ABC: 'Last Man Standing,' 'Malibu Country' Still "Toss Ups" To Be Canceled Or Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 29th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 27, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Happy Endings :cry: :cry: 0.57
Private Practice canceled 0.63
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.63
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.70
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.97
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.98
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Nashville :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.18
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.35
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.38
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.53
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.20

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Guessing at the ratings threshold for the renewal of Friday sitcoms Last Man Standing and Malibu Country is tricky because there is relatively little past data for scripted show renewals on Fridays, which clearly can come with lower ratings averages than for shows on other nights. I usually assume ~30% "handicap" for Friday ratings, and on that basis Last Man Standing's 2013 average is looking reasonably good, and Malibu Country is somewhat shakier. The reason I still have both of them at "toss up" is because they've both somewhat inconsistent.  I'm hoping as we go forward in the spring, it becomes a bit more obvious, either positive or negative.

Did last week's 1.9 rating for Nashville make my move to "certain renewal" a week ago a bit shaky? Perhaps. Another below average week and the show will likely be back down to "likely renewal".

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Becca Keener

    I do not understand how so many people could be faithful viewers of Malibu Country and it be in the renewal;cancel slot. It is a really cute show that will never be any competition for shows that have anguish and pain, blood and gore in them;that is why we love it. It is a nice change.Hope it stays on tv.

  • smitty

    Last man standing is great and so is malibu…but why they put them on friday night is beyond me…everyone knows friday night is were programs go to die…just not fair…last year last man standing did great!

  • Nick

    What ABC should do for 2013-2014:

    Mon-
    8: Dancing With the Stars/ The Bachelor
    10: Nashville

    Tue-
    8: Dancing With the Stars: Results/ Winter Wipeout
    9: Shark Tank
    10: Body of Proof

    Wed-
    8: The Middle
    8:30: Suburgatory
    9: Modern Family
    9:30: Knock Knock (new)
    10: Birthright (new)

    Thu-
    8: Grey’s Anatomy
    9: Revenge
    10: Rise & Fall (new)

    Fri-
    8: Last Man Standing
    8:30: Malibu Country
    9: Now What? (new)
    9:30: The Neighbors
    10: 20/20

    Sat- (midseason)
    8: Shark Tank (R)/ Winter Wipeout (R)
    9: Castle (R)
    10: Primetime: What Would You Do?

    Sun-
    7: AFHV
    8: Once Upon a Time
    9: SHEILD (new)
    10: Castle

    Midseason- Scandal, Red Widow, How to Live With Your Parents (for the Rest of Your Life)

  • Nick

    @smitty

    everyone knows friday night is were programs go to die

    Friday is not where programs go to die. Shark Tank, Primetime: What Would You Do?, 20/20, Undercover Boss, CSI: NY, Blue Bloods, Supernatural, Fringe, Kitchen Nightmares, Grimm, and Dateline all have had lenghtly and/or successful Friday runs in recent memory. It’s all a matter of what shows are suited for Friday.

  • omabin

    Personally, I think ABC should sort of swap its Sunday and Monday lineups. Sundays are well suited days for reality competitions but not for dramas, as the erratic competition breaks the flow and then prevents viewers from keeping back again in the future, which is not a problem for reality. It would also help ABC to just move DWTS away from the Voice. The results show can stay on Monday. This is especially true for Revenge which is a very serialized show. I don’t think any of this will happen since ABC will not move the show again after the promotion it put into moving the show this year, but I think it would solve two of their problems at the same time. I am not sure the best alternative would be to leave OUAT on Sundays and have DWTS 9-11 pm and the results show on Mondays before Revenge, followed by Castle, or have DWTS 8-10 followed by Castle and then OUT-Revenge-Results Show on Modnday, I sort of prefer the former I think. Again, I don’t think they will go with this but I think it would help. Tuesdays would then be free of the damn results show and ABC could make it a male night anchored by Shield. Bop could be sent either to fridays at 10 or to the death slot of thursdays at 8.

