NBC: 'Deception' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

January 29th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 27, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
The New Normal :| :| :| 0.77
1600 Penn :cry: :cry: 0.81
30 Rock final season 0.83
Guys With Kids :cry: :cry: 0.89
Go On :) :) :) :) 0.89
Whitney :| :| :| 0.95
Deception :cry: :cry: 0.97
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.07
Parenthood :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
The Office final season 1.25
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.37
Up All Night :cry: :cry: pending
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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Although its not in the calculations above, Deception hit its second 1.3 adults 18-49 rating last night against repeat broadcast competition. I had moved it to "likely to be canceled" last week, but now it gets in the headline!

With their uneven scheduling, and universally terrible ratings, I'm still not quite sure what to make of the chances for most NBC sitcoms. I'm hoping future week's ratings provide more clarity, but I won't be surprised if its more of the same.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Colin

    I gave Deception 3 episodes but stopped watching bc it’s confusing, bad acting and a bad version of Scandal.

  • Andrew

    Man this sucks once again half the new shows are doing horribly especially deception. Horrible news for New Normal too sighs. Deception is a show that takes time to get into its intriguing for me anyways mom and I really enjoy it.

    Guys with kids is hilarious I really wish it deception and new normal could stand a fighting chance but sadly it looks like they are all gonna get the ax. :(

  • Dan

    @Dahne – Call it the “Flashforward” or “The Event” rule but, Revolution’s fall numbers are meaningless. Its how the show performs when it returns in March. However Revolution’s advantage is that it will always air behind highly rated The Voice. So NBC will likely renew it.

    @Andrew – Actually thanks to The Voice, a lot of NBC’s shows are doing pretty well. Go On and New Normal’s numbers now don’t matter, once they follow The Voice, both shows will do better and will be renewed. New dramas Revolution and Chicago Fire (No voice lead in) will likely return. Even though Deception is flopping, its just a short bridge until Revolution and The Voice return.

  • Michael

    “Go On” has a horrible retention rate. “Guys with Kids” has an awesome retention rate. In a close race, this should weigh heavily into consideration.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Deception is definitely dead as a doornail.

    Too bad Revolution may not follow it to the grave. But I still think Revolution’s ratings will start to crash during the rest of its season, if not fully crash before a renewal decision is made.

  • Dan

    @Richard Steven Hack – As long as Revolution has The Voice as a lead in, it will do fine and be renewed. I do believe Revolution’s numbers will go down but if it stays in the 2.0s it will get another season.

    @Michael – Thats a good theory but NBC will keep Go On only because its the first single camera comedy in years to break a 3.0, even airing after The Voice. NBC will likely use it to rebuild Thursdays. As for Guys With Kids, anything can build off Animal Practice and even Whitney slightly but overall the ratings are only OK. Its not doing horrible enough to be in extreme danger of cancellation but its not doing great to warrant another season. This one will be on the bubble now until May. NBC will explore their options and keep it in consideration. It’s fate is similar to ABC’s multi camera comedies, Malibu Country and Last Man Standing.

    NBC’s Whitney, Guys With Kids and Up All Night could all very well be dumped but my guess is one will be kept for next season. My opinion is that Whitney has the best chance. GWK only has a few more weeks to tick up or its one and done. Up All Night needs to spike up in its reboot or its likely done as well. Whitney has some time to do better but if I were to bet, then NBC would keep Whitney.

    ABC’s Last Man Standing and Malibu Country are only doing OK for Fridays. I wouldnt be surprised if both were axed or if both were renewed however I don’t think 1 would be cancelled and one renewed. I think it seems more like package deal.

  • Blake

    I just got into Deception and it’s pretty entertaining. I hope NBC gives it another chance in a new timeslot next year.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Dan: “As long as Revolution has The Voice as a lead in, it will do fine and be renewed. I do believe Revolution’s numbers will go down but if it stays in the 2.0s it will get another season.”

    You may be right – unfortunately. :-) At least The Voice lead-in kind of explains why it hasn’t crashed yet.

  • Ted Craig

    NBC is looking at a lot of comedies this spring, plus Michael J. Fox and Cee Lo. I’m betting everything but P&R, TNN and Go On gets the ax.

