Even though it's only aired two-episodes, I've upgraded The Following to likely renewal. It's current ratings say certain renewal, but, again, it has only aired two episodes and is not out of the woods yet. Last week I reminded readers that Alcatraz opened well only to wind up canceled. Unlike Alcatraz, The Following improved in its second airing from a 3.2 adults 18-49 rating to a 3.3.
Alcatraz dropped three tenths in its second week, but to a still healthy 3.0 adults 18-49 rating. Similar to Alcatraz's second episode, the second episode of the The Following aired against repeats on CBS. CBS is all new this Monday and has the Super Bowl the night before to pimp its lineup...
For now other than Up All Night which has been on the bench a while, and 1600 Penn , and since it's "Super" Bowl Sunday, I'm going the route of that great super hero of my youth, Super Chicken, and have moved all the other recently very low-rated NBC sitcoms to the bubble.
I've seen many choruses of "I knew NBC would miss Sunday Night Football and The Voice!" (uhm, duh!) while Chicago Fire fans fire back "Yeah, yeah, maybe people don't like those shows, our show isn't missing The Voice or the NFL!"
While I still give Go On and Whitney an edge over Guys With Kids and The New Normal, at this point it's be ridiculous to list Guys With Kids as a likely cancellation and Go On as a likely renewal. It wouldn't be ridiculous to leave Guys With Kids as a likely cancellation and just move Go On on the bubble, but with their recent ratings convergence I'm going the "cluck, cluck, cluck Super Chicken!" route.
Either way, NBC has to be especially disappointed in the ratings erosion for Go On.
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
| Show | Network | Status |
| 666 Park Avenue | ABC | Canceled |
| Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 | ABC | Canceled |
| Last Resort | ABC | Canceled |
| Made In Jersey | CBS | Canceled |
| Partners | CBS | Canceled |
| Emily Owens, M.D. | CW | Canceled |
| Ben And Kate | Fox | Canceled |
| The Mob Doctor | Fox | Canceled |
| Animal Practice | NBC | Canceled |
| Do No Harm | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Happy Endings | ABC | Likely Cancellation |
| CSI: NY | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| Vegas | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| 1600 Penn | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Deception | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Up All Night | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Last Man Standing | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Malibu Country | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Cleveland Show, The | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Mindy Project, The | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Good Wife, The | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Mentalist, The | CBS | On The Bubble |
| 90210 | CW | On The Bubble |
| Carrie Diaries, The | CW | On The Bubble |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | On The Bubble |
| Nikita | CW | On The Bubble |
| Beauty And The Beast | CW | On The Bubble |
| Go On | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Guys With Kids | NBC | On The Bubble |
| New Normal, The | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Whitney | NBC | On The Bubble |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Castle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Neighbors, The | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Revenge | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Suburgatory | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Elementary | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Following, The | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| Chicago Fire | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Middle, The | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Modern Family | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Nashville | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Scandal | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| CSI | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Arrow | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Supernatural | CW | Certain Renewal |
| The Vampire Diaries | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Glee | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| New Girl | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Grimm | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Parenthood | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Revolution | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Big Bang Theory, The | CBS | Renewed |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Renewed |
| NCIS | CBS | Renewed |
| American Dad | Fox | Renewed |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | Renewed |
| Bones | Fox | Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Renewed |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Private Practice | ABC | Final SeasonFinished |
| Gossip Girl | CW | Final SeasonFinished |
| Fringe | Fox | Final SeasonFinished |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Final Season Finished |
| The Office | NBC | Final Season |
--
I think that The programming for The next fall season will be:
ABC
Mondays
8/7c-Dancing With The Stars
9/8c-Castle
Tuesdays
8/7c-Dancing With The Stars Results
9/8c-Last Man Standing
9:30/8:30c-Suburgatory
10/9c-New Drama
Wednesdays
8/7c-The Middle
8:30/7:30c-New Comedy
9/8c-Modern Family
9:30/8:30c-New Comedy
10/9c-New Drama
Thursdays
8/7c-New Drama
9/8c-Grey’s Anatomy
10/9c-Scandal
Fridays
8/7c-Shark Tank
9/8c-New Reality
10/9c-20/20
Sundays
8/7c-Once Upon A Time
9/8c-Revenge
10/9c-Nashville
NBC
Mondays
8/7c-The Voice
10/9c-Revolution
Tuesdays
8/7c-The Voice
9/8c-Go On
9:30/8:30c-New Comedy
10/9c-Parenthood
Wednesdays
8/7c-New Comedy
8:30/9:30c-New Comedy
9/8c-Law & Order:SVU
10/9c-Chicago Fire
Thursdays
8/7c-Parks And Recreation
8:30/9:30c-Whitney
9/8c-New Drama
10/9c-New Drama
Fridays
@CBSViewer,
I actually agree that all those moves would be the best, drama wise. Comedy wise, I would not move the big bang theory nor I think they would do it. I wouldn’t also demote 2broke girls from being anchor. I would simply move mike and molly to 8h30 so that mom could be launched after 2 broke girls. But the dramas i agree. Except that I think CBS will save the good wife (and I certainly hope so because I love the show), although it does not really fit with the schedule. I think the wisest move would actually be to keep the three bubble shows. Just insert the good wife in that friday at 8 timeslot for the fall for a short final season, and have undercover boss take over once it’s done. It is likely to do better than yet another failed new drama on friday IMO… Other than that, I agree with moving LA to Monday, it seems like a smart move, even though I am not sure the show is stronger than Hawaii once you take out the lead-in. As for Elementary, we will see post super bowl, but this is the kind of show that even though still has good enough numbers to avoid the bubble this season, seems to be that will soon be saved simply for the prospect of syndication by CBS. I mean, it has a highly compatible and high rated lead in from POI, only one other broadcast competition, is brand new and yet, only pulls the same ratings as CSI and Five-0. The Tuesday timeslot is currently a very weak one across broadcasts so if it remains like that next season, it could do well in there, although I say that we would be delaying the inevitable. But of course it will be renewed, yes.
