The Following premiered well with a 3.2 adults 18-49 rating. Bill notes that it would have to fall a long way (currently to below around a 1.7 adults 18-49 rating) to be at risk for cancellation.
Solid premieres are definitely much better than lousy premieres, but they still aren't very telling. Remember, last January the two-hour premiere of Alcatraz averaged a 3.3 adults 18-49 rating. A little more than two months later its two-hour season finale averaged adults 18-49 ratings of 1.6 and 1.5 respectively and Alcatraz was canceled.
That does not mean that The Following will meet with the same fate as Alcatraz, it just means for now The Following is still on the bubble.
During the week Don't Trust The B---- in Apt. 23 was effectively canceled (protest the semantics as much as you like, even James Van Der Beek tweeted "Translation: we’ve basically been cancelled." Meanwhile Van Der Beek deserves some kind of TV by the Numbers award for being a realist and a class act with his tweets.
But network TV is a business dictated by Nielson ratings. And while that’s an antiquated business model, it’s the only one they’ve got.
— James Van Der Beek (@vanderjames) January 22, 2013
And please, no bashing ABC. While I’m sure no one there would say they think they nailed it when it came to programming #Apt23 this year...
— James Van Der Beek (@vanderjames) January 22, 2013
You've got to give ABC props for ever picking us up in the first place. They took a shot at something original & edgy. I respect them for it
— James Van Der Beek (@vanderjames) January 22, 2013
Ok, like many, he spelled Nielsen incorrectly, but otherwise that was pretty classy.
Ben And Kate was also effectively canceled by being pulled from the schedule and then just canceled outright. That means unless something moves down the list, all of this season's "certain to be canceled" shows have now already been canceled.
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
| Show | Network | Status |
| 666 Park Avenue | ABC | Canceled |
| Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 | ABC | Canceled |
| Last Resort | ABC | Canceled |
| Made In Jersey | CBS | Canceled |
| Partners | CBS | Canceled |
| Emily Owens, M.D. | CW | Canceled |
| Ben And Kate | Fox | Canceled |
| The Mob Doctor | Fox | Canceled |
| Animal Practice | NBC | Canceled |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Happy Endings | ABC | Likely Cancellation |
| CSI: NY | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| Vegas | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| 1600 Penn | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Deception | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Guys With Kids | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Up All Night | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Last Man Standing | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Malibu Country | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Cleveland Show, The | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Following, The | Fox | On The Bubble |
| The Good Wife | CBS | On The Bubble |
| The Mentalist | CBS | On The Bubble |
| 90210 | CW | On The Bubble |
| Carrie Diaries, The | CW | On The Bubble |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | On The Bubble |
| Nikita | CW | On The Bubble |
| Beauty And The Beast | CW | On The Bubble |
| The Mindy Project | Fox | On The Bubble |
| New Normal, The | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Whitney | NBC | On The Bubble |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Castle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Neighbors, The | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Revenge | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Suburgatory | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| The Middle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Elementary | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Chicago Fire | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Go On | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Modern Family | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Nashville | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Scandal | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| CSI | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Arrow | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Supernatural | CW | Certain Renewal |
| The Vampire Diaries | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Glee | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| New Girl | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Grimm | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Parenthood | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Revolution | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | Renewed |
| American Dad | Fox | Renewed |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | Renewed |
| Bones | Fox | Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Renewed |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Private Practice | ABC | Canceled/Final Season |
| Gossip Girl | CW | Final SeasonFinished |
| Fringe | Fox | Final SeasonFinished |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Final Season |
| The Office | NBC | Final Season |
--
Nashville should not be listed under certain renewal. Revenge is more certain than Nashville. So if Revenge is listed as likly renewal, at this point I consider Nashville to be a Bubble Show.
This mysterious “Alcatraz!” sounds like a musical about a prison island. Maybe I should check it out.
Beauty and the Beast is a show boring and stupid. Kristin K. is bad actress. Should go to a drama school because it looks like a piece of wood!
I have not liked CSI: NY since Stella left. I quite watching it and the re-runs when it was renewed and CSI: Miami was not! That’s part of the reason I won’t watch H50 although the main reason is Castle is on opposite it. but I did not begin watching Castle until they moved CSI: MIami from Monday to that horrible Sunday night spot when you never knew when it was going to be on because of NFL overruns. So as for CSI New York Don’t care.
@Chris23
“The Neighbors: Why is this on likely renewal? The neighbors should be evicted by their landlord ABC. What A BIG disappointment! should be put on likely cancellation or some might consider it a bubble show, me I don’t.”
The show’s ratings are good enough for renewal, although it might be moved (I can actually see it staying put). Plus, ABC owns it and I’m guessing it’s pretty cheap to produce.
As for Van Der Beek, he is still blaming an “antiquated system” and poor programming for his show’s failure. I guess that’s Celebrity Fan Excuse Bingo.
Maybe that could be a new feature: Fan Excuse Bingo with the Stars.
I’m still thinking that Fox might once again surprise us and announce they are renewing Fringe for another season.
Nashville for me is “Likely Renewed” and not “certain Renewed”.
The neighbors for me is “on the bubble” and not “likely renewed”.
Why is Elementary on the Likely list when it has the coveted after Superbowl spot. That alone should make is a Certain Renewal.
Alcatraz is the EXACT reason why I do not bother watching The Following. I don’t have time to invest in something that will probably get canceled. I tend to watch FX more than Fox anyway.
The Following deserves a good 13 episode run before we start predicting it’s future. I for one thought the 1st episode was excellent but, I do not trust the major networks as they’re always looking for a scripted show with reality tv ratings. BTW…I HATE REALITY TV!!!
I think everyone forgets that with Nashville, ABC has the additional exposure on radio as well as sales on iTunes and CD sales. In addition, I noticed some type of DVD showing the first few episodes is being released on Tuesday.
While it pulls in average ratings for a 10PM drama, they aren’t terrible and ABC is making money off the music. That has to be accounted for just like syndication money.
How can The Neighbours be at likely Renewel? Below a 2.0 would ABC really renew that? Ive nothing against it but ABC would expect better from it like at least a 2.3.
*sharpens butchers knives*
@bill gorman
Just so you know, the fox shows that are on the bubble are not paired with each other. Mindy is at the bottom of the list while cleveland and the following are at the top.
Moe: “actually, Supernatural averages .89 on Weds night (according to a poster on the Wednesday overnight thread), and lately, it’s been actually getting .9. It’s only received one .7 for this season”
Didn’t mean to slight Supernatural, I don’t follow its ratings closely. I knew it was doing somewhere around .7, better than most anything else except Arrow and TVD. If it’s been getting .9 it’s WAY better than HoD, 90210, BATB and the rest that are mostly down around .5-.6.
In case ABC exec’s missed it: The final showing of Last Resort at 8pm had the same numbers as Private Practice(had several seasons) at 10pm. Anyhow, 1 more reason for not watching network tv, poor planning
@bill gorman
Also, I think that tomorrow you should make a poll for Vegas’ ratings. Ask if people think it will do better now that its not competing with parenthood or if it will do even worse. Just a thought. Kind of throwing it out there.
@timmay, agree with you. But that goes for all networks. You start to get into a show and it’s cancelled.
cw will cancel 4 or 5 shows this year