Bubble Watch: 'Community,' 'Smash,' and 'Touch' Return + 'Mindy Project' Upgraded

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

February 10th, 2013

Community returned higher to a 1.9 adults 18-49 rating at 8pm. I've got it "on the bubble" because there's only one data point. If Community stays in the ratings neighborhood it premiered in, it's a lock for renewal.

Smash's return wasn't as happy for NBC with its two-hour season premiere netting just a dismal 1.2 adults 18-49 rating, so dismal for a season premiere that even with only one data point I've got it as a likely cancellation. Consistency zealots who are Smash fans, feel free to wail "but Community only has one data point!"

In preliminary numbers, Touch returned to a 1.0 adults 18-49 rating in its two hour return. It started with a 1.1 in its first half hour and fell to a 0.8 adults 18-49 rating in its final half-hour.  I have it on the bubble for now, but though the ratings are similar to Fringe's, with only 26 episodes after this season, Touch will still be miles away from stripped (Mon-Fri) syndication. It's ratings may be similar to Fringe's, but it's in a different (some might say "sinking") boat.

I've probably been overly swayed by a twitter-feed full of TV media types, but my perception from reading them is that Mindy Kaling must be  the most lovable person in the history of the entire world and Fox will look for any reason to renew The Mindy Project. Is "it just posted its best 18-49 rating in four months" (with a 1.9) reason enough? Good enough for me to bump it up to a likely renewal.

Excluding Community, which is too soon to tell, I still have most of the low-rated NBC sitcoms (other than 1600 Penn which is a likely cancellation) on the bubble. Clearly they won't all be renewed, but looking ahead the picture is still cloudy. The return of The Voice might help clear the picture up but that return is still six weeks away and I doubt I'll wait that long to start downgrading.

Update: D'oh! My apologies to "Rules of Engagement" fans, I forgot to add "Rules" to the table or mention it. It's there now and it's "on the bubble"....

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Likely Cancellation
Deception NBC Likely Cancellation
Smash NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Cleveland Show, The Fox On The Bubble
Touch Fox On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Guys With Kids NBC On The Bubble
New Normal, The NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Following, The Fox Likely Renewal
Mindy Project, The Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Nashville ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Scandal ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Final SeasonFinished
Gossip Girl CW Final SeasonFinished
Fringe Fox Final SeasonFinished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

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  • Max

    LOL at REVENGE being in “likely renewal” as SCANDAL becomes a “certain renewal”

    You guys may have to bump REVENGE to on the bubble after tonight’s episode. Love it.

  • JAA

    Why is Nashville in Certain Renewal and Revenge in Likely Renewal?

  • Casey

    Mentions of Community, Touch and Smash but no mention of Rules of Engagement…which out-rated them all by a wide margin.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    Why is Nashville in Certain Renewal and Revenge in Likely Renewal?

    Short answer: Don’t worry about it, it’s not important (i.e., they’ll both be back)
    Still short answer: because I’m 99% sure Nashville is getting renewed and more like 95% with Revenge.

    I’ll spare you the full breadth of longer answer but it involves trends & 10pm generally being a tougher time period for the broadcast networks.

  • JAA

    Thanks Robert, I don’t watch any of those shows, I just thought it was strange since they’re both doing more or less the same in the demo.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    Mentions of Community, Touch and Smash but no mention of Rules of Engagement…which out-rated them all by a wide margin.

    A fair point, and I’ll certainly add it to the table. But FYI, in terms of traffic impact for TV by the Numbers it is “Community” (by a mile), then Smash, then Touch, then lots of other shows not named “Rules of Engagement.” We’d be fine if it wasn’t that way, but that’s the way it is.

  • Bob

    I hope that Guys with Kids is renewed and that Revenge does well tonight. I still blame ABC and their STUPID scheduling for the fall in ratings, but I do add that Revenge is not as good as last year but still that schedule crap that ABC gives to Revenge is just stupid.

  • Oliver

    @Robert Seidman
    But FYI, in terms of traffic impact for TV by the Numbers it is “Community” (by a mile
    Does that mean we can get “Community ratings” in the search box?

  • Allen

    I don’t see Community staying at a 1.9 the rest of the season, but if it can stay above a 1.5 I’ll be shocked if it isn’t renewed considering how bad Whitney, GWK and 1600 are doing.

  • One

    I can’t believe anyone returned to watch Smash. It deserves an 0.2…

  • Oliver

    (Community won’t stay at 1.9. It will drop to 1.2-1.4 which, considering its episode count and timeslot, probably justifies a renewal. But who the hell knows at NBC?)

  • Shanna

    Max, don’t you know when enough is enough…
    Leave Revenge alone… (and CF)

  • Ellen

    Networks need to stop with 2 hour premieres. People don’t like them.

  • halloween

    90210 still on the bubble? What will it take for it to be downgraded? Its current ratings are at Emily Owen MD levels

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    Does that mean we can get “Community ratings” in the search box?

    Ha. We’ll probably just stick with the empty search box going forward, but you never know…

  • Leondre

    If Revenge falls tonight, will you bump it down or will you wait until the competition is normal before making a decision?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “90210 still on the bubble? What will it take for it to be downgraded?”

    I’ll be moving my prediction to “likely canceled” on Tuesday.

    In other CW news, there’s a nice 3 way cage match setting up between Carrie Diaries, BATB & HOD. 3 shows enter, 2 shows leave!

  • Petar Ivanov

    Gift for touch fans. That show is DOA. Next episode will be 0.8 or 0.7. If fox air all episodes in may will be 0.5.

  • JulieDawn

    The Cancellation Bear is a big tease! He sent a tweet about the CW shows on the bubble watch, but must have eaten the references to it from Robert’s post. LOL

  • Max

    @Leondre

    Truth be told, non-hit REVENGE should have been downgraded already. But since we are entering that wonderful time of year where shows begin to slip as Spring approaches, it will eventually make its way on the bubble around these parts.

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