CBS: No Ratings For Old Men, 'Vegas' Still Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 29th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 27, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.52
CSI:NY (F) :cry: :cry: 0.53
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.56
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.61
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.72
Partners* canceled 0.79
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.86
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.88
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.96
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.06
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.18
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.30
How I Met Your Mother :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 1/30) 1.34
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.37
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.53
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.20

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If you're thinking, "Gee, there must not be much to write about for CBS" you'd be right. Vegas continues as "likely to be canceled". I'd love for there to be as many crazy Fan Excuse Bingo players for it as there were for Harry's Law last season, but that doesn't look likely. Unlike Harry's Law, which had a lot of irrlevant total viewers compared to the rest of the NBC dramas which gave hope to the misguided, the total viewership of Vegas is nothing special compared to other CBS dramas.

The only other thing to talk about "Which of CSI:NY, The Good Wife or The Mentalist gets canceled?" will be back next week. I bet you just can't wait!

Note to the nitpicky commenters, although its just about as certain as it gets, while the cast and crew have signed on for another season, How I Met Your Mother has not yet been officially renewed. 1/30 update. Now officially renewed.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • PurpleDrasi

    @Del – Network shows don’t compete with other network shows. (well, they do but for PR purposes only.) You can’t compare Terra Nova’s situation with Vegas’s situation. Vegas is compared to other shows on CBS and sadly,it is near the bottom ratings wise.

    @Scott – NCIS drop is insignificant. Their ratings are so high they can afford to drop some and still kick butt in the ratings. As for Vegas, 19% of a small number is still a fairly small number.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Here some CSI NY info to factor in: CBS approached all the actors last week and offered one year contract extensions. In addition, none of the sets will be struck after wrap next week and the production and writers offices will remain open throughout the hiatus. Does that sound like certain cancellation? IMO it’s still a toss up and mister Moonves will not decide until he sees all the pilots come in. I would guess CSI NY gets a short 13 epaidoe order and airs midseason.”

    Any cast contract extensions are contingent on the show being picked up.

    It wouldn’t surprise me if CBS is still in a deciding mode over CSINY, The Mentalist and The Good Wife. My call to have CSINY as “likely canceled” vs. the other two is probably my shakiest current prediction. Given that I was going to make a pick between the three by the end of the season, I just figured making it earlier was better than making it later, since I am unlikely to get any more information.

    One of those three is done, but my ability to pick which one is admittedly weak.

    Edit: Although your point about pilots mattering to CSINY’s future is nonsense. CBS is going to premiere 3 new dramas in the fall, and probably one in the spring. The only thing the pilot decisions leave open is which ones.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Bill, please explain to me why total viewership doesn’t count, only the 18-49 numbers.”

    Because TV ads are priced based on age/gender demo ratings. Primarily adults 18-49 in broadcast primetime. Viewers outside those demos make the networks no money.

    Rage against the inequity of the process all you wish, but it is what it is (and has been for more than 30 years).

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “you seem very confident (“irrelevant to the grim future of the show” & “third of tv fan five Stages Of Grief”) that vegas will be cancelled. Out of curiosity, do you meet with the executives at CBS or are your predictions purely (and notably successfully) based on your statistical models ?”

    Just five years of experience making the same kinds of predictions, with very good results. It’s not rocket science, it’s a very simple process, which I explain in the boilerplate in every post!

    We’re experienced enough to realize which predictions are shaky and which aren’t. As noted in a comment above, calling CSINY to be canceled vs. Good Wife or The Mentalist is relatively shaky. Calling Vegas to be canceled is not.

    Nobody at the networks would reveal any useful information to anyone even if they did meet with them.

    “I confidently look forward to watching Vegas next year on CBS ( is this stage 4 ? )”

    Nah, that’s still stage 1.

  • American

    HIMYM renewed!!!

  • gerry

    @ tvlover

    is that verified? i’d be curious to see a link on that.

  • Mon

    @tvlover

    IS that true? That would explain why CBS didn’t extend CSI: NY episode order this season to 20 to reach 200 episodes. CBS might be planing to pick it up anyway so it will reach beyond 200 episodes.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “That would explain why CBS didn’t extend CSI: NY episode order this season to 20 to reach 200 episodes. CBS might be planing to pick it up anyway so it will reach beyond 200 episodes.”

    What do you imagine is special about 200 episodes (vs. any nearby number)? Other than a cake and a party?

  • Mon

    @Bill

    It’s a milestone, a big achievement on TV!