  • Michael

    @Dan,

    “Guys With Kids” has also built on its lead in from “Go On” although the only available sample data came when both shows were airing repeats. Are you placing repeats of “Go On” in the same camp with new episodes of “Animal Practice” and “Whitney?”

    Why is it relevant that “Go On” is a single camera comedy? Are they cheaper to produce?

  • Dan

    I’m not really liking Deception but I love Megan Good so that’s enough for me to tune in every week. If they tell me she will get another show soon then I say cancel Deception, but if it’s back to guest spots and crappy movies then I say renew it. I need my Megan Good fix

  • Andrew

    @Dan: I sure hope so I guess deceptions cancellation is sadly inevitable. :(

  • seasic

    Likely? more like Definitely.

  • Honey Badger

    Last night on NBC all new shows: Betty White’s Off Their Rockers 1.5 18 – 49 rating, Go On 1.2 rating , The New Normal 1.1 rating, Dateline NBC 1.3 rating

    As I said before: My has NBC fallen, only a few of their shows would not be cancelled if they were at CBS.

    Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear.
    At his point the Cancellation Bear could get rid of all the shows on NBC (except “ The Voice “ and Sunday Night NFL Football and a couple of other shows), and replace them and get better ratings with old repeats of the Old NBC Must See TV shows: The Cosby Show, Family Ties, Cheers, Night Court, A Different World, Seinfeld, Mad About You, Wings, Frasier, Friends, and Will & Grace , Hill Street Blues, L.A. Law, and ER.

    NBC is in BIG Trouble.
    What would you do to fix NBC?

  • BDCNY

    I hope “Deception” doesn’t get cancelled though of course the numbers aren’t promising. I still don’t get the “Scandal” comparison. The shows are completely different and the main characters are different. One is a “fixer” the other is an undercover law enforcement person. It’s like comparing a show about doctors with one about lawyers because both leads are white guys with blond hair. Oh wait that wouldn’t happen. When people post them together as if they are in direct competition with each other or that one’s success hurts the other it makes me wonder about their intelligence.

  • Oliver

    I think the real question now is whether NBC should give Community Season 5 a 13-episode or 22-episode order.

  • Zachary

    @rob60990

    The Cee Lo show wasn’t even ordered to a pilot. It was just a script. And it wasn’t even on the list of scripts that NBC likes. I highly doubt it’s going forward.

  • Winning C.

    I’m actually willing to give Deception a shot at a second season, it all depends on if NBC thinks it has any potential to grow. Deception reminds me a lot of Scandal in the sense that it could be a late bloomer. I don’t think it was Deception’s fault that they premiered it without The Voice as its lead-in.

    For the single-cam comedies this is starting to get very easy, Go On, TNN, and 1600 Penn are goners. P&R obviously a keeper and I think with those three comedies bombing that Community might even get a 13-episode season but that will be its last. Michael J. Fox is coming in but just like Go On if the comedy is really niche it doesn’t matter who you have in the lead role.

    Multi-cams are looking very safe right now, Whitney obviously getting a 3rd and 4th seasons. Guys with Kids will comeback but the decision is still out there on the new Up All Night if they put it with Guys with Kids. I’m still not sure if NBC is doing a multi-cam block next season but they should. They need a multi-cam that’s gonna instantly hit for them since the current ones are in transition of growing slowly.

    Another interesting area with the dramas is with SVU and Chicago and do they keep them together or split them up? Do they move Grimm off of Fridays too?

  • Oliver

    I think Community may gain viewers in syndication. I think it has two more seasons left in it and, if Bored to Death and Entourage are successes, perhaps a film of some description.

  • gerry

    @rare

    TNN has received critical acclaim. while you may not like the show and the acclaim really has nothing to do with its renewal, it has received said acclaim.

    that being said, i agree with what someone else above said. nbc wants GOON and TNN to succeed. if they’re given the voice lead-in again, the ratings will boost and they will pick up a renewal. which will make next year’s renewal/cancel for both very interesting, as nbc SHOULD use the voice to prop up other freshman shows next season, meaning they will have to stand fully on their own.

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