CW: 'Beauty & The Beast' Upgraded To Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 5th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 3, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Emily Owens, M.D. canceled 0.53
90210 :| :| :| 0.59
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.64
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.78
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.83
Beauty And The Beast :) :) :) :) 1.03
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.32
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.52
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.96

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In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. And given the current ratings for shows on the CW, the last two weeks of 0.7 adults 18-49 ratings for Beauty & The Beast makes it at least a prince. For that reason, I have elevated my prediction for it to likely to be renewed. Fans shouldn't get too excited, if the ratings go back down, so will my prediction. And after getting burned by the late season plunge for The Secret Circle, I'm extra twitchy this season.

If last night's 0.7 rating for The Carrie Diaries isn't just a temporary blip, things are about to get a lot more interesting at the CW. Even I doubt Mark Pedowitz would cancel a show drawing a 0.7 rating, to give a final season to a show drawing a 0.4 rating (90210). And if both The Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast can maintain those 0.7's while Hart Of Dixie is stuck at a 0.5, then things get worrisome for HOD fans.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Tom

    @ AT You can’t put B&B in any 8 PM time slots, especially Fridays. It’s at best a 0.6/0.7 rated show. The CW broadcasts Arrow and TVD in 8 PM time slots in hopes of attracting an audience might stay for the following program. That certainly hasn’t happened with B&B, so there’s no reason to suspect it will work as a lead in to another program. Moreover, putting it on at 8 PM Fridays is a death sentence. The audience would be chicks braiding each other’s hair and spinsters. This may be a moot discussion though because, if it get bumped from Thursdays, I believe B&B will ultimately be cancelled. Besides its ratings, one of the reasons is that the CW won’t be able to find another spot for it. The network certainly isn’t going to waste a prime 9 PM slot on an under performing show when it can put a new series there instead.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    BPKK: “in the case of the CW since it is jointly owned by Warner Brothers and CBS, the studios are the network so Warner gets the ad revenue from Arrow, Nikita, Supernatural as well as the international sales, syndication, iTunes, etc.”

    Uhm, not quite. The network may be owned by WB and CBS, but it’s a distinct financial corporate entity. WB and CBS get the PROFIT from that revenue – if any, not the revenue itself.

    “What I’m curious about is how the two studios divide up the revenue and expenses”

    They don’t. They hold shares in the network, and invested X dollars when the network was created. After that, it’s up to the network to get revenue and produce profit. WB and CBS may kick in more money from time to time as investments, but they probably don’t actually control the network finances directly. Of course, they can INFLUENCE those revenues by the price they charge the network for their shows. Which is presumably what is happening with Nikita.

    “BatB would be the only CBS Studio show on the network. Does that mean that most of the pilot pickups this fall will be those coming out of CBS Studios”

    Doubtful. The studios pitch what they have and the network picks and chooses, probably without regard to how many shares each WB and CBS have in the network. Of course, I wouldn’t be surprised if the relative ownership shares of WB and CBS might influence those decisions, but we have to remember that those studios also sell shows to the other networks.

    “once a show goes to series on the CW, do CBS and WB share equally in any of the revenue a show generates.”

    That would depend on whether they have equal ownership in the network. Presumably the network’s and the studios’ annual reports would indicate that.

    “as long as a show is making money for one of those studios in some fashion, whether through ad revenue or international or online deals, the CW will keep renewing it for as long as they can, even if the Nielsen numbers would indicate otherwise.”

    No, what matters is the AMOUNT of revenue versus expenses. They will only renew it for as long as they make money. HOW they make the money is also important, and there ad revenue is much more important than any other factor, even syndication – because money now is better than money later. However, if a show isn’t producing ad revenue, the studios may decide to see if they can recoup their expenses via syndication. Any revenue is better than no revenue! :-)

    But they will only produce further seasons of a show that does not produce ad revenue if they’re fairly confident the show can make it back in syndication. The bottom line is they aren’t going to produce a show for which they can’t see any profit now or in the future. HOW that decision is made in any given case is unknown to us, however.

