CW: 'Beauty & The Beast' Upgraded To Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 5th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 3, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Emily Owens, M.D. canceled 0.53
90210 :| :| :| 0.59
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.64
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.78
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.83
Beauty And The Beast :) :) :) :) 1.03
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.32
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.52
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.96

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In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. And given the current ratings for shows on the CW, the last two weeks of 0.7 adults 18-49 ratings for Beauty & The Beast makes it at least a prince. For that reason, I have elevated my prediction for it to likely to be renewed. Fans shouldn't get too excited, if the ratings go back down, so will my prediction. And after getting burned by the late season plunge for The Secret Circle, I'm extra twitchy this season.

If last night's 0.7 rating for The Carrie Diaries isn't just a temporary blip, things are about to get a lot more interesting at the CW. Even I doubt Mark Pedowitz would cancel a show drawing a 0.7 rating, to give a final season to a show drawing a 0.4 rating (90210). And if both The Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast can maintain those 0.7's while Hart Of Dixie is stuck at a 0.5, then things get worrisome for HOD fans.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • JulieDawn

    @Jared

    Exactly. That and many other factors may be classified here as ‘Fan Excuse Bingo’, but that doesn’t make it any less true when so many shows are rating so close together.

    Even if Bill doesn’t agree lol!

  • Lauren

    @Bizarro

    ” B&tB but also HOD have way better chance of being renewed right now than TCD because they are both cheaper to produce and the network did not expect these shows to do well unlike TCD which they spend a ton of money promoting it online”

    Is that serious?? BATB cheaper than TCD to produce? LOL!

    And HOD is the only show with no promotion except a 20sec clip every week. No extended promo, sneak peeks or producer’s preview.

    HOD and BATB have nothing in common. And on which planet CW doesn’t except great ratings for BATB? Of course they did when you put your best lead-in for a show.

  • Lauren

    @zun

    BATB fans remind me Ringer fans. You know, when they said “our show has only a million of viewers but we won awards, we’re good internationnally and it’s Sarah Michelle Gellar” Just put Kristin Kreuk over SMG.

    And when BATB will be cancelled, they’ll say “maybe another network can take it?” LOL!

  • thesnowleopard

    @Richard Steven Hack

    The jockeying for prime-Bear-bait position by CW shows in the spring is precisely why that network’s ratings are fun to watch.

    Regarding Nikita, no, it’s not an anomaly and there has never been any concrete proof that it does well overseas, let alone well enough to offset its bad ratings. It’s more likely that the show’s overall numbers rated slightly better than Hellcats’ at the end of its first season (especially since Hellcats tanked in the last month), that its budget has been slashed and the studio is offering it to the CW for a song, and that it has done just enough better than some other failing shows might on Fridays to justify keeping it there while it racks up a syndication number. The CW still has a lot of slots to fill, so there’s still room for a moderate failure like Nikita, at least on Fridays.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    BPKK: “If Nikita is renewed solely because of the dollars it is bringing in for the studio through overseas sales and HOD was renewed over TSC because it was cheaper and had strong VOD viewing, unless people can see the production costs versus the ad revenue, VOD, iTunes, and international sales, etc. for each of the CW’s low rated shows, how can they say that X low-rated show will or should be renewed over Y low-rated show?”

    Because we have either evidence or logic for one over the other. We have the FACT that Nikita was renewed despite pathetic ratings. That can only be explained by the overseas syndication factor. And that can only be explained by Maggie Q being big in Asia (and perhaps elsewhere.)

    There is no such evidence for TSC. If you can produce some, it would help your case.

    “Does CBS get to share in any of Arrow’s overseas sales or iTunes sales?”

    In general, the studios get the syndication revenue, not the network. I’m not sure about international sales of the show, but I assume the studios get that as well as iTunes. Of course, I suppose it’s always possible that a network might say, “We’ll air your show if we get a cut of your other revenues.” But I would guess that is very rare because for almost all networks, ad revenue is the main revenue and other revenues are not that compelling to negotiate for. iTunes for example is miniscule.

    “Meanwhile, before the fall season even started, we sold our own shows into a very strong international marketplace. This includes Elementary and Vegas, each of which went for more than $2 million per episode, making them immediately profitable franchises for us. And we sold The CW’s Beauty and the Beast, another CBS Studios production, for more than $1.5 million an episode as well.”
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/988901-cbs…anscript?page=2

    The CBS profitability on BATB doesn’t do the CW much good. Ad revenues are much more important.

    BATB needs to hold it’s .7 current rating for it to have a shot at renewal. And as I’ve said, IF they continue to emphasize the conspiracy angle, they might be able to do that. But if they return to straight police procedural and the love story, I think they’ll drop back to .5 territory and get canceled. .5 on a week night (other than Friday) is very bad.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    thesnowleopard: “there has never been any concrete proof that it does well overseas, let alone well enough to offset its bad ratings.”

