CBS: One Of 'The Good Wife,' 'CSI:NY' & 'The Mentalist' Will Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 5th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 3, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.52
CSI:NY (F) :cry: :cry: 0.52
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.59
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.61
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.71
Partners* canceled 0.79
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.84
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.86
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.96
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.05
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.19
NCIS renewed 1.31
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.33
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.47
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.09

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If you've just come from the ABC post this week, there's more water treading with the obvious here at this week's CBS post.

While it is certain that CBS will cancel one of the three shows in the headline to make room for a new drama next Fall (and possibly more if Golden Boy is renewed, or they reduce their drama hours) I'm the first to admit that guessing which of the three is probably my shakiest current prediction on any network.

I have CSI:NY as "likely canceled" based on little more than the fact that its season is ending early (and it's an old, low rated show, but that's nothing new). Would I be surprised if either The Good Wife or The Mentalist is canceled instead? Not one tiny bit. But I was going to make a call by the end of the season anyway, and it's unlikely I will know more before then, so I figured that fortune favors The Bold.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Ultima

    At least with CBS there can be some debate about which show will be canceled.

    It’s looking like FOX may have a single bubble show and everything else certain for all of March/April… ;)

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Rules of Engagement.”

    Not surprisingly, I totally forgot about it!

    Add one more topic to the rotation!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Unless CBS do a mass renewal in March like last season – although I guess that would make things EVEN MORE boring.”

    Maybe, but last year’s “mass renewal” simply renewed shows that were already “certain”.

  • Tom

    Fair enough, Bill.

    TGW was a toss up last season as well though, no?

  • Common Anomaly

    CBS has premiered 3 new dramas in the fall each of the last 7 seasons. In addition, one new drama has debuted in the fall on a Friday five out of the last 6 seasons (Made in Jersey, A Gifted Man, Blue Bloods, The Ex-List, Moonlight). With Undercover Boss performing well at 8 PM with six of the nine episodes receiving demos of 1.8 or 1.9 and with CBS’s history of not sending established dramas to Friday, except for CSI:NY and Medium, I would be surprised if The Good Wife or The Mentalist was moved to Friday. Thus, despite The Good Wife airing against much tougher competition (Walking Dead) and shows with similar audiences, such as Downton Abbey, Revenge, Real Housewives (before it moved to 8PM), and Homeland, I believe The Mentalist is significantly more likely to be renewed than The Good Wife because The Good Wife’s demo has decreased from 2.11 (through 14 episodes last season) to 1.74 (through 13 episodes this season) and with my belief that the Amazing Race will remain at 8PM, a new drama with a female lead, such as Toni Collette, has a better chance of improving and competing with a third and possibly tired season of Revenge than The Good Wife.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “TGW was a toss up last season as well though, no?”

    You are correct, I was wrong. TGW was predicted as a toss up when the mass renewal arrived, and I forgot it was renewed at that time.

  • Max Vrany

    @Bill, if CBS does a mass renewal again, you can spread it out over 9 weeks’ headlines! Depending on when that happens, it could take you to upfronts!

  • Ultima

    @Common Anomaly

    I agree that it is unlikely that CBS will move a drama to Friday (unless the only cancellation is CSI:NY, which would necessitate a move).

    My current prediction is that they will cancel The Good Wife and possibly CSI:NY (going with reality full time in the Friday 8pm timeslot). New dramas on Tuesday, Friday and Sunday.

  • Jenny G

    Simon Baker looking tired? Never, he is hot, hot, hot.

  • Jim

    @Mary Ann

    Unwatchable? Look, you have the Cartoon Network to watch all day long. Why begrudge thinking people 1 hour a week?

  • CBSviewer

    I hope all the new dramas will be canceled. Vegas is done, Made in Jersey is already canceled and Elementary is weak (Yes a 2.2 on Thursday at 10/9c is weak !). The bubble Shows are all good but I know CBS doesn’t care about quality, only money is important.
    I doubt The Good Wife will move to Friday if the Show is Renewed. Next Season, Blue Bloods will have a syndication deal and will certainly be canceled. With The Good Wife on Friday CBS will have to cancel two Friday dramas.
    Plus Hawaii Five-0 will also become a “Bubble Show” which means CBS will have four dramas in danger (CSI: NY or The Good Wife, Blue Bloods, The Mentalist and Hawaii Five-0).
    I guess The Good Wife should be canceled and give CSI: NY and The Mentalist a short final season.

  • Joe

    It’s no fun to guess which brainless cookie cutter procedural will be cancelled when you know some other brainless cookie cutter procedural is going to come in to replace it. CBS is awful.

  • Common Anomaly

    CBS drama pilots – 3 new dramas in the fall each of the last 7 seasons
    2013 – 10 pilots
    2012 – 7 pilots – 4 picked up to series
    2011 – 6 pilots – 4 picked up to series
    2010 – 9 pilots – 5 picked up to series
    2009 – 11 pilots – 5 picked up to series
    2008 – 9 pilots – 4 picked up to series
    2007 – 10 pilots – 4 picked up to series
    2006 – 11 pilots – 5 picked up to series
    2005 – 8 pilots – 5 picked up to series

  • outlawz

    next year i want cbs killing the other network tuesdays to be like this

    08. ncis
    09. new ncis <try la on monday move 5o to other night
    10. vegas 2013(half season) & golden boy (only if peak up for half seaso) if dont and unfogetable do good in the summer then brin it in as (unforgatable summer hit show)

  • Herb Finn

    I think we also need to factor in the good chance (more this year than any other based on number of pilots ordered) that CBS will add an hour of Comedy to Thursday, or an hour of Comedy on another night.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I think we also need to factor in the good chance (more this year than any other based on number of pilots ordered) that CBS will add an hour of Comedy to Thursday, or an hour of Comedy on another night.”

    While I think it’s much more likely that CBS keeps Friday 8pm unscripted (which would be a net loss of a drama hour vs. last Fall) than that, either are possible.

    But I don’t think either are *probable*.

  • Diane

    @jenny……hot, hot, hot, oh ya agreed! But I think five years is is taking its toll. I wonder why CBS doesnt consider giving The Mentalist a 9:00 time slot. Is it part of “if we just ignore it, it will just go away”?

  • Ultima

    @Diane
    I wonder why CBS doesnt consider giving The Mentalist a 9:00 time slot

    I’m sure they consider it and then decide that they would rather have other shows there.

  • Ricky

    CSI: NY really should have been cancelled long ago. But at least we still get another crossover special this week, wonder if that’ll improve its chances.

    Version 4.0 has begun: http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/12/09/play-the-elimination-game-page-2/160888/comment-page-54/#comments

  • Ultima

    @Diane

    NCIS:LA, Criminal Minds and Person of Interest are all strong shows and Monday has been comedies virtually forever. That leaves Sunday. Presumably they did’t want to move The Good Wife and were hoping that the higher potential ratings at 9pm would help with the synidcation sale.

    This is unlikely to change next season. The three dramas are unlikely to move (unless they want to use Tuesday 9pm for a new show), Monday will remain comedies and if The Good Wife is canceled, they’re far more likely to premiere a new show at 9pm on Sunday rather than at 10pm.

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