    “That means CBS and Warner Bros. will make money off the shows they produce for CW, even if the network itself does not recover its programming costs with advertising revenue”

    This is essentially “syndication” in another format. They’re selling the shows to Netflix just as they would sell them to another network in another country. I don’t know the details or size of the Netflix deal, but my guess would be that ad revenue continues to be the main revenue in comparison to the Netflix deal revenue.

    After all, they said the Netflix deal puts them in the black, which means the Netflix deal INCREMENTALLY improved the profitability of the network. It doesn’t necessarily mean that ad revenue is no longer relevant. It means that the total CW ad revenue was insufficient to make the network profitable, and the Netflix deal “put it over the top.” But ad revenue remains the single biggest revenue the network makes.

    “Obviously people who were predicting it would be cancelled based on its Nielsen numbers were wrong and that’s why I’m questioning how people on here can be predicting which of the numerous lowly rated shows on the CW will be cancelled or renewed unless they have access to other info like production costs, overseas sales, etc.”

    Again, Nikita has a fairly obvious reason which makes it different from shows like TSC. It has a very likely guaranteed syndication deal, at least in Asia where Maggie Q is a big star, and perhaps elsewhere as well. In fact, Nikita very likely has had a deal made for TWO seasons, not just the third. As I’ve said before, it makes sense for WB to offer the show for cheap to the CW regardless of the third season ratings if it expects to make up that money in the future via syndication.

    For the CW, as long as the show is PROFITABLE – because it’s getting it for next to nothing – it makes financial sense to renew it. WB may be losing ad revenue profits from the CW for this show in the short term, but that was happening anyway because of the low ratings. Clearly WB expects to recoup those losses and perhaps make a profit in the future. That’s the only possible reason for renewing a show that low in ratings.

  • Jana Higgins

    Eww. get rid of BATB and bring back the Secret Circle. like seriously.

  • Jared

    Although I was never a huge fan of The Secret Circle, I do feel it was cancelled prematurely and could have been a great companion series to MTVs Teen Wolf.

  • Win

    These BatB fans… HoD is going to have a greater chance at renewal than most.

    all these it was renewed for growth purposes statements are silly. Where is your proof of that? HoD was a cheap, self-starter with stable ratings, TSC was not. BatB may be cheap, but it’s not a self starter, and it’s ratings stability has yet to be determined.

    Yes, HoD is older, yes renewing it may mean renewing it for 4th season as well. But honestly, there’s going to be two Friday slots available following Nikita’s inevitable exit after the 13-14 season. HoD can go there and live out it’s last season.

  • feinn

    Hart of Dixie 90210 and Cult are likely to get canceled…..if BatB collapes, then hart of dixie might survive

  • JJA

    @win–what makes you think B&TB is cheap?

    Its special effects and action sequences (not to mention the Beast’s makeup) probably drive-up the cost of production.

    If you ask me, COST probably had something to do with the renewal of HOD over the (more expensive) Secret Circle.

    For this reason, I think B&TB must distinguish itself from the other bubble shows if it is to be renewed. If it scores a .7, while TCD scores a .5, the network will probably just renew TCD (for cost reasons).

  • feinn

    I predict a series low for beauty and the beast next week because Valentine’s day hurts ratings

  • Wardriver

    @JJA they say B&TB is cheap because CBS Studios found a way to offset the cost of production by making it a co-production with a Canadian studio.

  • Ginger

    Under the assumption that a short season order of 90210 is used as a midseason backup…

    Monday:
    8PM: The Carrie Diaries
    9PM: Beauty & the Beast (NEW TIME) <- CBS isn't going to be airing a crime procedural and this night will mix teen soap and fantasy.

    Tuesday:
    8PM: Heart of Dixie
    9PM: Supernatural (NEW TIME) <-The oddest pairing on the network, but the CW needs something strong to help the cursed Tuesdays at 9PM slot. Once upon a time Buffy & Dawson's Creek worked, so…

    Wednesday:
    8PM: Arrow
    9PM: The Selection (NEW SHOW)
    They ordered this show to pilot twice, so they must really believe in the idea.

    Thursday:
    8PM: The Vampire Diaries
    9PM: The Originals (NEW SHOW)
    Give the whole night to the Vampires and focus on the rest of the week.

