The Following premiered well with a 3.2 adults 18-49 rating. Bill notes that it would have to fall a long way (currently to below around a 1.7 adults 18-49 rating) to be at risk for cancellation.
Solid premieres are definitely much better than lousy premieres, but they still aren't very telling. Remember, last January the two-hour premiere of Alcatraz averaged a 3.3 adults 18-49 rating. A little more than two months later its two-hour season finale averaged adults 18-49 ratings of 1.6 and 1.5 respectively and Alcatraz was canceled.
That does not mean that The Following will meet with the same fate as Alcatraz, it just means for now The Following is still on the bubble.
During the week Don't Trust The B---- in Apt. 23 was effectively canceled (protest the semantics as much as you like, even James Van Der Beek tweeted "Translation: we’ve basically been cancelled." Meanwhile Van Der Beek deserves some kind of TV by the Numbers award for being a realist and a class act with his tweets.
But network TV is a business dictated by Nielson ratings. And while that’s an antiquated business model, it’s the only one they’ve got.
— James Van Der Beek (@vanderjames) January 22, 2013
And please, no bashing ABC. While I’m sure no one there would say they think they nailed it when it came to programming #Apt23 this year...
— James Van Der Beek (@vanderjames) January 22, 2013
You've got to give ABC props for ever picking us up in the first place. They took a shot at something original & edgy. I respect them for it
— James Van Der Beek (@vanderjames) January 22, 2013
Ok, like many, he spelled Nielsen incorrectly, but otherwise that was pretty classy.
Ben And Kate was also effectively canceled by being pulled from the schedule and then just canceled outright. That means unless something moves down the list, all of this season's "certain to be canceled" shows have now already been canceled.
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
| Show | Network | Status |
| 666 Park Avenue | ABC | Canceled |
| Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 | ABC | Canceled |
| Last Resort | ABC | Canceled |
| Made In Jersey | CBS | Canceled |
| Partners | CBS | Canceled |
| Emily Owens, M.D. | CW | Canceled |
| Ben And Kate | Fox | Canceled |
| The Mob Doctor | Fox | Canceled |
| Animal Practice | NBC | Canceled |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Happy Endings | ABC | Likely Cancellation |
| CSI: NY | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| Vegas | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| 1600 Penn | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Deception | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Guys With Kids | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Up All Night | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Last Man Standing | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Malibu Country | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Cleveland Show, The | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Following, The | Fox | On The Bubble |
| The Good Wife | CBS | On The Bubble |
| The Mentalist | CBS | On The Bubble |
| 90210 | CW | On The Bubble |
| Carrie Diaries, The | CW | On The Bubble |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | On The Bubble |
| Nikita | CW | On The Bubble |
| Beauty And The Beast | CW | On The Bubble |
| The Mindy Project | Fox | On The Bubble |
| New Normal, The | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Whitney | NBC | On The Bubble |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Castle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Neighbors, The | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Revenge | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Suburgatory | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| The Middle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Elementary | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Chicago Fire | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Go On | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Modern Family | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Nashville | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Scandal | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| CSI | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Arrow | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Supernatural | CW | Certain Renewal |
| The Vampire Diaries | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Glee | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| New Girl | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Grimm | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Parenthood | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Revolution | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | Renewed |
| American Dad | Fox | Renewed |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | Renewed |
| Bones | Fox | Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Renewed |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Private Practice | ABC | Canceled/Final Season |
| Gossip Girl | CW | Final SeasonFinished |
| Fringe | Fox | Final SeasonFinished |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Final Season |
| The Office | NBC | Final Season |
--
“@bill gorman
Just so you know, the fox shows that are on the bubble are not paired with each other. Mindy is at the bottom of the list while cleveland and the following are at the top.”
Just so you know, Robert writes this post, not me, and my guess is he doesn’t care about that.
@Tyler – Actually I think that Last Man Standing and Malibu Country is a package deal. Either both are renewed for Fridays next season or ABC dumps both of them and starts fresh with comedy. Happy Endings will be kept only based on syndication but ABC will try to shop it to other networks like Cougar Town. The Neighbors probably will be cancelled only because ABC has too many comedies and instead of extend their block like they tried this year they may keep it to Fridays and Wednesdays. If Neighbors is axed, ABC may try to keep HTLWYP.
I amazed that March – April schedules haven’t been released yet. I really want to know how are they going to handle Go On and TNN season finales. If they’re bringing these shows back next season, both finales better air after The Voice.
@AiPod – I’m sure NBC will air the Go On and NN finales after The Voice, NBC will try anything to save them since other than them Parks is the only guaranteed comedy to return. NBC will save the tuesday shows.
Cancelled:
Happy Endings
Vegas
1600 Penn
Deception
Up All Night
The Cleveland Show
The Good Wife
90210
The Carrie Diaries
The Mindy Project
The New Normal
All else renewed, including Community.
i love you dawson!
i agree w dan, the nbc tues sitcoms would have to completely fall in the gutter before renewals are announced to not show up next year.
@MichaelChickless – 90210 will get a final season, Mindy Project will be renewed so FOX doesnt go 0-3 comedy wise, and NBC will renew The New Normal so they have a few returning single camera comedies to rebuild thursdays. Good Wife will probably get a final season but if CBS cant get a syndication deal, then its dead. The only way Happy Endings can be saved is if another network picks it up.
As for The Following how it performs tonight and the next few weeks will seal its fate.