@The Tuesday timeslot is currently a very weak one across broadcasts
I agree, that was mostly why I thought ABC might premiere S.H.E.I.L.D on a Tuesday.
Still missing Fringe. Can’t wait for Cult to premiere.
@The End,
I agree, but only if they move all the female skewing programs, especially the dwts results, away from the night. The night should be a male skewing night only. I would go with:
Sunday
Once Upon a Time
DWTS/ Specials and movies during winter
DWTS/ Specials and movies during winter
Monday
DWTS Results/ The Bachelor during winter
Revenge/ The Bachelor during winter
New Female Skewing Drama
Tuesday
Shield
New Make Skewing Drama
Castle
Wednesday
The Middle
Suburgatory
Modern Family
New Comedy
Nashville
Thursday
Grey’s Anatomy
Scandal
New Female Skewing Drama
Friday
Shark Tank
Last Man Standing
Malibu Country
20/20
So much for that comedy boom.
FoxFast’s TV listings (yes, they’re reliable) list The New Normal’s Halloween episode “Para New-Normal Activity” to be aired on February 19th, when the series returns. This will make TNN (and Go On) have four episodes to be aired after The Voice. Perhaps even more, if NBC uses any other February-March-April Tuesday for premiering stuff (just like they’re doing next week with Smash). In other words, NBC is going to save the averages for both Go On and The New Normal at all costs, not changing their schedule and using The Voice as lead-in again. If they weren’t interested in keeping these shows, they wouldn’t be airing the Halloween episode at all.
Glad to see VD,Nashville,Once Upon a Time,2 Broke Girls,Big Bang Theory certain renewals, hope Nashville stays there.Wish 90210,HoD,Carrie Diaries,Beauty & the Beast were certain renewals too.
Can someone answer the question of why CBS would move The Mentalist to Sundays?
It was pulling 2.5s and 3.0s on Thursday. Now it’s lucky if it makes it to eight million.
Can’t see the logic.
@psychic,
Because launching a new show on Thursdays behind PoI was easier than launching a new show on Sundays behind The Good Wife.
Guys with Kids DID get a back order of 5 episodes. I think and pray that it survives!!!!!!
On the subject of Elementary it’s post SB appearance may be marred by a blackout delay of the game. I understand play was suspended for up to 45 min which could very well push Elementary well out of primetime. I’m now thinking it could easily go well under 20m viewers.
ABC 2013-2014
Sundays
7:00 Shark Tank
8:00 AFHV
9:00 Grey’s Anatomy (probably would do tons better than Revenge)
10:00 Red Widow/Zero Hour/New Drama
Monday
8:00 Modern Family
8:30 New Comedy
9:00 Suburgatory
9:30 Happy Endings/New Comedy
10:00 SHIELD
Tuesday
8:00 The Middle
8:30 Malibu Country (I honestly don’t care about how many cameras the shows are shot with)
9:00 DWTS/ The Bachelor
Wednesday
8:00 DWTS Results/The Taste/ Some Midseason Reality Show
9:00 Nashville
10:00 Scandal
Thursday
8:00 New Drama
9:00 Zero Hour/Body Of Proof/Revenge
10:00 Body Of Proof/Revenge
Friday
8:00 Last Man Standing (Clearly doing well enough to stay)
8:30 The Neighbors
9:00 OUAT (move it into a cancelled drama’s slot if it doesn’t work)
10:00 20/20 (I can’t see it anywhere else)
@Honey Badger–So you are brillant and San Fransisco will win? Riiiiiiiiight–LOL!
The CBS ads during the Super Bowl left a strong impression that Vegas isn’t going anywhere.
I think CBS should do this for next Season:
Mondays:
8/7c: How I met your Mother(FS)/2.5 MEN(midseason)
8:30/7:30c: Mike and Molly
9/8c: 2BG
9:30/8:30c: Bad Teacher(N)
10/9c: Beverly Hills Cop(N)
Tuesdays:
8/7c: NCIS
9/8c: NCIS:Red
10/9c: Hawaii Five-0
Wednesdays:
8/7c: Survivor
9/8c: Criminal Minds
10/9c: NCIS:LA
Thursdays:
8/7c: Big Bang
8:30/7:30c: Mom(N)
9/8c: Person of Interest
10/9c: Second Sight(N)/ Hostages(N)
Fridays:
8/7c CSI:NY(FS)/Undercover Boss
9/8c:CSI
10/9c: Blue Bloods
Sundays:
8/7c: Amazing Race
9/8c: Elementary
10/9c: The Mentalist
I know some might think I’m crazy for holding CBS’s #2 comedy for midseason, but in all honesty, the show is old and CBS needs to find new hit comedies since 2.5 is getting old and HIMYM is ending.
How can Vegas be in the Likely Cancellation category?
@Rachel good point. Everyone (including myself) thought that the Halloween episode would never see the light on TV, even though it’s one of the funniest (it’s available on iTunes). Before this move, Go On had four episodes that would have aired after The Voice, while The New Normal had only three. Now both shows have four, which is pretty indicatory that NCB trusts this line-up and want them together. Demos and viewers will go up for those episodes once The Voice returns and this will be NBC’s “formal” excuse to renew them instead of other shows also pulling low 1′s this winter. “Non-formal” excuse is Matthew Perry and Ryan Murphy respectively.
“The CBS ads during the Super Bowl left a strong impression that Vegas isn’t going anywhere.”
Then the CBS promotional marketing folks have done their job well!