    There is the FACT that it was renewed with pathetic ratings. You have another explanation other than overseas syndication?

    There is the FACT that Maggie Q is very big in Asia. You have evidence otherwise?

    “that its budget has been slashed”

    Evidence?

    “and the studio is offering it to the CW for a song”

    And why would the studio do that if it doesn’t expect syndication revenue? As I’ve said before, both the studio and the network would obviously expect third season ratings to be LOWER than even season two, which were pathetic.

    “and that it has done just enough better than some other failing shows might on Fridays to justify keeping it there while it racks up a syndication number”

    So you admit the whole point is syndication – even while you deny that overseas syndication is relevant? Confused much?

    “there’s still room for a moderate failure like Nikita, at least on Fridays.”

    State the obvious much?

    Face it, you’re grasping at straws to explain why Nikita was renewed. There’s only one logical answer: overseas syndication.

    Which means a fourth season. It’s that simple.

  • Tom

    @ Mr. Gorman Congrats on once again successfully stirring up a hornets nest of CW trolls. You should be inundated with new page views by now.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Congrats on once again successfully stirring up a hornets nest of CW trolls.”

    I wish I could take credit for some master plan, but it’s really just “present the obvious and stir”, voila, craziness!

  • brandon

    man I would be really pissed if HOD got cancelled. I have never been worried for it. This is weird and I dont like it lol

  • Pepper

    90210 will be cancelled, and either TCD or Cult will be cancelled as well. HOD and Nikita should be safe, and BatB may possibly be safe as long as it can keep those ratings.

  • H

    “Is that serious?? BATB cheaper than TCD to produce? LOL!”

    Why is this so difficult to believe? Filming in NY is more expensive than filming in Toronto. This was posted on KSite TV:

    “CBS found the right collection of loopholes to make it financially viable. It is a joint production with Take 5 of Toronto and qualifies as Canadian Content which means CBS can charge the Canadian broadcaster a lot more than if it were a US show or even a US show that is filmed in Canada (like The Secret Circle). Those cheap Canadian imports go for so little in the US because they are Canadian Content and the Canadian broadcaster pays a lot for CanCon compared to imports. Since the Canadian broadcaster of BATB doesn’t have a part in making the show it isn’t simply money moving from the left hand to the right hand but is ‘new cash’ to the bottom line. You don’t (ever) find a US company owning/making a show that qualifies as CanCon. It is a bit of a ‘cash cow’ if all the ducks can get aligned.”

  • Ben from VA

    This question is for Bill Gorman .. DO you think The CW will bring back Sunday Night TV? I used to love their sunday lineup when it was the wb

  • BPKK

    @Richard Steven Hack

    “In general, the studios get the syndication revenue, not the network. I’m not sure about international sales of the show, but I assume the studios get that as well as iTunes.”

    Right, but in the case of the CW since it is jointly owned by Warner Brothers and CBS, the studios are the network so Warner gets the ad revenue from Arrow, Nikita, Supernatural as well as the international sales, syndication, iTunes, etc. I have no idea how TSC’s international sales were and I never watched the show, but I would assume that since it was cancelled even though it finished 3rd in the ratings for the network, that it was making less money or losing more money than the 7 other shows that weren’t cancelled and was viewed as having less money making potential than the 5 pilots that were picked up instead.

    What I’m curious about is how the two studios divide up the revenue and expenses associated with the CW and how that impacts the renewal and pilot pickup decisions. Right now, if I’m looking at things correctly, most of the shows currently on the CW are WB studio shows. 90210 looks like it should be cancelled at the end of this season, but if that happens, BatB would be the only CBS Studio show on the network. Does that mean that most of the pilot pickups this fall will be those coming out of CBS Studios or once a show goes to series on the CW, do CBS and WB share equally in any of the revenue a show generates. That’s why I was asking about Arrow and whether CBS Studios as a joint owner of the CW would share in any of its international sales revenue, etc.

    “The CBS profitability on BATB doesn’t do the CW much good. Ad revenues are much more important.”

    But again, half of the CW is CBS, and the CW was created to make money for CBS and Warner Brothers so from what I understand, as long as a show is making money for one of those studios in some fashion, whether through ad revenue or international or online deals, the CW will keep renewing it for as long as they can, even if the Nielsen numbers would indicate otherwise. Here’s what the LA Times wrote when the CW and Netflix made their deal:

    For CW’s parent companies, CBS Corp. and Time Warner Inc.’s Warner Bros., the deal will put the partnership in the black, CBS Chief Executive Leslie Moonves said.

