Bubble Watch: Super Chicken When It Comes To Low-Rated NBC Sitcoms + 'The Following' Upgraded

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

February 3rd, 2013

Even though it's only aired two-episodes, I've upgraded The Following to likely renewal. It's current ratings say certain renewal, but, again, it has only aired two episodes and is not out of the woods yet. Last week I reminded readers that Alcatraz opened well only to wind up canceled. Unlike Alcatraz, The Following improved in its second airing  from a 3.2 adults 18-49 rating to a 3.3.

Alcatraz dropped three tenths in its second week, but to a still healthy 3.0 adults 18-49 rating. Similar to Alcatraz's second episode, the second episode of the The Following aired against repeats on CBS.  CBS is all new this Monday and has the Super Bowl the night before to pimp its lineup...

For now other than Up All Night which has been on the bench a while, and 1600 Penn , and since it's "Super" Bowl Sunday, I'm going the route of that great super hero of my youth, Super Chicken, and have moved all the other recently very low-rated NBC sitcoms to the bubble.

I've seen many choruses of "I knew NBC would miss Sunday Night Football and The Voice!" (uhm, duh!) while Chicago Fire fans fire back "Yeah, yeah, maybe people don't like those shows, our show isn't missing The Voice or the NFL!"

While I still give Go On and Whitney an edge over Guys With Kids and The New Normal, at this point it's be ridiculous to list Guys With Kids as a likely cancellation and Go On as a likely renewal. It wouldn't be ridiculous to leave Guys With Kids as a likely cancellation and just move Go On on the bubble, but  with their recent ratings convergence I'm going the "cluck, cluck, cluck Super Chicken!" route.

Either way, NBC has to be especially disappointed in the ratings erosion for Go On.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Certain Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Likely Cancellation
Deception NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Cleveland Show, The Fox On The Bubble
Mindy Project, The Fox On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Guys With Kids NBC On The Bubble
New Normal, The NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Following, The Fox Likely Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Nashville ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Scandal ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Final SeasonFinished
Gossip Girl CW Final SeasonFinished
Fringe Fox Final SeasonFinished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

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  • Honey Badger

    @ Holly, I think Chicago Fire 2.0 to 2.2 ratings, Parenthood 1.8 rating January 23, 2013, would both be cancelled on CBS, Grimm also would be cancelled. Speaking of Grim what is NBC doing with that show, a very long hiatus that seldom turns out well.
    Revolution would be kept at CBS at this point.

    Holly
    Posted February 3, 2013 at 9:58 AM
    @Honey Badger,
    Almost all NBC shows would be canceled if they were on CBS
    Again, that’s not true. Revolution, Chicago Fire, Parenthood, and possibly Grimm could all be renewed on CBS. Aside from Revolution they’d all be bubble shows, but not sure cancellations.
    NBC comedies on the other hand…

  • John A

    You may as well have Nikita at Likely Renewel or even Certain.

  • John A

    Grimm wouldnt be cancelled even on CBS on a friday.

  • rob60990

    The Middle finally upgraded to certain renewal. :D

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @ Holly, I think Chicago Fire 2.0 to 2.2 ratings, Parenthood 1.8 rating January 23, 2013, would both be cancelled on CBS, Grimm also would be cancelled. Speaking of Grim what is NBC doing with that show, a very long hiatus that seldom turns out well.
    Revolution would be kept at CBS at this point.

    One huge problem with silly specious arguments like these is they usually neglect to consider the high probability that all of those shows would perform better if they were on CBS.

  • Shepherd

    @Robert
    You said “For now other than Up All Night which has been on the bench a while, and 1600 Penn , and since it’s “Super” Bowl Sunday, I’m going the route of that great super hero of my youth, Super Chicken, and have moved all the other recently very low-rated NBC sitcoms to the bubble.”

    But the only show I see moved is Guys With Kids. Did you intend to move Deception to the Bubble as well, or did you forget to exclude this show in the text? I only ask because Deception is doing better than GWK, and it’s also a 10pm show which typically have lower ratings. I also thought you might mention whether the poor premier of Do No Harm would or would not have an effect on its prospects.
    Thanks

  • Shepherd

    “One huge problem with silly specious arguments like these is they usually neglect to consider the high probability that all of those shows would perform better if they were on CBS.”

    LOL :)

  • Petar Ivanov

    NBC should do what works reality and dramas. By the way The biggest loser is now NBC champion and take the voice place. Not bad for so old show.
    NBC should get rid of all these lower rated comedies and put them only on thursday. Tuesday at 9 is best hour for new drama. 10 pm too.
    NBC next season:
    Monday
    8-10 The voice
    10 new drama
    Tuesday
    8 the voice
    9 new drama
    10 Revolution
    Wednesday
    8 Dracula
    9 Crossbones
    10new drama/CF
    thursday
    10 pm Parenthood/L and O
    Friday
    8reality
    9Grimm

    All dramas should be like serialized cable shows – SOA, GOT etc. 10 episode per year like Game of thrones or 10ep fall and 10 ep spring like RVN now.

  • Honey Badger

    Can someone explain to me what NBC is doing with Grimm?
    What is NBC doing with that show, a very long hiatus that seldom turns out well.

