Even though it's only aired two-episodes, I've upgraded The Following to likely renewal. It's current ratings say certain renewal, but, again, it has only aired two episodes and is not out of the woods yet. Last week I reminded readers that Alcatraz opened well only to wind up canceled. Unlike Alcatraz, The Following improved in its second airing from a 3.2 adults 18-49 rating to a 3.3.
Alcatraz dropped three tenths in its second week, but to a still healthy 3.0 adults 18-49 rating. Similar to Alcatraz's second episode, the second episode of the The Following aired against repeats on CBS. CBS is all new this Monday and has the Super Bowl the night before to pimp its lineup...
For now other than Up All Night which has been on the bench a while, and 1600 Penn , and since it's "Super" Bowl Sunday, I'm going the route of that great super hero of my youth, Super Chicken, and have moved all the other recently very low-rated NBC sitcoms to the bubble.
I've seen many choruses of "I knew NBC would miss Sunday Night Football and The Voice!" (uhm, duh!) while Chicago Fire fans fire back "Yeah, yeah, maybe people don't like those shows, our show isn't missing The Voice or the NFL!"
While I still give Go On and Whitney an edge over Guys with Kids and The New Normal, at this point it's be ridiculous to list Guys with Kids as a likely cancellation and Go On as a likely renewal. It wouldn't be ridiculous to leave Guys with Kids as a likely cancellation and just move Go On on the bubble, but with their recent ratings convergence I'm going the "cluck, cluck, cluck Super Chicken!" route.
Either way, NBC has to be especially disappointed in the ratings erosion for Go On.
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
|666 Park Avenue||ABC||Canceled|
|Don't Trust the B---- in Apartment 23||ABC||Canceled|
|Made in Jersey||CBS||Canceled|
|Emily Owens, M.D.||CW||Canceled|
|Ben and Kate||Fox||Canceled|
|The Mob Doctor||Fox||Canceled|
|Do No Harm||NBC||Certain Cancellation|
|Happy Endings||ABC||Likely Cancellation|
|CSI: NY||CBS||Likely Cancellation|
|1600 Penn||NBC||Likely Cancellation|
|Up All Night||NBC||Likely Cancellation|
|Last Man Standing||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Malibu Country||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Cleveland Show, The||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Mindy Project, The||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Good Wife, The||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Mentalist, The||CBS||On The Bubble|
|90210||CW||On The Bubble|
|Carrie Diaries, The||CW||On The Bubble|
|Hart of Dixie||CW||On The Bubble|
|Nikita||CW||On The Bubble|
|Beauty and the Beast||CW||On The Bubble|
|Go On||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Guys with Kids||NBC||On The Bubble|
|New Normal, The||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Whitney||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Neighbors, The||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Hawaii Five-0||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|Following, The||Fox||Likely Renewal|
|Chicago Fire||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Law & Order: SVU||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Grey's Anatomy||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Middle, The||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Modern Family||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Once Upon a Time||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|2 Broke Girls||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Blue Bloods||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Criminal Minds||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Mike & Molly||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Person of Interest||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Two and a Half Men||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|The Vampire Diaries||CW||Certain Renewal|
|New Girl||Fox||Certain Renewal|
|Raising Hope||Fox||Certain Renewal|
|Big Bang Theory, The||CBS||Renewed|
|How I Met Your Mother||CBS||Renewed|
|Private Practice||ABC||Final SeasonFinished|
|Gossip Girl||CW||Final SeasonFinished|
|30 Rock||NBC||Final Season Finished|
|The Office||NBC||Final Season|