@Dan
I wouldn’t be surprised if Fox went 0-3 this year. That’s not a big deal. The shows that get the pity renewals are the ones that prevent a network from going 0-5 or even 0-6.
Touch fans should just give up on Touch at this point. It dropped from a 3.9 premiere rating to a 1.3 finale rating. A 1.3! The only reason that it wasn’t cancelled after that was because Fox had already renewed it. Plus, Fox has pushed back Touch’s second season premiere month after month until finally saying screw it and putting it on Friday, probably while saying, “There’s absolutely no conceivable way that this could go wrong! Pass the cocaine!”
@JacobYates – The ratings for that random lost episode aired in September were horrible too, but I doubt FOX takes that into account. Touch and Fringe probably would have paired well together and FOX could have paired Bones and Touch had they pulled The Mob Doctor in November but its preemption to February is basically a way of FOX saying “We give up on this show”. The show couldn’t do any better than Fringe did 9pm Fridays so I doubt it will see a third season.
@Nick – I don’t think Mindy will be renewed for that reason alone, I think there are other factors. By beating New Normal and Apartment 23 recently, it seems Mindy is coming out strong. If it continues its upward trend, Mindy Project will be renewed. If Fox salvages Mindy Project and The Following from this season, they will be OK for next season.
My guess even before ratings
Renewed: Family Guy, The Simpsons, Bob’s Burgers, American Dad, Bones, Glee, New Girl, Raising Hope, Mindy Project, The Following, Kitchen Nightmares, Idol, X Factor, Hell’s Kitchen
Cancelled: Fringe, Mob Doctor, Ben & Kate, Touch, The Cleveland Show
Of course Mindy, Cleveland, Touch and Following could go either way. Cleveland has not been renewed yet, so that’s a very bad sign. Touch airing on fridays basically seals its death. And as for newcomers Following and Mindy, FOX will probably renew them because its doubtful as of now that they can do better.
Not that this means anything, but NBC and Fox have ordered A LOT of comedy pilots, so 0-3 is a possibility.
Why is Criminal Minds a lock to be renewed? Is there some kind of deal they have, something with syndication or something that goes on for X amount of time? Next season would be the ninth year, which is alot, any ideas of how many more years the show has? The ratings are solid but hardly mind blowing for a Wednesday night slot. I’m not questioning the index rating, I’m just wondering why.
NOOOO Deception!!
This show should not be on NBC.
90210, Hart of Dixie get off the bubble. i need another season.
Revenge, Middle, Elementary, Hawaii Five-0, Chicago Fire- Good but i’d like it to be certain they’re coming back.
YAY for Modern Family, Arrow, Supernatural, Glee, Parenthood.
I’m over Scandal & Vampire Diaries so i can’t get excited for them.
Why the hell is Raising Hope still around?
@Craig
Because it’s the only funny sitcom that Fox airs.
ABC could not possibly be that dumb and cancel the well crafted and well written NASHVILLE. THIS IS THE BEST SHOW ON TV RIGHT NOW! (I reserve the right to change that after a few more episodes of the following). ABC really helped out the NOT-AS-GOOD but still GREAT Scandal and look how well that turned out. The show went from high 1′s to mid to high 2′s and this could just as well happen to NASHVILLE.
Poor Nashville has the worst freakin lead-in ever! SUBERGATORY, ARE YOU FOR REAL? Nashville deserves so much better and SUBERG should of NEVER EVER got that slot. It’s turned out to be a REAL ratings loser in respect to keeping any audience from MF.
They better promote the HECK out of it during the ACADEMY AWARDS like they did last year with REVENGE.
Wow, this is the first time it’s been obvious you guys have no understanding of the television/film industry, and somehow the commenters on this site hang on your every word.
The Likely Cancellations and On The Bubble shows are all wrong.
it’s 2013, and you may not be aware that television studios also benefit financially from international viewings, and syndication and potential.
You can no longer suggest that TV shows will be cancelled based solely on US Fast Nationals.
The commentary added to the ratings as well as the comments from idiot posters is ridiculous – I can see why Hollywood hates you.
@sweetd
Oh, really? Because Bill and/or Robert predicted every single show correctly last year (the exception being Body of Proof) using ratings.
And besides, they don’t use Fast Nationals. They use the finals that come out later. Of course, they’re closely aligned, but still.
@Nick
“Oh, really? Because Bill and/or Robert predicted every single show correctly last year (the exception being Body of Proof) using ratings.”
Looking at this time last year the likes of “House”, “Ringer”, “The Secret Circle”, “Rob” and “Chelsea” were likely renewals on the renew/cancellation index, Other ‘mistakes’ included having “CSI:Miami” ahead of “CSI:NY” (and for that matter “Unforgettable”). The Bubble index made many of the same mistakes and expected “Fringe”, “Whitney”, “CSI:NY” and “Unforgettable” to get canned.
Bill, Robert nor anyone else can be expected to get everything right so suggesting they do so when they don’t is silly.
If you’re going to mention predictions made in mid-May I’d make the analogy that this is akin to predicting the Kentucky Derby winner with a couple of lengths to go. Hardly noteworthy unlike predicting the placings half-way through the race as everyone is trying to do right now.
Touch has only been renewed for 13 episodes and wasn’t picked up for more than 13 last season. So even if it does see a full season pick up and a third season, which it won’t, it wouldn’t have syndication benefits. It’s done.