  • BigBrotherFan

    My predictions for BUBBLE SHOWS

    Last Man Standing: RENEWED
    Malibu Country: canceled.
    Cleveland Show, The: renewed
    Mindy Project, The: RENEWED
    Good Wife, The: Renewed MOVED TO FRIDAY
    Mentalist, The: RENEWED
    90210: Renewed same as GOSSIP GIRL TYPE
    Carrie Diaries, The: Canceled
    Hart Of Dixie: Renewed
    Nikita: Renewed for full final season
    Beauty And The Beast: Canceled
    Go On: Renewed
    Guys With Kids: Canceled
    New Normal, The: CANCELED
    Whitney: Renewed

    JUST BECAUSE
    NASHVILLE- RENEWED AND NEW TIME SLOT NEXT YEAR (SUNDAY @10PM OR THURSDAY @10PM SCANDAL MOVES TO 9PM)
    1600 PENN- CANCELED
    DECEPTION- COULD BE CANCELED OR MOVED TO THURS@10PM THIS WEEK
    THE FOLLOWING- FOX WILL DO A 24-STYLE HERE RENEWED FOR 15 EPISODES TO AIR IN JAN 2014

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @Shepherd, no, Deception isn’t a comedy (or at least a 30 minute one, I haven’t watched it) and will be canceled. It’s true only Guys with Kids was bumped up, and only Go On bumped down, but there are those who would argue many of the now-bubble NBC sitcoms (perhaps all of them) should be lower than the bubble.

  • Petar Ivanov

    @Robert Seidman

    Alcatraz was 3.3 for both 1 and 2 episodes. Was 2 hour premiere. Wait for The Following until The voice. Alcatraz die when the voice came. I really doubt that The Following can survive against The voice, CBS comedy block and NBA playoffs. If survive than has future, In the end fox will renew it and will send it on friday. Touch is DOA. Its serialized show so will be hard to survive in friday.

  • Austin Lauran

    True or false:

    For the 2013-2014 season, would it be possible for the NBC execs to launch 3 hit dramas similar to how ABC launched Desperate Housewives, Lost, & Grey’s Anatomy during the 2004-2005 season?

  • Dan S

    Me thinks both Goon & TNN will be cancelled. Barring a ratings miracle I just don’t see them coming back. Whitney & GWK will also likely not return in the fall but CF will definitely be back.

  • Petar Ivanov

    @Can someone explain to me what NBC is doing with Grimm?
    What is NBC doing with that show, a very long hiatus that seldom turns out well.

    They have only few episodes left. Grimm start earlier than all other shows.
    I guess they want to wait until The voice and Revolution are back so all network overall rating will improve and more viewers will watch TV promos and advertising.

  • Shepherd

    Ok, thanks, I didn’t know you were only referring to the comedies. I didn’t actually think it would adjust to the bubble; it’s still the second lowest rated drama on the network (which isn’t saying much considering DNH’s premiere ratings), but I still had to ask.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @Petar: Like I said, I don’t think The Following is out of the woods yet. But I’ve changed the text to read “in it’s second *week* for Alcatraz. Thanks.

  • Honey Badger

    @ Petar Ivanov, I agree, at his point the Cancellation Bear should get those shows.
    It is a shame because NBC has a history of really great shows, especially comedies, but that was many years ago.
    Example: the old NBC Must See TV shows: The Cosby Show, Family Ties, Cheers, Night Court, A Different World, Seinfeld, Mad About You, Wings, Frasier, Friends, and Will & Grace , Hill Street Blues, L.A. Law, and ER.

    Petar Ivanov
    Posted February 3, 2013 at 10:22 AM
    NBC should do what works reality and dramas … NBC should get rid of all these lower rated comedies

  • Petar Ivanov

    @Austin Lauran who said:
    True or false:
    For the 2013-2014 season, would it be possible for the NBC execs to launch 3 hit dramas similar to how ABC launched Desperate Housewives, Lost, & Grey’s Anatomy during the 2004-2005 season?

    For last 10 years how many hit dramas NBC launch??? Revolution(because of the voice) and…….

    Yes if NBC can find two dramas after the voice on Monday and tuesday which will be suitable and fit with the voice like Revolution(retention) did this year they can do it for 2 drama hits.(like Revolution BUT not bigger than that) But i DOUBT that. For example so many comedies collapse after TBBT huge lead-in. And TBBT Lead-in is bigger than the voice lead-in so CBS put there old TAHM for better retention. Will be big luck for NBC to hit again with their drama choices TWO times and 3 in a row. But who knows may be luck is with losers this time. NBC suffer a lot in last 5-10 years. May be is payback time will see.

    ps And LOST is one in a lifetime show. No one will be able to launch that hit again in our lifetime. Other generation after us may be but not us.

  • Honey Badger

    Not only can I predict Television shows and ratings. I also predict sports!

    Just was I was right in predicting the San Francisco Giants would win the world Series in Major League baseball
    I am now predicting San Francisco 49ers will win the NFL Superbowl.
    Why: because they are cute; take a look at these good looking guys
    The San Francisco 49ers Colin Kaepernick, Alex Smith, Randy Moss , Vernon Davis, Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, and many more, this whole team is filled with cuties.
    San Francisco USA the championship city

    It is not easy so brilliant and this pretty

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