  • omabin

    This means I would go with:

    Sunday:
    Once Upon a Time
    DWTS
    DWTS

    Monday
    DWTS Results
    Revenge
    Castle

    Tuesday
    Shield
    New Male Skewing Drama
    Shark Tank

    Wednesday
    The Middle
    Suburgatory
    Modern Family
    New Comedy
    Nashville

    Thursday
    Body of Proof
    Grey’s Anatomy
    Scandal

    Friday
    Last Man Standing
    Malibu Country
    How to Live With Your Parents
    The Neighbours
    20/20

  • Nick

    @omabin

    I’m not sure only 1 new comedy is such a good idea. I’d swap out one of the Friday comedies, probably The Neighbors because it’s not a mulitcam.
    Also, no new female-skewing dramas?

  • omabin

    @Nick,

    Both valid points. But How to Live with Your Parents is also a single-cam (it was originally developed as multi-cam, but it was changed), so the second friday hour with be single cam anyway. I am not sure that premiering another show on friday (requiring a higher marketing effort, etc) would be such a good idea. Better to concentrate on promoting the big moves and the new male night.

    However, you do have a point on me missing out a female skewing drama. But unless they bump Bop to midseason and premiere yet another DOA drama thursday at 8, I dunno where that could go. They could ax nashville i suppose, but i am not sure the result would be way better since again, that would require further promotion. The only way I see it is for them to cut the second comedy hour on friday and have shark tank remaining there. Castle could go tuesdays then and a new drama could premiere out of revenge on mondays (although that timeslot is potentially fatal, with revolution or whatever else is fueled by the voice).

    Sunday:
    Once Upon a Time
    DWTS
    DWTS

    Monday
    DWTS Results
    Revenge
    New Female Skewing Drama

    Tuesday
    Shield
    New Male Skewing Drama
    Castle

    Wednesday
    The Middle
    Suburgatory
    Modern Family
    New Comedy
    Nashville

    Thursday
    Body of Proof
    Grey’s Anatomy
    Scandal

    Friday
    Last Man Standing
    Malibu Country
    Shark Tank
    20/20

  • Just Desserts

    If The Neighbors manages to hold its audience without The Middle and Modern Family, it’s a definite renewal. :)

  • Justin121

    There definitely seems to be a Modern Family-curse:

    Every single show that aired behind Mod Fam, once moved, got cancelled.

    Suburgatory might be the only show that survives that fate — or not.

    Even if it does, it gets cancelled out by Mr. Sunshine which got cancelled even before being moved.

    Either a curse, or just a failed strategy. ABC hasn’t figured out how to utilize that massive lead-in — No post-2008 shows can even approach the numbers Modern Family has been getting*.

    * Ready for @Ultima to jump at me with a list of shows that includes Mike & Molly, 2 Broke Girls, in 3, 2, 1…

    But I have a respone ready and available.. hehe :D

  • Nick

    @Justin121

    No post-2008 shows can even approach the numbers Modern Family has been getting*.

    I’m not Ultima here to spell your doom, but I think you should know that Modern Family premiered in Fall 2009.

  • Ultima

    @omabin
    Sunday:
    Once Upon a Time
    DWTS
    DWTS

    Monday
    DWTS Results
    Revenge
    Castle

    Now that’s just ridiculous. You know the only acceptable alternative scheduling for DWTS around here is…

    Saturday
    8- DWTS
    10- DWTS results

    ;)

    It actually seems like a reasonable idea. There’s significantly more drama competition on Sunday than on Monday.

    Sunday nights are mostly clear for ABC to schedule DWTS every week during its two cycles as well. The only conflicts I noticed would be the April HHOF movie (just move it to March) and the American Music Awards/Billboard Music Awards.

    For the awards shows, they’re typically the Sunday before DWTS ends, so the performance finales could be in the normal 1-hour Monday timeslot and the season finales could use the current 3-hour Tuesday format.

    Now – where do you suggest they schedule The Bachelor? I would think just leave it in its current timeslot (they can condense it a week by putting the Women Tell All special on Sunday before DWTS returns). Then you have one of the Monday dramas (i.e. Revenge) going on hiatus from December to March and probably airing with virtually no repeats.

    That just leaves the mess that will be Sunday 9-11pm for the three months in between DWTS cycles – 3 HHOF movies, Decemeber specials, The Oscars, punting against the big NFL events, The Bachelor against the Grammys and the special in March and maybe a two-hour drama premiere on the free Sunday in February?

