ABC: 'Last Man Standing,' 'Malibu Country' Still "Toss Ups" To Be Canceled Or Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 29th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 27, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Happy Endings :cry: :cry: 0.57
Private Practice canceled 0.63
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.63
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.70
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.97
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.98
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Nashville :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.18
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.35
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.38
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.53
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.20

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Guessing at the ratings threshold for the renewal of Friday sitcoms Last Man Standing and Malibu Country is tricky because there is relatively little past data for scripted show renewals on Fridays, which clearly can come with lower ratings averages than for shows on other nights. I usually assume ~30% "handicap" for Friday ratings, and on that basis Last Man Standing's 2013 average is looking reasonably good, and Malibu Country is somewhat shakier. The reason I still have both of them at "toss up" is because they've both somewhat inconsistent.  I'm hoping as we go forward in the spring, it becomes a bit more obvious, either positive or negative.

Did last week's 1.9 rating for Nashville make my move to "certain renewal" a week ago a bit shaky? Perhaps. Another below average week and the show will likely be back down to "likely renewal".

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Shim

    Who cancels inexpensive sitcoms that get 4 million plus for RERUNS on a Fri night?

  • rob60990

    I’m not sure how inexpensive they are with Tim Allen & Reba as leads. While Last Man Standing is doing better, ABC produces Malibu Country. They definitely want to get a comedy to work they own so they benefit from syndication. However Malibu Country has bled a lot from its premiere. Its tricky plus Shark Tank does great on Friday.

  • DM

    I would love to see Last Man Standing get renewed.

  • Nick

    Castle better get renewed. I just recently got into it and it’s great.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Who cancels inexpensive sitcoms that get 4 million plus for RERUNS on a Fri night?”

    Please post the income statements for those shows, since you seem to have them.

    What, you have nothing, and you’re just making a nonsense claim? Who’d have guessed?

  • Dave

    Scandal, Once, Revenge& Modern Family all certain! :D

  • Jonay

    Is there any chance Abc will move happy endings to Friday next year if renewed

  • NEK52

    @ Jonay

    I am a fan of MC, but that is what I am thinking is going to happen that it will work out a deal with Sony and it will be paired with LMS. That is my guess anyways.

  • Ali

    I just cant believe that Revenge has fallen to the bottom of certain renewal….I hope the episode of Feb 10th will restore its ratings back to the normal range 2.3 – 2.7

  • Maximillian

    Reba “reportedly” makes $100k an episode. ABC will have a hard time justifying that next season with these ratings.

  • BL

    ABC: (suggested schedule)
    Mondays and Wednesdays need change. Sundays, Tuesdays, Thursdays through Saturdays are fine.

    Mondays:
    8:00 The Bachelor (until mid-March)/Dancing with the Stars
    10:00 Nashville (both shows involve music, why not put them together?)

    Wednesdays:
    8:00 The Middle
    8:30 The Neighbors (until Mar 27)/Suburgatory (until 4/24)/Family Tools (begins 5/1)
    9:00 Modern Family
    9:30 Suburgatory (until Mar 27)/How to Live with Your Parents (begins 4/3)
    10:00 Castle (its had its time slot after DWTS/The Bachelor through the whole series. Its time to see how it does without DWTS/The Bachelor for its lead-in)

  • Honey Badger

    last week’s 1.9 rating for Nashville and still the show looks to be renewed. My has ABC fallen, only a few of their shows would not be cancelled if they were at CBS.

    What would you do to fix ABC?

  • Justin

    I still miss V. How many of ABC’s shows have to get canceled for them to bring V back?

  • Fred

    @Justin

    Same

  • Dude

    BL, please never go into scheduling. That rotating schedule would kill all of those shows and Nashville has nothing to do with The Bachelor or DWTS (cause music really makes a ballroom dancing show the same thing as a show about country music). Also, Tuesday is fine the way it is when both of its comedies are getting cancelled???? It’s Tuesday night and Thursday at 8pm that are their trouble spots.

  • SF

    I like Last Man Standing. I just forget it comes on Friday nites! I hope they get another season!!

  • Frank

    There’s no way that ABC would pair Last Man Standing and Happy Endings. The two shows have virtually no audience overlap.

    And $100,000 an episode for Reba seems like a steal. She has millions of fans that would watch the show even if it’s not that good. She must have a great back end deal and is clearly hoping the show will get to syndication.

    Personally, I think Malibu Country has been getting better and if it continues on that path I’d like to see a second season.

  • merrranga

    @justin

    all of them.

  • Rare

    @Frank ABC put Last Man Standing and Cougar Town together, those shows had no audience overlap either. And really, neither did Dancing With the Stars and Happy Endings. If ABC wants to renew Happy Endings for syndication, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them throwing it on Fridays behind LMS.

  • ethan

    I too miss V, and also Flashforward…i remember the year ABC launched these two it seemed at first like they were going to be the twp next big things

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