Bubble Watch: 'The Following' Premieres Well, But Remember "Alcatraz!" + 'Don't Trust the B----' & 'Ben and Kate' Now Canceled

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

January 27th, 2013

The Following premiered well with a 3.2 adults 18-49 rating. Bill notes that it would have to fall a long way (currently to below around a 1.7 adults 18-49 rating) to be at risk for cancellation.

Solid premieres are definitely much better than lousy premieres, but they still aren't very telling.  Remember, last January the two-hour premiere of Alcatraz averaged a 3.3 adults 18-49 rating. A little more than two months later its two-hour season finale averaged adults 18-49 ratings of 1.6 and 1.5 respectively and Alcatraz was canceled.

That does not mean that The Following will meet with the same fate as Alcatraz, it just means for now The Following is still on the bubble.

During the week Don't Trust the B---- in Apt. 23 was effectively canceled (protest the semantics as much as you like, even James Van Der Beek tweeted "Translation: we’ve basically been cancelled." Meanwhile Van Der Beek deserves some kind of TV by the Numbers award for being a realist and a class act with his tweets.



Ok, like many, he spelled Nielsen incorrectly, but otherwise that was pretty classy.

Ben and Kate was also effectively canceled by being pulled from the schedule and then just canceled outright. That means unless something moves down the list,  all of this season's "certain to be canceled" shows have now already been canceled.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust the B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made in Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben and Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Happy Endings ABC Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Likely Cancellation
Deception NBC Likely Cancellation
Guys with Kids NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Cleveland Show, The Fox On The Bubble
Following, The Fox On The Bubble
The Good Wife CBS On The Bubble
The Mentalist CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Hart of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Beauty and the Beast CW On The Bubble
The Mindy Project Fox On The Bubble
New Normal, The NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
The Middle ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Likely Renewal
Go On NBC Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Nashville ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon a Time ABC Certain Renewal
Scandal ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
How I Met Your Mother CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Private Practice ABC Canceled/Final Season
Gossip Girl CW Final SeasonFinished
Fringe Fox Final SeasonFinished
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season


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  • psychic

    This mysterious “Alcatraz!” sounds like a musical about a prison island. Maybe I should check it out.

  • katy

    Beauty and the Beast is a show boring and stupid. Kristin K. is bad actress. Should go to a drama school because it looks like a piece of wood!

  • Nancy Mahews

    I have not liked CSI: NY since Stella left. I quite watching it and the re-runs when it was renewed and CSI: Miami was not! That’s part of the reason I won’t watch H50 although the main reason is Castle is on opposite it. but I did not begin watching Castle until they moved CSI: MIami from Monday to that horrible Sunday night spot when you never knew when it was going to be on because of NFL overruns. So as for CSI New York Don’t care.

  • Ted Craig

    “The Neighbors: Why is this on likely renewal? The neighbors should be evicted by their landlord ABC. What A BIG disappointment! should be put on likely cancellation or some might consider it a bubble show, me I don’t.”

    The show’s ratings are good enough for renewal, although it might be moved (I can actually see it staying put). Plus, ABC owns it and I’m guessing it’s pretty cheap to produce.

    As for Van Der Beek, he is still blaming an “antiquated system” and poor programming for his show’s failure. I guess that’s Celebrity Fan Excuse Bingo.

  • Ted Craig

    Maybe that could be a new feature: Fan Excuse Bingo with the Stars.

  • JFC

    I’m still thinking that Fox might once again surprise us and announce they are renewing Fringe for another season.

  • nicola83

    Nashville for me is “Likely Renewed” and not “certain Renewed”.

    The neighbors for me is “on the bubble” and not “likely renewed”.

  • marion

    Why is Elementary on the Likely list when it has the coveted after Superbowl spot. That alone should make is a Certain Renewal.

  • timmay!!

    Alcatraz is the EXACT reason why I do not bother watching The Following. I don’t have time to invest in something that will probably get canceled. I tend to watch FX more than Fox anyway.

  • skillz

    The Following deserves a good 13 episode run before we start predicting it’s future. I for one thought the 1st episode was excellent but, I do not trust the major networks as they’re always looking for a scripted show with reality tv ratings. BTW…I HATE REALITY TV!!!

  • Jim

    I think everyone forgets that with Nashville, ABC has the additional exposure on radio as well as sales on iTunes and CD sales. In addition, I noticed some type of DVD showing the first few episodes is being released on Tuesday.

    While it pulls in average ratings for a 10PM drama, they aren’t terrible and ABC is making money off the music. That has to be accounted for just like syndication money.

  • John A

    How can The Neighbours be at likely Renewel? Below a 2.0 would ABC really renew that? Ive nothing against it but ABC would expect better from it like at least a 2.3.

  • Jo(k)e Internet

    *sharpens butchers knives*

  • JacobYates

    @bill gorman

    Just so you know, the fox shows that are on the bubble are not paired with each other. Mindy is at the bottom of the list while cleveland and the following are at the top.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Moe: “actually, Supernatural averages .89 on Weds night (according to a poster on the Wednesday overnight thread), and lately, it’s been actually getting .9. It’s only received one .7 for this season”

    Didn’t mean to slight Supernatural, I don’t follow its ratings closely. I knew it was doing somewhere around .7, better than most anything else except Arrow and TVD. If it’s been getting .9 it’s WAY better than HoD, 90210, BATB and the rest that are mostly down around .5-.6.

  • joke

    In case ABC exec’s missed it: The final showing of Last Resort at 8pm had the same numbers as Private Practice(had several seasons) at 10pm. Anyhow, 1 more reason for not watching network tv, poor planning

  • JacobYates

    @bill gorman

    Also, I think that tomorrow you should make a poll for Vegas’ ratings. Ask if people think it will do better now that its not competing with parenthood or if it will do even worse. Just a thought. Kind of throwing it out there.

  • network tv is boring

    @timmay, agree with you. But that goes for all networks. You start to get into a show and it’s cancelled.

  • halloween

    cw will cancel 4 or 5 shows this year

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “@bill gorman

    Just so you know, the fox shows that are on the bubble are not paired with each other. Mindy is at the bottom of the list while cleveland and the following are at the top.”

    Just so you know, Robert writes this post, not me, and my guess is he doesn’t care about that.

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