FOX: 'The Following' Now Certain To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 5th, 2013

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 3, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The Mob Doctor* canceled 0.31
Fringe* (F) final season complete 0.50
Ben And Kate* canceled 0.60
The Cleveland Show :cry: :cry: 0.62
The Mindy Project :| :| :| 0.77
Raising Hope :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.82
New Girl :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.07
Bones renewed 1.12
Glee :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
American Dad renewed 1.22
Bob's Burgers renewed 1.22
The Simpsons renewed 1.46
Family Guy renewed 1.60
The Following :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.60

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After the first three weeks of The Following ratings of 3.2, 3.3, 2.9 (preliminary, not in the calculation above) I'm elevating it to certain to be renewed.

Could it still take a dive, ala Alcatraz last spring, and be canceled? Of course. And if it does, I will move my prediction down, just like I did with Alcatraz. Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the Fox Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Nick

    What Fox should do for next season:

    Mon-
    8: Bones
    9: Gun Machine (new)/ Untitled Wyman/Abrams project (new)
     
    Tue-
    8: Raising Hope
    8:30: Live From Our Living Room (new)
    9: New Girl
    9:30: Wendy & Peter (new)

    Wed-
    8:  X Factor/ Idol

    Thu-
    8: The X Factor/ Idol
    9: Kitchen Nightmares/ The Following

    Fri-
    8: Glee
    9: Touch

    Sat-
    8: Fox Sports Saturday

    Sun-
    7: The OT/ Cops
    7:30: The OT/ Bob’s Burgers
    8: The Simpsons
    8:30: Bob’s Burgers/ Murder Police (new)
    9: Family Guy
    9:30: American Dad

    Midseason- The Cleveland Show, Dads (new)

  • Sky

    Thanks everyone for your answers. :)

    @Dan – I was thinking about Glee specifically, but it’s something I’ve been curious about, generally speaking. I think it’s safe to assume that Glee is getting a 5th season, as it’s still performing above average right now, but the ratings have continually declined over the last 2 seasons.

    So if Fox ordered a 22-episode 5th season, but then Glee had terrible ratings in the Fall, I was wondering if there was precedent for Fox to cut the order. Especially because Glee doesn’t have a ton of lead time in their production schedule (episode 4×13 airs this week, but I believe they are just starting filming for episode 4×16).

  • alexjones

    FOX must be in pretty bad shape is the following is tied for the highest rated show.

  • Dan S

    I agree with all the above assessments. I think TMP currently listed as a tossup will get a 13 episode renewal next season. It’s slowly building an audience & will likely stay paired with NG. TF will obviously be back & don’t expect a big ratings drop in the weeks ahead. Like RVN on NBC everyone keeps expecting the show to tank but it won’t.

  • jimmers

    Renew Mindy Project! :) Cancel l that HORRID show of Glee! Yes it gets ratings but blah blah blah. It is AWFUL!

  • Cammie

    Jimmers- Why the Glee hate? Bet you don’t even watch it. Fox isn’t going to cancel it- it get good ratings live and phenomenal ratings +3 and + 7. It’s not going anywhere.

  • Rebecca

    I hope Mindy makes it. Other than that the only FOX shows I still watch are BB, NG, and RH. I’m hoping BAK’s final episodes get posted on hulu some time if not aired in the summer.

  • Ultima

    @alexjones
    FOX must be in pretty bad shape is the following is tied for the highest rated show.

    What? It’s averaging a 3.1, better than every drama since 1 January except NCIS…

  • Juan

    The Following – is a great show, It so good I watch it twice. According the Kevin Bacons’ interview on the Howard Stern show, he is only doing 15 episodes, too bad. The reason is because he still wants the time to make movies. On a side note, too bad some of you missed the story about the Bacon’s sock on the fore mention interview.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    I wouldn’t be surprised if The Following drops a bit more, but my guess is it will stay north of 2.5 and get a second season for sure. I wouldn’t be surprised if it fluctuates a bit, too, between 2.5 and 3.0 depending on various episodes.

  • simsalabim

    It is the only good show on the major networks.

  • chris hughes

    Loved Alcatraz & The Awake With Jason Isaac-Both Were Cancelled-So You Never Know With These Companys Both Did Well-Just Have To Wait & C but putting it on skys Private Channel Not A Good Move By Them in The UK

  • mouzam

    following sucks ass, would like to have seen this tripe cancelled and something else given a shot next season!

  • ars041

    All the glee haters have probably never seen a single episode. How would yall feel if someone bashed your show? Thought so

  • Blackdeathteal

    As long as raising hope gets a fourth season im happy one of the few shows i can tolerate to watch atm

  • Ultima

    @chris hughes
    idiot gibberish

    Alcatraz and Awake did not do well.

  • Perdix

    @Bill

    Do you consider the number of Fox’s ordered pilots especially the comedy shows? They are unnaturally many.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Do you consider the number of Fox’s ordered pilots especially the comedy shows? They are unnaturally many.”

    No. There may be some correlation between pilots ordered and shows picked up for some networks, but I haven’t tracked that, and our predictions have been quite accurate without worrying about them.

    As a practical matter for Fox, with Bones renewed, Glee a certainty, and lets say The Following renewed too, they have one (or two if Mindy goes) sitcom spots open on Tuesday. And one (or two, assuming Touch folds) hour slots open combined on Monday & Friday. Then they probably factor in a certain level of failure, and add a couple more shows in the spring.

    More pilots just give Fox more of a selection of new options, they likely have little effect on renew/cancel decisions with existing shows.

  • steve

    @lucazzy yes kevin would only agree to do the show if it was agreed upon it’d be 15 episodes per season so id assumed if was to get a second season it’d be held of for mid season

  • Monday:
    8PM: Bones
    9PM: The Following

    Tuesday:
    8PM: Glee
    9PM: New Girl
    9:30PM: The Mindy Project

    Wednesday:
    8-10PM: The X-Factor

    Thursday:
    8PM: The X-Factor
    9PM: The Goodwin Games
    9:30PM: Raising Hope

    Friday:
    8PM: Touch
    9PM: Kitchen Nightmares

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