    Friday:
    8PM: Nikita
    9PM: Top Model (Aug – Dec) / Cult (NEW TIME) OR The Tomorrow People (NEW SHOW)
    A single cycle of Top Model and then new blood in January like Cult season two or The Tomorrow People.

    This would give the CW 2 new shows (The Selection & The Originals) to promote and 2 time slot changes (Beauty and the Beast & Supernatural) in the fall and potentially 2 shows (90210 and Cult/The Tomorrow People) in winter,

  • Silver Fang

    Really been enjoying the last few episodes of Beauty and the Beast. Hope it’s renewed.

  • Mark3

    Get rid of beauty beast. KEEP DIXIE!!!!!

  • AT

    I’m crazy to think it’s possible to cancel Hart of Dixie when it’s at a toss up right now? LOL. I’m trying to be objective here. I enjoy HOD myself, and I actually liked The Secret Circle for a while. Though I do feel it took a bad creative turn (that’s subjective though). Right now, I think BATB is likely to be renewed with 90210 and HOD getting canceled. That’s a fair, objective guess. Trust me if BATB was sitting at a .5 I would be guessing it’s cancellation despite enjoying the show.

    That said, to the condescending person who said only girls braiding each other’s hair and spinsters would watch BATB on Friday night. Moonlight, which was also a BATB type show that came from the creators of the original BATB did well on Friday night. It was canceled for money and political reasons rather than ratings. It was sitting comfortably between 7-8 million viewers with fairly high demos on a Friday night in the death slot during the writer’s strike.

    It’s possible the show might not do that bad there. Grimm’s surviving, which is another urban fantasy series.

  • JulieDawn

    And Friday certainly never hurt SPN

  • Tom

    @ AT Moonlight? Really? That was broadcast in 2007-08. That means it falls under the “Gunsmoke rule”. You can find an explanation of that elsewhere on this site.

    Moving on, my comment was that “You can’t put B&B in any 8 PM time slots, especially Fridays. For what it’s worth, Grimm is on at 9 PM and and is doing more than “surviving”. It has over twice the demo of B&B. Its ratings have gone up during its second season and it regularly plays to over 5 MM viewers. That’s undoubtedly because it has a unique evolving storyline that is becoming increasingly more interesting. B&B is a poor rehash of a earlier show that wasn’t really much more entertaining. Moreover, the chemistry between Giutoli and Mitchell on Grimm really ties the show together. Unlike KK and Rosannadanna, there’s real acting going on there. Furthermore, in contrast to the barbies on B&B, the cops on Grimm are actually convincing. In short, while the chicks in the Babysitters Club may disagree, there’s no comparison between the two shows.

  • Vogs

    I love Hart of Dixie. I hope its ratings start to improve. I even got my older sister (upper 30s) to start watching. I think others like here would love it; most just don’t know how to find the CW since no other shows on the net appeal to them. CBS should air some episodes on Fridays or Saturdays this summer (I know it’s unlikely, and didn’t work for VM, but again I think it has a potential audience that isn’t the typical CW audience). Very curious to see how Cult does, and if it impacts HoD at all.

  • Beauty and the Flop

    BaTB fans are annoying. Stop crying all over the internet! And stop calling each other beasties, it’s pathetically childish and laughable.

  • Wardriver

    ^Pissed off TSC fan.

  • Cody R

    For anyone curious on an early review of Cult, its watchability and possible worthiness of our time, I found this interesting. I know a lot of stuff has been said about this show getting bad word of mouth so far, but this one is actually positive!

  • FanBatb

    @ Tom, I am a fan of BATB since starting the show, know its flaws and all the criticism that he can give, but I still love the show, and I’m also a fan of Grimm I follow from the first season, and not ‘s why I enjoy them just compare the two, I go into every post in which he speaks of BATB and see that you do the same, if you hate the show just do not look and do not follow each news coming out about it just ignore there is no need for each comentartio stoned, and this also goes for fans of TSC Please! the show was canceled and let it go Look for another show and let us BATB fans of “dreaming” if we place a renewal, and I assure you that if you cancel you will feel much but go forward …

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