Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 3, 2013):
| Program | Status | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| The Mob Doctor* | canceled | 0.31 |
| Fringe* (F) | final season complete | 0.50 |
| Ben And Kate* | canceled | 0.60 |
| The Cleveland Show |  |
0.62 |
| The Mindy Project |  |
0.77 |
| Raising Hope |  |
0.82 |
| New Girl | |
1.07 |
| Bones | renewed | 1.12 |
| Glee | |
1.16 |
| American Dad | renewed | 1.22 |
| Bob's Burgers | renewed | 1.22 |
| The Simpsons | renewed | 1.46 |
| Family Guy | renewed | 1.60 |
| The Following | |
1.60 |
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After the first three weeks of The Following ratings of 3.2, 3.3, 2.9 (preliminary, not in the calculation above) I'm elevating it to certain to be renewed.
Could it still take a dive, ala Alcatraz last spring, and be canceled? Of course. And if it does, I will move my prediction down, just like I did with Alcatraz. Stay tuned.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old" Fall predictions in the table.
Notes:
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- certain to be cancelled by May, 2013 - - more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
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- more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013 - - certain to be renewed by May, 2013
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.
Always happy to see Glee is still safely certain to be renewed despite the recent downward curve of its ratings
I do think Fox would be better served to put New Girl and The Mindy Project (or a new comedy if Mindy gets canceled) in the post-X-Factor/Idol spot next season. Then Glee should either be put back on Tuesdays at 9 or Fridays at 9, depending on how the ratings pan out the rest of this season.
Question for you Bill: If Fox orders a 22-episode season for a veteran show and that show then performs poorly, can they cut back the number of episodes?
Sky. Yes.
Yes cbs did it with medium. They ordered a full s7 than they cut down the order to a 13 eep final season
I think Following’s ratings will drop to a 2.5 before stabilizing. The main reason Alcatraz bombed is because of the Voice and it became formatic and predictable. TF’s unpredictablity has worked out to it’s advantage for now.
“Question for you Bill: If Fox orders a 22-episode season for a veteran show and that show then performs poorly, can they cut back the number of episodes?”
As noted by others, yes, but it’s quite rare.
Cancel The Cleveland Show and The Mindy Project. Renew the rest.
I believe The Mindy Project will be renewed and I hope for it. Incredible show.
Article @ TVGuide suggests an insider is giving Mindy a 75% chance of returning.
fyi & ymmv
If Touch rates poorly on Fridays I could see Fox placing Raising Hope and The Mindy Project in its time-slot next season.
Also, I am glad The Following is off to a good start. I hope it continues to rate well, so it can stick around.
The Following is a great show. Its intensity is almost equal to 24 and it deserves to be renewed. I hope TMP is gone after this TV season. Glee should be renewed and go back to Tues and NG should follopw it.
I hope The Following maintains its ratings. It is without a doubt the best new show of the season and it’s unlike anything else on TV now.
And now The Following is starting to dip…but unless it suffers a major Touch crash it’ll be fine.
Version 4.0 has begun: http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/12/09/play-the-elimination-game-page-2/160888/comment-page-54/#comments
Fox 2013-14 schedule
Mondays:
8:00 – Bones
9:00 – The Following (unless it doesn’t air until mid-season, if not, new drama)
Tuesdays
8:00 – Glee
9:00 – Raising Hope
9:30 – The Mindy Project
Wednesdays
8:00 – The X Factor / American Idol
Thursdays
8:00 – The X Factor / American Idol
9:00 – New Girl
9:30 – New Comedy
Friday
No idea
If Following gets renewed, it will only be for 15 episodes correct? I think I head somewhere that Kevin Bacon can’t do more than 15 and so Fox can’t give it a full 22 order.
With Kitchen Nightmares doing significantly worse than last season (from 1.54 demo through 12 episodes last season to 1.125 through 8 episodes this season) and Touch’s upcoming troubles, 2 hours on Friday on Fox are wide open next season.
Glee won’t go back to 8:00- it is too mature for the family hour.
I think Fox’s Friday problem is likely why we’ll see some veterans (like Raising Hope and The Mindy Project) stick around. I expect Fox’s 2013-2014 schedule to look something like…
MONDAY:
8:00 – Bones
9:00 – NEW DRAMA [The Following for midseason]
TUESDAY:
8:00 – Glee
9:00 – New Girl
9:30 – NEW COMEDY
WENDESDAY:
8:00 – The X Factor / American Idol
THURSDAY:
8:00 – The X Factor / American Idol
9:00 – NEW DRAMA
FRIDAY:
8:00 – Hell’s Kitchen / Kitchen Nightmares
9:00 – Raising Hope
9:30 – The Mindy Project
If Fox can even go 1/2 on dramas, they’ll have successfully filled a big hole in their schedule. But they’re facing issues with their only utility player (Bones) heading into the home stretch. They need a hit in the vein of House or 24 desperately.
@sky – As bill noted, Yes but if Fox has a veteran perform badly They usually just run the order out. Veterans 24, House, Prison Break, and Fringe all nicely had final seasons, Arrested Development had its order cut but its a show is owned by a company other than Fox like WB like Fringe its unlikely the eps can be cut. What show were you thinking? Fox currently has no bubble dramas. The Following will not be cancelled. Fox will salvage it and it builds on Bones while Alcatraz usually dropped from House and then dropped more when it was doubled and burned off.
Hopefully “The Following” will maintain these ratings