  • Leverage-Fan

    Regarding “The Mentalist”: All I want is to be in the fifth of the TV Fan Five Stages Of Grief! ;)

  • EllieMae

    The Good Wife – out please! – CSI NY has been really good this season for me – and sure wish Jane would get that Red John!!

  • JOE

    I can’t believe people still think that Vegas will be saved….its dead period.

    The Good Wife will also stay, The Mentalist will stay for 1 more season…NY though I feel is out.

    If Golden Boy does well than it will stay of course but I doubt it will do well.

    My schedule is below:

    Monday
    HIMYM (Final Season)
    Super Clyde (New)
    2 Broke Girls
    Mike & Molly
    H5O

    Tuesday
    NCIS
    NCIS: LA
    Elementary (New Time)

    Wednesday
    Survivor
    Criminal Minds
    CSI

    Thursday
    The Big Bang Theory
    Mom (New)
    2.5 Men (New Time)
    Ex Men (New)
    Persons of Interest (New Time)

    Friday
    The Advocates (New)
    CSI:NY or Golden Boy (whichever does better)
    Blue Bloods

    Sunday
    60 Minutes
    The Amazing Race
    The Good Wife (Final Season – 12 Episodes)
    The Mentalist

    Mid-Season
    Undercover Boss
    Rules of Engagement
    Friends with Better lives
    Beverly Hills Cop
    Hostages
    NCIS:LA spin-off

    ***NCIS:LA moves to Sundays 9pm in February to make room for its spin-off
    ***Undercover Boss/Rules of Engagement to replace any failed new sitcom
    ***Beverly Hills Cop to Fridays at mid-season at 9pm

  • TVlover

    I can’t confirm it with a link — all I can say is I know it to be true because of where I’m employed. Bill is absolutely right about the 200 episode discussion. CBS does not care about making any magic number other than hitting a syndication quota, after that the only thing that matters is bottom line. Where is the biggest profit margin! I will disagree with you Bill about one point. The pilot situation does factor in to the Friday night decision. Internally CBS has no faith in Golden Boy doing any respectable numbers. Unless a miracle happens, they will burn it off. That leaves a tremendous Friday night problem. Nothing has performed as well or pairs so perfectly with BB as CSI NY. So they either put another aging show at 9 and hope it doesn’t effect BB numbers or choose a new show and try to launch it at the death hour. If after seeing the pilots, Moines doesn’t have a viable candidate for that option. CSI NY’s chance improve considerably. Just my two cents.

  • PurpleDrasi

    @TVlover – Fair point but I think it all really comes down to how much they can make in syndication vs. how much to produce another year of an older, expensive show. If syndication doesn’t cover it they will cancel. True, they will have to take their chances with another show that may not pair as well with BB but I think most TV execs would rather take a chance than have a guaranteed money loss.

  • Mon

    Thanks TVlover for that glimmer of hope!

  • spycomics

    Gee, maybe the show the CBS would need to pair up well with Blue Bloods could be….VEGAS! Blue Bloods at 9:00, Vegas at 10:00. I’d rather it be sent to Friday than be cancelled.

  • Nick

    What CBS should do for 2013-2014:

    Mon-
    8: How I Met Your Mother (full final season)
    8:30: Mike & Molly
    9: 2 Broke Girls
    9:30: Two and a Half Men
    10: Elementary

    Tue-
    8: NCIS
    9: NCIS: Red (new)
    10: NCIS: Los Angeles

    Wed-
    8: CSI
    9: Criminal Minds
    10: Darkness Falls (new)

    Thu-
    8: The Big Bang Theory
    8:30: Mom (new)
    9: Person of Interest
    10: Intelligence (new)

    Fri-
    8: Undercover Boss
    9: Hawaii 5-0
    10: Blue Bloods

    Sat-
    8: CSI (R)
    9: The Mentalist (R)
    10: 48 Hours Mystery

    Sun-
    7: 60 Minutes
    8: Survivor
    9: The Amazing Race
    10: The Mentalist

    Midseason – CSI: NY, The Good Wife

  • TVlover

    I love CSI NY too but sad reality is, that at this point renewal truly is a 50/50 crapshoot at best. Only thing that is certain is that the decision will not be made until days before upfronts.

  • Mon

    @spycomics
    Vegas would do worse on Fridays than it is doing now on Tuesdays. So, what’s the point of putting Vegas there?

  • CBSviewer

    Next Season Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods will be in a “Toss-Up” for Renewal, no ? I mean there will be 4 or 5 dramas in danger: CSI: NY (or The Good Wife), The Mentalist, Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods.
    With the Final Season of HIMYM and the new flops CBS will have to cancel lot of Shows next year.

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