    I also like the idea of a two-hour Friday comedy block. It looks like ABC is being intelligent and ending the comedies in March (hence 18 episodes instead of 22). Historically, TGIF took an above average hit from DST/spring. Run comedies through March, then transition into a newsmagazine heavy lineup through the summer.

  • Ultima

    There’s even just enough time to squeeze in a 10 week DWTS cycle between the Primetime Emmys (22 September) and AMAs (24 November).

    Two-hour season premiere (with no results show, like the spring cycle) on the first Monday of the season; then eight Sunday/Monday performance results shows, then the AMAs, then the Monday/Tuesday finale.

    With the premire week preemption of Revenge, that leaves you with 9 weeks of DWTS/Revenge in the fall, 10 weeks of DWTS/Revenge in the spring, plus two episodes in December and a two-hour finale (or a third episode in December). No repeats, no breaks in airings except the hiatus.

    So much elegance, so little chance of happening…

  • Ultima

    @Justin
    There definitely seems to be a Modern Family-curse

    Nonsense. There’s no supernatural force at work that is keeping shows airing after Modern Family from succeeding.

    There’s actually a simple explanation – most new shows fail. Even amongst those that succeed, very few are hits.

    Look at history. During the mid-1990s, NBC had arguably the best sitcom launch vehicle in history with their Friends/Sienfeld/ER anchored Thursday nights. The result, a bunch of top ten shows that fell flat on their face when moved to another night.

    Big lead-ins don’t make hits. Big lead-ins only ensure that potential hits get exposed to larger audiences (and sometimes drag mediocre shows into profitablility).

    If you’re really good at finding or developing hit shows, then hits launching hits is extremely effective; see ABC during the late 80s/early 90s for an example of this, see ABC now for an example of what usually happens.

  • Justin121

    @Nick

    What I meant is that most high-rated shows (NCIS, Grey’s, etc.) premiered pre-2008 and kept their audiences. Very few shows that premiered in the last four years have obtained large audiences as to reach 3.0 and 4.0 ratings and higher.

    Btw, how do you do quotes?

    @Ultima
    Keeping Cougar Town for two years (interrupted by Mr. Sunshine nonetheless), slotting the incompatable, narrowly-targeted Happy Endings, an April premiere date for The B in 23, picking up The Neighbors and switch-a-roo with a late premiere date for second-year Suburgatory have ALL been the wrong moves.

    The curse thingy is just harmless fun :D

  • Bob

    Agree with the observation of Last Man Standing. Watch the first episode and nearly threw-up. It was horrible with the new actress and the stupid political overtone. Guess what, gave it a second chance on the second episode and loved it. My wife and I have been watching it ever since.

  • Nick

    @Justin121

    Very few shows that premiered in the last four years have obtained large audiences as to reach 3.0 and 4.0 ratings and higher.

    Yeah, that’s a pretty good guess. I think the only other shows to premiere over 3.0 and maintain that were 2 Broke Girls, Once Upon a Time and The Voice. Even Mike & Molly (which you mentioned) wouldn’t make the cut.

    Btw, how do you do quotes?

    It’s the same as making something italic or bold, except the words “blockquote” instead of “b” or “i”.

  • omabin

    @Ultima,

    You even went to the details way more than I did. I agree with The Bachelor suggestion. It does good enough on mondays where it is and it would avoid the filler to replace the results show that always bombs anyway. I really think this move would help ABC as it would solve two of their problems at once, which is the decline of dwts (which I imagine has accelerated ever since facing the voice even though I did not actually check this) and the scheduling issues of the serialized sunday dramas.

    However, as elegant as it is, I also agree with you that there is very little chance of this happening. Particularly, I don’t see ABC moving revenge around again after all the promotion the move got from last year… If anything, it may be moved to 10pm on sundays but i doubt it leaves sundays. It is a shame though because I think this schedule would have potential.

  • josh

    I hope last man standing and Malibu country get canceled, ive tried watching these but they are just so boring and unfunny.

  • Sel

    How many episodes did ABC ordered this year for Suburgatory ?

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