ABC: 'Last Man Standing,' 'Malibu Country' Still "Toss Ups" To Be Canceled Or Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 29th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 27, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Happy Endings :cry: :cry: 0.57
Private Practice canceled 0.63
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.63
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.70
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.97
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.98
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Nashville :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.18
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.35
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.38
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.53
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.20

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Guessing at the ratings threshold for the renewal of Friday sitcoms Last Man Standing and Malibu Country is tricky because there is relatively little past data for scripted show renewals on Fridays, which clearly can come with lower ratings averages than for shows on other nights. I usually assume ~30% "handicap" for Friday ratings, and on that basis Last Man Standing's 2013 average is looking reasonably good, and Malibu Country is somewhat shakier. The reason I still have both of them at "toss up" is because they've both somewhat inconsistent.  I'm hoping as we go forward in the spring, it becomes a bit more obvious, either positive or negative.

Did last week's 1.9 rating for Nashville make my move to "certain renewal" a week ago a bit shaky? Perhaps. Another below average week and the show will likely be back down to "likely renewal".

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Rick

    ABC needs a major overhaul to get out of 4th place

    Sunday:

    All UNSCRPITED

    AFHV, SHARK TANK, DWTS/BACHELOR, THE TASTE and/or new reality programs. Yes I realize 5 different shows on 4 hour Sunday doesn’t make sense, so when DWTS is off the Bachelor takes over. Much too competitive for Dramas. Not just from cable but also the numerous award shows.

    Monday:

    OUAT
    REVENGE
    NASHVILLE

    Tuesday:

    MODERN FAMILY SPIN OFF (obviously must promote it heavy after MF on Wednesday first).
    New sitcom
    SUBURGATORY
    New sitcom
    CASTLE/BODY OF PROOF

    Wednesday:

    THE MIDDLE
    New sitcom
    MODERN FAMILY
    New sitcom
    New Drama

    GREY’S
    SCANDAL
    New drama

    Friday

    ALL UNSRIPTED

    SHARK TANK, PRIMETIME WHAT WILL YOU DO? 20/20.

    If ZERO HOUR and/or RED WINDOW proves to win over viewers, they can be inserted in the the new drama slots.

  • Rick

    Leave Neighbors for midseason if a new sitcom fails. I would love to say the same for Happy Ending (one of the funnier sitocms on TV) but it probably wont happen.

  • Justin121

    @Nick

    It’s the same as making something italic or bold, except the words “blockquote” instead of “b” or “i”.

    Thanks :D

  • Joe

    Last Man Standing & Malibu Country are great!! Hope they get renewed!

  • sofaspud

    @ Josh

    No, it’s not just you. I too think the last three episodes of HE (I’m including Max’s new roommate) as back to basics funny. Most of this season has been fair to middling, which sucks because this was the season I FINALLY got some friends to start watching.

  • Susan

    Please don’t cancel Malibu Country or Last man standing. Two great comedies. Both have my vote to stay,
    .

  • renee

    i think you should renew last man standing and malibu country. they are both great. why dont you try them on a different night. like tuesday. Friday is a horrible night for tv.

  • Cathy

    Last Man Standing is one of the best ever sitcoms. What is going on? Why would it be cancelled? I had a feeling when they moved the show to Friday. Really upset here!!!!! But I guess I should realze any show that has an obvious conservative character written into the show and that character being a member of the family would of course be taken off. What the hell is going on in this world. Hats off to Tim Allen and the rest of the family cast. They are all so awesome and so perfect for their parts. Praying some other network sees the great talent of the actors and how great this program is!

  • jessica

    Tim allens last man standing is too funny for u to cancel.. I never laugh out loud but this show makes me laugh no matter what.. I’m a Democrat n I still think his Republican ways are too funny.. tho I love reba too n the new show.. I record both.. but Last man standing id deff funnier n better. Remember you are showing them on a Friday night.. put the next season on a Tuesday night and I’m sure more people would watch it..
    BY the way I do Not watch any of the other new shows you have out.. just Last man standing and maiilbu country!!! Renew it would be great for me!

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