The Following premiered well with a 3.2 adults 18-49 rating. Bill notes that it would have to fall a long way (currently to below around a 1.7 adults 18-49 rating) to be at risk for cancellation.
Solid premieres are definitely much better than lousy premieres, but they still aren't very telling. Remember, last January the two-hour premiere of Alcatraz averaged a 3.3 adults 18-49 rating. A little more than two months later its two-hour season finale averaged adults 18-49 ratings of 1.6 and 1.5 respectively and Alcatraz was canceled.
That does not mean that The Following will meet with the same fate as Alcatraz, it just means for now The Following is still on the bubble.
During the week Don't Trust The B---- in Apt. 23 was effectively canceled (protest the semantics as much as you like, even James Van Der Beek tweeted "Translation: we’ve basically been cancelled." Meanwhile Van Der Beek deserves some kind of TV by the Numbers award for being a realist and a class act with his tweets.
But network TV is a business dictated by Nielson ratings. And while that’s an antiquated business model, it’s the only one they’ve got.
— James Van Der Beek (@vanderjames) January 22, 2013
And please, no bashing ABC. While I’m sure no one there would say they think they nailed it when it came to programming #Apt23 this year...
— James Van Der Beek (@vanderjames) January 22, 2013
You've got to give ABC props for ever picking us up in the first place. They took a shot at something original & edgy. I respect them for it
— James Van Der Beek (@vanderjames) January 22, 2013
Ok, like many, he spelled Nielsen incorrectly, but otherwise that was pretty classy.
Ben And Kate was also effectively canceled by being pulled from the schedule and then just canceled outright. That means unless something moves down the list, all of this season's "certain to be canceled" shows have now already been canceled.
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
| Show | Network | Status |
| 666 Park Avenue | ABC | Canceled |
| Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 | ABC | Canceled |
| Last Resort | ABC | Canceled |
| Made In Jersey | CBS | Canceled |
| Partners | CBS | Canceled |
| Emily Owens, M.D. | CW | Canceled |
| Ben And Kate | Fox | Canceled |
| The Mob Doctor | Fox | Canceled |
| Animal Practice | NBC | Canceled |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Happy Endings | ABC | Likely Cancellation |
| CSI: NY | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| Vegas | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| 1600 Penn | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Deception | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Guys With Kids | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Up All Night | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Last Man Standing | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Malibu Country | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Cleveland Show, The | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Following, The | Fox | On The Bubble |
| The Good Wife | CBS | On The Bubble |
| The Mentalist | CBS | On The Bubble |
| 90210 | CW | On The Bubble |
| Carrie Diaries, The | CW | On The Bubble |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | On The Bubble |
| Nikita | CW | On The Bubble |
| Beauty And The Beast | CW | On The Bubble |
| The Mindy Project | Fox | On The Bubble |
| New Normal, The | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Whitney | NBC | On The Bubble |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Castle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Neighbors, The | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Revenge | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Suburgatory | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| The Middle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Elementary | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Chicago Fire | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Go On | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Modern Family | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Nashville | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Scandal | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| CSI | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Arrow | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Supernatural | CW | Certain Renewal |
| The Vampire Diaries | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Glee | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| New Girl | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Grimm | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Parenthood | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Revolution | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | Renewed |
| American Dad | Fox | Renewed |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | Renewed |
| Bones | Fox | Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Renewed |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Private Practice | ABC | Canceled/Final Season |
| Gossip Girl | CW | Final SeasonFinished |
| Fringe | Fox | Final SeasonFinished |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Final Season |
| The Office | NBC | Final Season |
--
@Mr Mumble – both lists are based on what actually happened to that point when the lists are published, and are subject to recalculation each week, based on new data obtained.
Example – Let’s have a show called “Jail or No Jail”, on the IBC Network, and the relative demo of it, compared to the network demo average, was like this:
Episode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
JonJ .95 .93 .91 .88 .90 .91 .88
Okay, so far, as of week 7, it’s probably a bubble show, or maybe a likely to be renewed.
Now, presto, the next 6 weeks:
Episode 8 9 10 11 12 13
JonJ .85 .84 .81 .83 .80 .80
Now, ignoring these last 6 weeks of data, which you would have done, you would have missed it going the other way, to likely to be cancelled or bubble…
…then, the new Lee Majors show, “The Night The Reindeer Died” aired in JonJ’s slot and got a 3.2, then a 3.0, then a 2.9, leaving it with an index of 1.33…
…now you may have Jail or No Jail survive, depending on slot availability, and a lot of other “maybe” factors, or not…and since it is JonJ’s first season, the Syndication Gods (R) (c) CBS, Inc. will not save it…
…but you would say Bill and Robert missed, yet they never claimed that it was a Millionaire “final answer” in any week, ever.
I havent been following The Following since I dont think THe Following will develop a large following of followers who will follow The Following, even when the Following follows a show that has a following of its own, and following the summer break The Following will probably lose half its followers if you follow my thinking.
I liked “Ben and Kate”. About “Don’t Trust the B—-” , I liked so much the first season, but the second, I do not kow, I feel was more than the same, they need to evolve a little bit. An antagonist for the protagonist as that actor were like her that played in one chapter would be great. I do not know, I feel the second season stuck.
America is too stupid to get something like The B in 23…thats why the Bachelor is still on after all these years…its mindless.
ncis renewed, harmon signs new contract
Wasn’t HIMYM renewed like a week ago?
Sorry, or not. 3 days. After this was posted, ignore my last post.
I can’t believe The Following would be even considered to be canceled! It’s intense and well written. I also really enjoy Last Man Standing for a 30 min sit-com it makes you think about things! And Apt #23?? Well that is too bad cuz it’s pretty funny! I think JVD’s self deprecating and self promoting humor all at once is a riot! YAY for Revenge!!! awesome awesome show!
Last Man Standing is an excellent show. The fact that the show doesn’t idolize Obama and has a more conservative bent is probably why it was sent to the Friday nite graveyard. You can’t go against the liberal mindset without paying a price. I hope it survives. As for Malibu Country, the only good thing about that show is Lily Tomlin. Reba is just weird