CW: 'Beauty & The Beast' Upgraded To Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 5th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 3, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Emily Owens, M.D. canceled 0.53
90210 :| :| :| 0.59
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.64
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.78
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.83
Beauty And The Beast :) :) :) :) 1.03
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.32
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.52
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.96

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In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. And given the current ratings for shows on the CW, the last two weeks of 0.7 adults 18-49 ratings for Beauty & The Beast makes it at least a prince. For that reason, I have elevated my prediction for it to likely to be renewed. Fans shouldn't get too excited, if the ratings go back down, so will my prediction. And after getting burned by the late season plunge for The Secret Circle, I'm extra twitchy this season.

If last night's 0.7 rating for The Carrie Diaries isn't just a temporary blip, things are about to get a lot more interesting at the CW. Even I doubt Mark Pedowitz would cancel a show drawing a 0.7 rating, to give a final season to a show drawing a 0.4 rating (90210). And if both The Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast can maintain those 0.7's while Hart Of Dixie is stuck at a 0.5, then things get worrisome for HOD fans.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • BPKK

    @Richard Steven
    “Wrong. Nikita is an ANOMALY. It can’t be compared to anything else. The apparent reason for its renewal was solely for overseas syndication in markets where Maggie Q is a big star. That has nothing whatever to do with TSC.”

    But that’s sort of my point or question. If Nikita is renewed solely because of the dollars it is bringing in for the studio through overseas sales and HOD was renewed over TSC because it was cheaper and had strong VOD viewing, unless people can see the production costs versus the ad revenue, VOD, iTunes, and international sales, etc. for each of the CW’s low rated shows, how can they say that X low-rated show will or should be renewed over Y low-rated show?

    Then there’s still the question of how CBS and Warner Brothers divide up the time slots. What happens if more of the profitable shows end up coming out of Warner Brothers. Does CBS get to share in any of Arrow’s overseas sales or iTunes sales? Last year 5 of the pilots came out of Warners and only 3 from CBS. Only Beauty and Emily went to series and now only Beauty is left with 90210 as CBS productions. This year 4 pilots are from CBS, 3 are from WB and 1 (The Originals) is from both.

    Cult is airing Tuesday Feb. 19th after HOD. Terrible time slot and lead in. I’m not sure why they didn’t move Beauty behind HOD but maybe they don’t have much faith in Cult. Although even if Cult is a hit, the producers told the network that they will only produced 13 episodes per season.

    @Seth
    “And I wouldn’t pay a dime for any Batb’s crap. Let alone networks would pay 1m for it LOOOL.”

    I don’t think any one international network paid 1m per episode for Beauty, I think $1.5 million is the combined per episode amount earned from international sales during last year’s third quarter for CBS. Here’s the quote and the link:

    “Meanwhile, before the fall season even started, we sold our own shows into a very strong international marketplace. This includes Elementary and Vegas, each of which went for more than $2 million per episode, making them immediately profitable franchises for us. And we sold The CW’s Beauty and the Beast, another CBS Studios production, for more than $1.5 million an episode as well.”
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/988901-cbs…anscript?page=2

  • Suzie

    I love Hart of Dixie & Emily Owens…Please don’t cancel them. They are both shows that allow you to relax and make you happy!!!!!

  • Monday:
    8PM: Supernatural
    9PM: The Tomorrow People

    Tuesday:
    8PM: The Carrie Diaries
    9PM: The Selection

    Wednesday:
    8PM: Arrow
    9PM: Cult

    Thursday:
    8PM: The Vampire Diaries
    9PM: The Originals

    Friday:
    8PM: Nikita
    9PM: Beauty and the Beast

  • zun

    oh my God, the fans of “Beauty and the Beast” really not normal. I’ve never watched that show, and when I see what its fans definitely have no intention, man these people are crazy.

  • JulieDawn

    @Suzie

    Emily Owens has already been cancelled and filming stopped a while ago. Last night’s ep was the final one.

  • Charmed

    Cult needs to fail for HOD to survive, and I think it probably will. B&TB I think will get a 0.6 for the rest of the season, and might get canceled. I think even with TCD and B&TB doing better than HOD, I think HOD still has a higher chance, it’s in it’s second season which means its closer to syndication, and the demo difference is only 0.1. I think if this season of 90210 isn’t announced as the last within a month, it will get a short final season, maybe in summer. I think TCD would get renewed over B&TB as it is cheaper and gets about the same ratings. I don’t even need to mention TVD, Arrow or Supernatural, and Nikita will get a final season for syndication purposes.

  • JulieDawn

    @Charmed

    Where on earth do you get that TCD is cheaper than BATB (I presume you mean in production costs)? As has already been stated (with proof) in this and other threads, one of the things BATB likely does have going for it is the financial end of the stick.

