot. ABC cannot cancel all of its freshmen dramas.
I think it is strange that 1600 Penn went from on the bubble to likely cancelled when its ratings improved. I think it is going to be renewed because 30 Rock and the Office are ending. Up All Night is pretty much dead, and even though I LOVE Community, it has 0 chance of surviving. This leaves NBC with Parks and Recreation & 1600 Penn. It will be renewed. The Office and 30 Rock leaving will also insure Go On and The New Normal’s renewal. Whitney & Guys with Kids, not so much.
@omabin: while you make some fair points (and perhaps we should say that “Up All Night-Original” is canceled and treat the reboot differently), your averages take into consideration things that I ultimately wind up ignoring like premiere numbers (eg, I threw out the premiere for Guys With Kids and averaged the rest of the episodes). On an average ratings basis it is still Whitney’s peer, but I like Whitney’s prospects slightly more because it has the “more total episodes” advantage.
@Mando: total viewers are irrelevant, and while it’s possible that Guys with Kids and New Normal’s prospects will soon converge, New Normal still has enough of a historical ratings advantage to separate them for me.
I understand some people’s (everyone’s?!) protest about “The Middle.” They are being nitpicky about the distinction between likely and certain in one way, and I am being nitpicky about those distinctions in a different way!
@PhilipM
In fact, BB averages the exact same 1.42 among adults 18-49. That’s more impressive…
BB is just against 20/20 and Dateline every week and it completely crushed when paired with Made in Jersey. I’ll hardly call that impressive.
@Robert,
Actually, the way I compute my weighted averages, the premiere rating is not being taken into account anymore. In Guys with Kids’ case it would need a 12.0 rating or something like that to change the weighted average to a 1.5. So my point is that, as far as weighted averages are (which give a way greater weight to more recent episodes), new normal and guys with kids are effectively tied. Other than that, I agree with you on Whitney 100%, I actually think it is the third most likely renewal as far as NBC comedies go, only after parks and go on. I think by the end of the season we will witness NBC picking up two out of Up All Night/The New Normal/Guys with Kids/Community to play the scheduling sparkle role that Whitney and Community served this year (of course this is assuming that Community and Up All Night will have ratings in line with the other two). Other than that, if NBC picks up three new comedies for the fall, it will have 6 hours of comedies + the scheduling sparkle hour, which I believe makes sense, since dramas are working out better for them right now.
All this talk to explain my point: I cannot make a clear distinction between Guys with Kids and New Normal to have one on the bubble and the other not at this point.
Also, I would like to hear from you regarding my Five-0/Blue Bloods argument. You’ve justified your middle as likely thing with modern family and while I don’t agree, i can see where you are coming from. What is your argument for Five-0 as likely renewal and Blue Bloods as certain?
i love modern family
@Omabin: while like the Middle (though for different reasons) the distinction between likely renewal and certain renewal are arbitrary. Unlike the Middle (which, I am only ~98% certain will be renewed) despite the designation for Hawaii Five-0, I am certain it will be renewed. In both cases it would certainly be simpler to just move them to “certain” and at least in the case of H50, even I agree that I should!
But the distinction between Guys with Kids and The New Normal is not an arbitrary one. We’ll we’probably wind up in the same place sooner rather than later, but you’re giving much more weight to recent episodes (or discounting ratings for older episodes, if you prefer) than I am. Also, I am factoring in that Guys with Kids has not gone up against Idol with originals yet, which it will do this week.
@Robert
We are in agreement on Five-0 then. As for guys with kids, that is a fair point of it going up against idol, i hadn’t thought about that, and yes, I give a very big weight to more recent airings, mainly because I believe this is what networks should and do look at the most, since they are more telling on how will a show perform the next year than yearly averages are. We shall wait and see what happens with both show’s ratings then.
since they dont give these shows enough time to even find an audiance, I say we start a new thing== no one watches the first year of a new show, we wait to see what the politics are,AND the only reason the mentalist is on the list is because they keep moving the time on the Good Wife so I can not record it, why the network would sacrifice the mentalist for the Good Wife is beyound me but now they may loose both. AND the shows should be allowed to end their storys, not just stopped, we have a right to an ending no matter how low the ratings are!
Zelda,
The Mentalist is not owned by CBS while The Good Wife is.
If The Following can keep the intensity up, then the numbers will follow. I feel 23 needed better writers and it may be too late for 23.
