ABC: 'Last Man Standing,' 'Malibu Country' Still "Toss Ups" To Be Canceled Or Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 29th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 27, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Happy Endings :cry: :cry: 0.57
Private Practice canceled 0.63
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.63
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.70
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.97
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.98
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Nashville :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.18
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.35
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.38
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.53
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.20

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Guessing at the ratings threshold for the renewal of Friday sitcoms Last Man Standing and Malibu Country is tricky because there is relatively little past data for scripted show renewals on Fridays, which clearly can come with lower ratings averages than for shows on other nights. I usually assume ~30% "handicap" for Friday ratings, and on that basis Last Man Standing's 2013 average is looking reasonably good, and Malibu Country is somewhat shakier. The reason I still have both of them at "toss up" is because they've both somewhat inconsistent.  I'm hoping as we go forward in the spring, it becomes a bit more obvious, either positive or negative.

Did last week's 1.9 rating for Nashville make my move to "certain renewal" a week ago a bit shaky? Perhaps. Another below average week and the show will likely be back down to "likely renewal".

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • detroit_fan

    I really enjoyed LMS last season. I tuned in for episode 1 this season was really turned off by the political storyline and the new girl. Haven’t watched it since

  • Jake

    $100,000/episode for Reba on “Malibu Country” is a bargain compared to the reported $250,000/episode Tim Allen is pulling for “Last Man Standing.” I myself am a fan of both shows and watch regularly, and as a fan I concede that the quality fluctuates. Nevertheless, they are compatible, with MC holding on average 90% of LMS’ lead-in.

    Shark Tank proves ABC can do better in the demo with reality (and reality repeats). I would assume that what ultimately will determine the fates are the revenue prospects for off-network and foreign licensing of the scripted fare vs. reality. Pure conjecture, of course.

  • Nerdbot

    “Another below average week and the show (Nashville) will likely be back down to “likely renewal.”"

    How many weeks of Revenge performing below average week will it take to move it to “likely renewal”? I love Revenge and I’d be happy if it gets the ratings that it had when the season started, but I’m curious.

  • Fred

    @Ethan

    I also miss V and Flashforward. I was a huge fan of Lost as well.

    I’m now enjoying Once Upon A Time and the soon to be departed 666 Park Ave. I can’t get enough of Sci/Fi/Fantasy shows.

  • Devin

    @detroit-fan

    The premier of LMS was the worst episode of the season. It’s been pretty good since. I really like the interaction with the new neighbors. It’s kind of a watered down Archie Bunker and George Jefferson relationship.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “How many weeks of Revenge performing below average week will it take to move it to “likely renewal”? I love Revenge and I’d be happy if it gets the ratings that it had when the season started, but I’m curious.”

    I tend to mentally discount the results vs. big events, so I wouldn’t be too worried about Revenge unless it stays low after the Sunday special events have passed.

  • Frank

    @Rare You make some interesting points, but those cases aren’t direct comparisons. Cougar Town only went into the post LMS spot because ABC had already cancelled two previous shows it had lined up for that timeslot – Man Up and Work It – and it didn’t have any compatible shows left. And you’re right that Dancing with the Stars is a terrible lead in for Happy Endings, but networks are more willing to have incompatible lead ins on the hour than the half hour. On the hour, networks are hoping to steal viewers from other network shows that have just ended, but on the half hour that’s only a possibility if the other networks are also airing half hour programs.

    Anyway, I just can’t imagine them intentionally pairing the two together to start off the fall season.

  • davidwatts

    where are these ‘reported’ costs of the shows coming from? links please

  • Bern

    ABC better renew Mailbu Country. WAY better than LMS.

  • Chad

    @BILL What are the odds of a TBS pickup to get HE to syndication?

  • Chad

    versus an ABC pickup

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “@BILL What are the odds of a TBS pickup to get HE to syndication?”

    No way for me to accurately make a guess.

  • Dan

    I dont watch Malibu Country but my sister likes it so i hope it gets renewed. LMS is a very funny show, and unlike some people i loved the political episode. And its getting better and better. It deserves (and hope) to be renewed.

  • The End

    @davidwatts

    The blunt answer would be that they’re coming out of that persons rear end, as no other way would describe it better. Take no notice.

  • Marie

    I do watch Malibu Country, Revenge & Nashville. I absolutely love Nashville & Revenge was getting a little weird but has picked up again so I certainly hope these two don’t get cancelled.

  • steve

    If ABC cancels Happy Endings I hope TBS picks it up and puts it on after Cougar Town!

    Screw you ABC!

  • Jake

    @DavidWatts: Although The End finds him or herself amusing, these numbers do not emerge from anybody’s “rear end.” TV Guide Magazine published an article in August reporting salaries. A shortened version is available online, while the full version (which listed Tim Allen at $250K and Reba at $100K) was published in book.
    http://www.tvguide.com/News/TVs-Highest-Paid-Stars-1051754.aspx
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/08/tv-star-salaries-2012_n_1755237.html

  • the_trouble_with_the_truth

    @ The End get a clue before you post a snarky comment. reba’s salary per episode was in the print edition if tv guide.

  • Ultima

    @Honey Badger
    What would you do to fix ABC?

    Switch their reality competitions to a Bachelor (fall), DWTS (winter), Bachelorette (spring) rotation and start fresh on Tuesdays.

  • Tony JJ

    Reba at 100k per episode isn’t that bad, most of the other cast outside of Lily Tomlin and Sara Rue (which I can’t imagine are making THAT much, everyone else in the cast probably make pennies compared to other comedies. Plus with it being produced by ABC Studios I don’t think ABC would cancel it without giving it a second chance reruns in the summer could get people interested and the show has gotten better each episode.

    Last Man Standing on the other hand is a hard one to guess. It’s produced by 20th Century Fox and Tim Allen does have a hefty salary for it’s low ratings, and without any syndication money coming to ABC, I don’t know if it’s worth ABC’s time. (Although it’s a decent show and has also gotten better especially compared to the season premiere)

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