ABC: 'Last Man Standing,' 'Malibu Country' Still "Toss Ups" To Be Canceled Or Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 29th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 27, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Happy Endings :cry: :cry: 0.57
Private Practice canceled 0.63
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.63
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.70
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.97
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.98
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Nashville :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.18
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.35
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.38
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.53
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.20

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Guessing at the ratings threshold for the renewal of Friday sitcoms Last Man Standing and Malibu Country is tricky because there is relatively little past data for scripted show renewals on Fridays, which clearly can come with lower ratings averages than for shows on other nights. I usually assume ~30% "handicap" for Friday ratings, and on that basis Last Man Standing's 2013 average is looking reasonably good, and Malibu Country is somewhat shakier. The reason I still have both of them at "toss up" is because they've both somewhat inconsistent.  I'm hoping as we go forward in the spring, it becomes a bit more obvious, either positive or negative.

Did last week's 1.9 rating for Nashville make my move to "certain renewal" a week ago a bit shaky? Perhaps. Another below average week and the show will likely be back down to "likely renewal".

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Andrew

    I hope LMS and MC are saved they are both funny and remind me of the TGIF days we need that especially nowadays. As far as The Neighbors is concerned if and only if it happens that will be wonderful if it is renewed my mom and I love that show its hilarious witty and clever each week especially the gingerbread episode I laughed till I cried on that one lol

  • Joe

    I hope they renew LMS. MC is terrible so it could go either way. More to point, why do the site editors openly attack those who comment, thereby alienating them and others who read the comment and see people being attacked for something always small and otherwise insignificant? What a way to build the site’s readership…not!

  • Michael

    “Malibu Country” is produced by ABC, “Last Man Standing” is not. This should be a deciding factor if the 2 shows remain close.

  • Phoebe

    @ Honey Badger

    You thoughts on Nashville are dead on. I can’t believe Nashville is not canceled with its low viewership. AbC has canceled programs in the past that had higher ratings. Are people so desperate that they will watch anything. I don’t know which is worse, Reality shows or scripted programs that imitate reality shows.
    I just gave up on wednesdays on ABC

  • Josh

    Is it just me or were the episodes of Happy Endings from tonight (Tuesday, January 29th) funnier and seem more on par with the first season? I love how Alex was the biggest prankster and started the whole pranking game. The wedding planning episode was cute too. I hope Happy Endings gets renewed it seems like it has started to come back to its fundamentals.

  • Josh

    @Phoebe

    Nashville is by far one of ABC’s best new shows. I love the music, drama and the actors are superb. I think it was put in a crappy time slot I don’t think they should have moved Revenge when it had been doing so well there but oh well. I think if Red Widow gets picked up they should pair it with Revenge, I think they could do well together that is if Red Widow does well.

  • Mark

    The only way HE gets renewed is from TBS and pairing it with Cougar Town (which might actually be a good match).

  • Josh

    @Fred and Ethan

    I miss FlashForward as well. I couldn’t get into 666 Park Ave, every time I see the main character I think of Grey’s Anatomy where she played a doctor or the reboot of Charlie’s Angels where she played an angel and that lasted all of 6 episodes I believe. I too enjoy some sci-fi. I used to watch X-Files, X-Men, Alcatraz, Millenium. Seems like no one has an imagination anymore they are all to busy watching crappy reality tv, where we are paying teens to say it is ok to be a teen mom, or lets watch some old actress who can’t find a job and is low on cash try to dance, or watch some overweight people lose weight which they should be doing on their own.

  • Josh

    @Mark

    Idk Sony may make a deal with ABC to reach syndication.

  • Tony JJ

    @Josh Yes! Completely agree. Tonight’s 2 episodes of happy endings were two of the best episodes in a long time. Those and the kickball one were great. I hope ratings are up tomorrow and I hope it’s renewed

  • Tony JJ

    @Josh @Mark
    It’s possible. ABC knows there’s an audience they just lost it when they moved it. But considering ABC co produces it with Sony could/should give it an edge to be renewed. Maybe show reruns on ABC family? They did that with the first season right before season 2 premiered.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Castle and Revenge will get another season, so I’m good here.

    Ali, I don’t think Revenge has “fallen to the bottom certain renewal”. There’s a ways below 1.00 on the Renew/Cancel Index before it hits bottom. Worry when it hits below .80-.90.

    BUT my guess is it will get a third season based on its current ratings – and then the syndication gods kick in and it will get a fourth season, especially if the producers realize season two was a bit too complicated and they clean it up in season three.

  • http://www.revista-e.com/http:/www.revista-e.com/las-petroleras-han-aumentado-sus-beneficios-un-20-e Sam Alexander

    More than any year in recent memory, the survival of shows this season did not hinge on ratings.

  • Neoas

    The fact that ABC sacrificed DTTB23 early in what looks like an attempt to get all of HE’s episodes aired instead seems to make it seem like HE is more of a priority to ABC than we might think. I think it’s too far along for them to cancell at this point. They easily could’ve pulled HE early too never airing their episodes at all, so even with the back-to-back burn off, I still say the fact that they’re airing the full season is better news for them than not getting to air all the episdoes, which it looked like was what would’ve happened before.

  • Ted Craig

    @Josh

    It’s not just you. HE was very good last night. However, it was also the VD episode and it aired two weeks early. Not a good sign. People seem to put too much stock in TBS picking it up. Remind me how many shows they picked up before Cougar Town? It may be saved by another venue or brought back by ABC, but it probably won’t air in the fall, if that happens.

  • Mark

    I agree that HE has been MUCH better lately. I nearly gave up on it and in fact skipped over parts of the first dozen episodes. But the last few have been back to great form (likely too late). The prank episode was excellent.

    And I agree that while it isn’t likely that TBS will pick it up, I think that is the only shot it has. Its ratings on ABC are far too low to pick up and its not an appropriate fit for ABC Friday nor ABC Family. I see the Neighbors and possibly Suburgatory moving to Friday if anything.

  • Andrew

    Joe
    Posted January 29, 2013 at 7:23 PM

    I hope they renew LMS. MC is terrible so it could go either way. More to point, why do the site editors openly attack those who comment, thereby alienating them and others who read the comment and see people being attacked for something always small and otherwise insignificant? What a way to build the site’s readership…not!

    Very good question.

  • sydney davis

    I hope ABC renews the Friday night comedies. There are so many shows that have not rated as well as MC and LMS and they stay on season after season. I hope Malibu Country is given a chance-it gets better every week and a little more tv advertsing may do wonders for the show. Reba is great and so is her cast.Are you listening ABC?

  • omabin

    I think these friday comedies are true definitions of bubble shows. Reaally hard to tell whether they will be renewed or not, because unlike most shows, I don’t believe its relative ratings compared to the other scripted shows on the network are the important factor. My bet is still that they will both come back. I don’t know what will happen with all of ABC comedies though. I think at this point they should leave the comedy on tuesday idea already. But with suburgatory coming back, if how to live with your parents does well and warrant a renewal, where do they premiere their new comedy? They are certain to pick up at least one. The there is also happy endings, which could be renewed, and the neighbours, which is a bubble show but could in theory be renewed… Maybe they will actually try tuesdays again, but i think that will be a mistake.

  • Daniel

    I stopped watching Last Man Standing after they changed the actress who played the oldest daughter. It wasnt so much that they changed the actress (but it was part of it), but it was the new direction the show was taking. I dont like how the new actress plays the daughter. I dont like that the father of the boy is now a permanent character. More importantly, its now become All in the Family. Instead of being Archie vs. Meat head, its now Tim Allen vs his son in law (even though they arent married)

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