CW: '90210' Ratings Are Terrible, How Can It Be A "Toss Up" For Cancellation Or Renewal?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 29th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 27, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Emily Owens, M.D. canceled 0.51
90210 :| :| :| 0.58
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.65
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.80
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.87
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 1.02
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.31
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.60
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.96

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Fans of 90210 better hope that the CW's Mark Pedowitz is still handing out short final seasons for old shows, because that's the only way 90210 survives into next season. Its ratings are dreadful, even for the CW. Since reading Mr. Pedowitz's mind is the only way to know for sure, I'm keeping it as a "toss up".

Desperate fans may cite Pedowitz's public statements as cause for hoping for one thing, or another, but after doing this for more than five years, I'm 100% certain that trying to assign probabilities based on TV executive public statements is folly.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Laina

    I’m going to predict that TCD and Cult get the ax and 90210 gets renewed for a short final season. Beauty and the Beast is a toss up.

    In the case of Cult being a hit, then I think 90210 is gone at the end of this season.

  • Charmed

    Given the network’s history, these are my guesses

    RENEWED:
    The Vampire Diaries
    Supernatural
    Arrow
    Nikita (21 episode final season)
    90210 (10-13 episode final season)
    Hart Of Dixie

    CANCELED:
    Beauty and The Beast
    Cult
    The Carrie Diaries

  • DougF

    There are reports that are saying the producers of 90210 are expecting a decision of cancellation or renewal relatively soon. As they would like to write that final episodes of this season as final episodes if they are going to be cancelled.

    So if that is true and there is no report of cancellation it looks like it will be back for a final season.

  • JJA

    The best way to help 90210′s ratings is to simply announce that it is ending. This may give it an extra .1 or .2 bounce from final season buzz.

    Regarding Nikita, one thing that will help its ratings stay steady is that there will be a new episode every week until the season finale (save for maybe 1 week off). So NO MORE hiatuses or months with re-runs; each week there will be a new episode to keep the audience engaged. I think .4s and .5s (and maybe an occasional .6) is what Nikita will get from this point forward.

  • Ginger

    I can see the CW using 90210 as filler between ANTM.

  • Jason

    Problem with 90210 is, I don’t care about a single character on the show. It was ill-conceived and horrrrrribly casted from the get-go.

    CW needs to reinvigorate the network by cleansing itself of 90210, Hart of Dixie and, in all liklihood, Carrie.

  • Kavyn

    Just a quick question (Richard might know the answer) but is Nikita now running the rest of their episodes without a break? Just curious because they split the first 6-7 episodes of Nikita up last 3 months, which is somewhat odd unless if they wanted to work on some upward momentum for Nikita in the Spring.

  • Melanie

    Right now, I think that its obvious that TVD, Arrow and Supernatural will be renewed – top three ratings on the network. I think it is highly likely that Nikita will be renewed — for syndication and because its on Friday and the CW has other things to worry about.

    Pedowitz did make those comments about ‘final’ seasons and closure, so he must be considering it for 90210, but a 10 episode final season can be scheduled anywhere without necessarily impacting the ‘regular’ schedule. Poor Cult hasn’t even premiered yet so lets leave it out of the discussion for the moment.

    Beyond that, I think the CW would happily dump the entire rest of the schedule if they could afford to do so. The network needs shows that can get over a 1.0. If they feel they have 5 or 6 hot new pilots and can afford to launch that many (a very big ‘if’)I don’t think they’d have a qualm about cancelling HOD, BATB, Carrie AND 90210 in addition to Emily Owens.

  • Dave

    @Kavyn

    The CW is pre-empting a new Nikita that was scheduled for Feb15th for a Valentines day special movie called Paper hearts I think. But I think after that, breaks for Nikita will be very minimal compared to the rest of the lineup.

  • JJA

    @Kavyn–Nikita has just aired 8 episodes so far this season. This Friday’s episode will be episode 9, which means there are 13 episodes left. If they show one new episode every Friday, they’ll get to episode 22 by May 3.

    So yes, it’s a new episode every week ’till the end (save for maybe 1 or 2 weeks off).

  • Dave

    @JJA

    I’m concerned that there’s a slight possibility that Nikita’s finale could stretch to June.

    As of now, the cast is only filming episode 16 and Nikita’s production for an episode usually takes a while. Do you think they’ll finish producing the episodes in time for May?

  • Dave

    One solution to not end up in June if possible is to have a full night event for the Season finale but km not sure the network will allow that.

  • JJA

    @Dave–They could always pull some episodes for the summer, but it won’t be because they won’t be ready in time. The finale will be ready by May.

    Most TV shows film about 7 episodes ahead.

    In the case of Supernatural, they complete episodes about 6 weeks before they are aired. And Supernatural is a show that requires some special effects to be added.

  • gerry

    cw is reairing TCD whenever there is a spot to air it, so i don’t see it getting cancelled. i think it should maybe move and pair with HOD. they should also run it on its new night from beginning to end through the summer and build up some viewership.

    and that being said, there should be space on the lineup because 90210 should cancel. if cw knows already that it plans on trying to give TCD life, cancel 90210 now so the writers have time to give the proper ending satisfy fans as well as for the sake of potential dvd sales.

  • gerry

    One Tree Hill went on for years after they graduated. Years. It was awful, but it still ran 4 or 5 years beyond graduation.

  • Angellica .T.

    pleace bring back the secret circle

  • JJA

    I predict “The Carrie Diaries” WILL be renewed. They’ll give it a preliminary order of 13 episodes to see if a full season is worth it. Think LUX!

    90210 is now the lowest rated show on the network, AND it’s in its 5th year. It’s doing worse than GG did one year ago. I predict it will be canceled (or, better stated, they’ll decide to end it). Keep your ears open for an announcement soon.

    I think “Beauty & The Beast” is still the most likely to be canceled. Why? Because it dropped 50% since its pilot episode, AND its ratings are not materially better than CD and HOD (only .2 points higher, due mostly to the VD lead-in). It is also probably more expensive to produce than CD and HOD.

    This can still all change, especially if “Cult” (a wannabe of NBC’s “The Following”) manages to become a “hit.” But since they placed it on Tuesdays after HOD (not with VD, Arrow or SPN), my guess is that it will do badly and NOT be renewed.

    So I predict Cult, B&TB and 90210 will be canceled.

    Renewed: TVD, SPN, Arrow, Nikita, HOD and TCD.

  • JJA

    I meant Fox’s “The Following”

  • Melanie

    @JJA ‘The Cult” as a premise has been around longer than ‘The Following’. TF just got on the air first. Its really not fair to call it a ‘wannabe’.
    I’m not even sure that the premises are that similar –

  • Just

    I think both TCD and BatB will be renewed
    90210 and Cult = canceled
    then BATB will be moved to fridays to pair with Nikita

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