My prediction for the Bubble shows:
Last Man Standing: Renewed
Malibu Country: Depends on how invested ABC is in TGIF
Cleveland Show, The: Cancelled
Following, The Fox: Too soon to tell
The Good Wife: Renewed
The Mentalist: Depends on whether CBS wants to push Undercover Boss back again
90210 CW: Renewed
Carrie Diaries, The CW: Cancelled
Hart Of Dixie CW: Renewed
Nikita CW: Renewed
Beauty And The Beast: Cancelled
The Mindy Project Fox: Cancelled
New Normal, The: Renewed
Whitney: Renewed
A few nitpicks-
• I don’t get the reluctance you (Robert) and Bill have
Wow!! That’s quite and imagination you’ve got going there! I have read hundreds of comments concerning the cancellation and have yet to read even one that suggested that Apt. 23 wasn’t really cancelled! Just because some of us thought Apt. 23 was funny doesn’t mean we need to be talked down to.
@Cyrax
ABC cannot cancel all of its freshmen dramas.
Sure they can.
Prior to their big drama season in 2004-05, ABC had only renewed two freshman dramas over the previous seven seasons (and they had far from a full lineup – only NYPD Blue and The Practice).
That said, Nashville has had consistent, decent ratings and will likely be renewed.
@zelda
since they dont give these shows enough time to even find an audiance
Leaving a failing show on the air and throwing good money after bad is not going to magically make it successful.
If they gave every show a full season (two seasons?) to find an audience, we’d have significantly less shows make it on the air.
Maybe that show you wished the network had just given a little more time would have some more episodes, or maybe it would have never even made it to the pilot stage because of the decreased need for new shows.
My prediction for the Bubble shows:
Last Man Standing: Renewed
Malibu Country: Depends on how invested ABC is in TGIF
Cleveland Show, The: Cancelled
Following, The Fox: Too soon to tell
The Good Wife: Renewed
The Mentalist: Depends on whether CBS wants to push Undercover Boss back again
90210 CW: Renewed
Carrie Diaries, The CW: Cancelled
Hart Of Dixie CW: Renewed
Nikita CW: Renewed
Beauty And The Beast: Cancelled
The Mindy Project Fox: Cancelled
New Normal, The: Renewed
Whitney: Renewed
A few nitpicks-
• I don’t get the reluctance you (Robert) and Bill have to put Vegas as certain cancellation. CBS has to cancel 3 or 4 of their dramas (Golden Boy, The Mentalist, The Good Wife, CSI: NY, and Vegas). Vegas is just as low-rated, if not lower, than all of them. Also, it’s a newbie. It’s certainly gone.
• Nikita is likely to be Renewed. It’s ratings are OK now, and with syndication, it’s definitely coming back.
JJ, why would we WANT someone to take a finer look at what people are watching? The last thing we need is for the advertisers to have hard data about how few of their commercials are being watched.
Few Neilsen viewers would agree to be implanted with a chip anyway, but what you’re proposing will be the death of free TV.
@zelda
because they keep moving the time on the Good Wife so I can not record it
If there’s a late game nataionally, record from 9:30-11:00; if there’s a late game regionally (maybe once a season) or on Masters weekend, record from 9:00-10:30/11:00.
It’s really not that hard.
the shows should be allowed to end their storys, not just stopped, we have a right to an ending no matter how low the ratings are!
No, you do NOT have a right to an ending.
You want to see a proper ending, then be ready to cough up a few million dollars to see it.
@Nick,
I agree with you on almost everything. Definitely agree on Nikita and Vegas. As for the predictions, i think the tgif thing is the hardest prediction of the season to be honest, but I think they go together more than you make it look like, meaning: i don’t see abc canning malibu and sticking with LMS (unless the ratings’ gap between both open big time, which has not been the case). I could see that situation if LMS was owned by ABC and MC was not, but it is the other way around. If I had to guess, I would say renewal for both but it is very hard to say honestly. Another one is 90210. While during fall I thought it would be renewed for a final season, if all shows continue to go on their high-end results (hart with 0.6, beauty with 0.7) and if it continues to go on its low-end (0.4), then i dont see it coming back, as it will actually be in a worse position than gg was last year… Also, the final season experiment for gg didn’t go nearly as well as one three hill’s last season. It is hard to tell. Mindy is also hard to tell, but i agree with the prediction of canceled.
Why is CS:NY likely to be cancelled but Blue Bloods certain to be renewed? Since coming back in the new year, CSI:NY has actually tied or beat Blue Bloods in the ratings so if you go by the CBS philosophy that they compare their own shows, then CSI:NY would be renewed and Blue Bloods not, unless CSI:NY is more expensive to make than Blue Bloods but is Gary Senise more expensive than Tom Seleck? I would think not. Remember, CBS tried Blue Bloods on a different night for part of the season last year and it did very poorly. So, these ratings are the best it is going to get and the show is only in it’s third season…