  • Tyler

    The fact that yesterday on TNT Supernatural got a 0.4 rating at 10 in the morning means that 90210 does not deserve to be renewed.

  • Bizarro

    @JulieDawn
    You are right on target, B&tB but also HOD have way better chance of being renewed right now than TCD because they are both cheaper to produce and the network did not expect these shows to do well unlike TCD which they spend a ton of money promoting it online, even when the show premiered with a .6 and went down to a .5 they STILL were promoting it heavily. You’ve got two shows that have solid ratings that are getting a tenth below or the same TCD that got a .7 probably from all the promotion that gets put into it. But what will happen later on in the season when the CW stops promoting it so much? B&tB and HOD are barely (if any at all) getting any online promotion anymore that are getting the about the same or the same ratings as TCD. Also HOD has the second season factor, DVR numbers and the syndication possibility for next season. Since TVD is getting syndication numbers this season and Nikita will get its syndication next season and 99.9% sure be ending next season they will need another show for syndication and HOD is the closest too it followed by Arrow and B&tB. Since TCD only will get 13 eps this season that leaves it at a disadvantage over the other new shows.

  • Brandy

    Bizzaro, you dont know Carrie Diaries will have only 13 episodes, CW could order 4_6 more and with its ratings on the rise and I doubt CW will want a second hour of reruns during the week in mid April, and with its 0.7 Mondsy, I think CD will get more episodes especially because with all the promotion and reruns, they clearly want to make CD be a hit.It wont get a full season because theres not enough time, but it could get 17_18 episodes.Cult is the only show for sure not getting a back order, CWs been clear on it only being 13 episodes because of time and wanting a cable length season.Im sure theyll announce it this week or next Tues CD gets more episodes, just cause they havdnt announced it_Beauty aired 4_5 episodes before it a back nine.

  • JulieDawn

    @Brandy

    It’s possible (although unlikely) the CW could maybe order 1-2 more Carrie eps but anything more than that would be impossible writing & filming-wise in order to air this season. They don’t just films these eps one week and air them the next, there are several weeks of post-production involved too, not to mention cast/crew/facilities/locations etc all contracted for certain periods and not necessarily available for longer.

  • JulieDawn

    @Brandy

    And this is also presuming that TCD is in fact still filming, I haven’t looked it up but they may have already finished the 13 last year and stopped filming for the season already.

  • JulieDawn

    @Bizarro

    Completely right abt the promotion, almost all the online promotion that BATB gets is from the fans, or even from CBS. CBS actually does a fair amount, at least when you compare it to the amount from the CW.

  • Brandy

    Julie Dawn, I say that cause OTH season five started in Jan but it got more episodes, a total of 18 that season so they could that with Carrie.Plus, like I said, its ratings rose and I dont think theyd just ignore that then have to air another hour of reruns from April 15_May 13

  • JulieDawn

    @Brandy

    They aren’t going to be airing the rest of the shows back to back anyway, there will be several weeks off for various reasons, as on all the networks. We already know many of the CW shows aren’t airing new eps last week of Feb. So there is no way they’d be airing only repeats from mid-April anyway.

  • Charmed

    @JulieDawn I’m not an expert on the financial side of things, but I would assume that TCD doesn’t require the same special effects as BATB.

  • JulieDawn

    @Charmed

    Actually you’d be surprised how much CGI is used in TCD, removing non-80′s buildings and references etc. Just because a show is or isn’t ‘sci-fi’ has absolutely zero bearing on the effects budget.
    But the main diff is that TCD is filmed in NYC, whereas BATB is filmed in Toronto in conjunction with a Canadian production company, which all boiled down gets the CW more money/costs them less (as per previous posts).

  • Jared

    What people on this site dont understand is that the CW is NOT gonna base renewals solely on just the A18-49 demo. The bubble series adult demos are so close in numbers that the network will also look at A18-34 W18-34 W18-49 viewers 12-34 etc. Those demos will paint a better overall picture of what series are actually doing better than others.

  • JulieDawn

    @Charmed

    And (sorry I hit enter on the other post too quickly), BATB doesn’t use as much CGI as you might think. Many of the ‘Beast’ effects are achieved by make-up, the acting by the cast, and stunt work.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “What people on this site dont understand is that the CW is NOT gonna base renewals solely on just the A18-49 demo. The bubble series adult demos are so close in numbers that the network will also look at A18-34 W18-34 W18-49 viewers 12-34 etc. Those demos will paint a better overall picture of what series are actually doing better than others.”

    You’re right, but they do the same thing *every* season, and over the last several years, predicting using adults 18-49 ratings alone has served us very well with CW shows when there’s a reasonable gap between their adults 18-49 ratings.

    It’s only when there isn’t a reasonable gap (like the current situation between The Carrie Diaries and Hart of Dixie), and we’re forced to choose at the end of the season that we tend to make mistakes.

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