    “It essentially makes the CW a profitable enterprise,” Moonves said in an interview Thursday. That means CBS and Warner Bros. will make money off the shows they produce for CW, even if the network itself does not recover its programming costs with advertising revenue. Warner Bros. Television Group President Bruce Rosenblum echoed Moonves’ sentiment, saying the joint venture “just became more valuable.”

    Last year at this time, Nikita was ranked #10 in the demo avg. for the network and would decline to #11 at the end of March. Obviously people who were predicting it would be cancelled based on its Nielsen numbers were wrong and that’s why I’m questioning how people on here can be predicting which of the numerous lowly rated shows on the CW will be cancelled or renewed unless they have access to other info like production costs, overseas sales, etc.

  • Dan

    I’m not sure if it has anything to do with that but I read that the studio is very pleased with the way it sold overseas. Not that this matters for The CW but I’m sure that the prodction company wants more BatB so they might offer the network a good deal, similar to Nikita. I heard – don’t know if it’s true – that The cw pays next to nothing for Nikita so that I can reach syndication.

  • AT

    I think they will end up renewing Beauty and the Beast and canceling Hart of Dixie. HOD is not doing that well in the ratings and its in its second season. Why renew it for a third when that’s almost like renewing it for a fourth as well? The show is fun and entertaining, but its second season didn’t pick up ratings wise. Beauty and the Beast is doing better, plus it has potential for a second season to get more viewers. Not to mention based on the pilots Pedowitz is doing, BATB just seems like a better fit for the direction he seems to be taking the network. IE: Genre driven.

    90210 is a goner and deservedly so. They have enough time to wrap up the series by season’s end. Anything more would be absolutely ridiculous. That said, TCD renewal depends around not going back down to .5′s consistently.

    Most likely, I think 90210 and HOD will be canceled with BATB renewed. I think TCD could go either way. As for Cult, it’s hard to say. But with the popularity of “The Following” perhaps it has a really good chance to do well and remain a short season show.

    Obviously, TVD, Arrow and Supernatural will be renewed.

  • Eran

    I hate CW so much! I mean because the ratings our too low and too close to each other, a 0.1 can change a show’s faith. I love TCD right now, but I’m not sure last week’s rating prove it has an upward trend. I guess it can have a “buzz renewal”, the renewal given to shows that can gain viewers next season (see Scandal, season 1 of Happy Endings, probably Mindy Project etc.) So if the ratings are even i think:

    1)TCD has a better chance of renewal than HoD or BatB, because it’s self-starter, it has the buzz going on.
    2)HoD has a better chance of renewal than BatB because it is older, and has a worse pair, and has been getting the same ratings as last year (I’m not so sure about the last thing I said)

  • Charmed

    HOD should be fine, the last episode was steady with the same episode last year. And it has the second season and cheap to make factor.

  • Angellica .T.

    well secret circle is really good it should have never been cancelled the cw messed up somewhere.Please cw renew the secret circle for more seasons

  • AT

    Eran, I have to disagree. I like HOD BUT it was renewed to see if the ratings would go up this season. They didn’t. Renewing it would be like renewing it for two seasons because of syndication. I think like Life Unexpected if the ratings don’t pick up it will be gone after the second season.

    As for buzz that doesn’t mean a whole lot. There’s been a lot of negative stuff said about TCD as well. Though, I don’t necessarily think it will get canceled yet. Unless Pedowitz finds a way to have four new shows instead of three.

    Anyway, as for being a self-starter, no one can really say how BATB would do on its own because it hasn’t had its chance. The fact that there has been a growing fanbase, it won the People’s Choice, and the ratings have been doing better than a lot of other shows on the CW, they may want to find out and give it a chance in its second season. My guess? They will move it to Friday night with Nikita. OR to Tuesday.

    If they only have enough money to bring in 3 new shows next season then some shows still have a chance. I really think they will cancel 90210 and Hart of Dixie. Emily Owen’s has already been canceled. So IMO, I think TCD may get another shot unless it completely drops. And then they will put a new show with that (count that as one new show). On Tuesday, there will be room for another new show (count that as two). They will either move BATB here with this new show, or they will put Another Top Model here for a half season and then replace it midseason with Cult (if that does well). Unless ATM only becomes a summer show, then there’s room for a shorter season for another series.

    Wednesday will be Arrow and Supernatural. I think Thursday will probably be TVD and The originals (count that as third new show). And then Friday will either be BATB and Nikita OR Another Top Model with Cult replacing it midseason. So interchange BATB/ATM/Cult on Tuesday/Friday.

    So based on ratings and IMO being realistic because of 4th season syndication, I really think HOD will go. The other show gone will definitely be 90210. It doesn’t deserve a final season. They have plenty of time to wrap it up. The other shows may get pick ups unless Pedowitz finds a way to put on more than 3 shows next season. Just my opinion at this point.

  • Charmed

    You’re crazy if you honestly believe HOD will be canceled.

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