Community returned higher to a 1.9 adults 18-49 rating at 8pm. I've got it "on the bubble" because there's only one data point. If Community stays in the ratings neighborhood it premiered in, it's a lock for renewal.
Smash's return wasn't as happy for NBC with its two-hour season premiere netting just a dismal 1.2 adults 18-49 rating, so dismal for a season premiere that even with only one data point I've got it as a likely cancellation. Consistency zealots who are Smash fans, feel free to wail "but Community only has one data point!"
In preliminary numbers, Touch returned to a 1.0 adults 18-49 rating in its two hour return. It started with a 1.1 in its first half hour and fell to a 0.8 adults 18-49 rating in its final half-hour. I have it on the bubble for now, but though the ratings are similar to Fringe's, with only 26 episodes after this season, Touch will still be miles away from stripped (Mon-Fri) syndication. It's ratings may be similar to Fringe's, but it's in a different (some might say "sinking") boat.
I've probably been overly swayed by a twitter-feed full of TV media types, but my perception from reading them is that Mindy Kaling must be the most lovable person in the history of the entire world and Fox will look for any reason to renew The Mindy Project. Is "it just posted its best 18-49 rating in four months" (with a 1.9) reason enough? Good enough for me to bump it up to a likely renewal.
Excluding Community, which is too soon to tell, I still have most of the low-rated NBC sitcoms (other than 1600 Penn which is a likely cancellation) on the bubble. Clearly they won't all be renewed, but looking ahead the picture is still cloudy. The return of The Voice might help clear the picture up but that return is still six weeks away and I doubt I'll wait that long to start downgrading.
Update: D'oh! My apologies to "Rules of Engagement" fans, I forgot to add "Rules" to the table or mention it. It's there now and it's "on the bubble"....
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
| Show | Network | Status |
| 666 Park Avenue | ABC | Canceled |
| Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 | ABC | Canceled |
| Last Resort | ABC | Canceled |
| Made In Jersey | CBS | Canceled |
| Partners | CBS | Canceled |
| Emily Owens, M.D. | CW | Canceled |
| Ben And Kate | Fox | Canceled |
| The Mob Doctor | Fox | Canceled |
| Animal Practice | NBC | Canceled |
| Do No Harm | NBC | Canceled |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Happy Endings | ABC | Likely Cancellation |
| CSI: NY | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| Vegas | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| 1600 Penn | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Deception | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Smash | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Up All Night | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Last Man Standing | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Malibu Country | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Cleveland Show, The | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Touch | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Good Wife, The | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Mentalist, The | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Rules of Engagement | CBS | On The Bubble |
| 90210 | CW | On The Bubble |
| Carrie Diaries, The | CW | On The Bubble |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | On The Bubble |
| Nikita | CW | On The Bubble |
| Beauty And The Beast | CW | On The Bubble |
| COMMUNITY | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Go On | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Guys With Kids | NBC | On The Bubble |
| New Normal, The | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Whitney | NBC | On The Bubble |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Castle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Neighbors, The | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Revenge | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Suburgatory | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Elementary | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Following, The | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| Mindy Project, The | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Middle, The | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Modern Family | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Nashville | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Scandal | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| CSI | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Arrow | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Supernatural | CW | Certain Renewal |
| The Vampire Diaries | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Glee | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| New Girl | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Chicago Fire | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Grimm | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Parenthood | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Revolution | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Big Bang Theory, The | CBS | Renewed |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Renewed |
| NCIS | CBS | Renewed |
| American Dad | Fox | Renewed |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | Renewed |
| Bones | Fox | Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Renewed |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Private Practice | ABC | Final SeasonFinished |
| Gossip Girl | CW | Final SeasonFinished |
| Fringe | Fox | Final SeasonFinished |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Final Season Finished |
| The Office | NBC | Final Season |
--
LOL at REVENGE being in “likely renewal” as SCANDAL becomes a “certain renewal”
You guys may have to bump REVENGE to on the bubble after tonight’s episode. Love it.
Why is Nashville in Certain Renewal and Revenge in Likely Renewal?
Mentions of Community, Touch and Smash but no mention of Rules of Engagement…which out-rated them all by a wide margin.
Why is Nashville in Certain Renewal and Revenge in Likely Renewal?
Short answer: Don’t worry about it, it’s not important (i.e., they’ll both be back)
Still short answer: because I’m 99% sure Nashville is getting renewed and more like 95% with Revenge.
I’ll spare you the full breadth of longer answer but it involves trends & 10pm generally being a tougher time period for the broadcast networks.
Thanks Robert, I don’t watch any of those shows, I just thought it was strange since they’re both doing more or less the same in the demo.
Mentions of Community, Touch and Smash but no mention of Rules of Engagement…which out-rated them all by a wide margin.
A fair point, and I’ll certainly add it to the table. But FYI, in terms of traffic impact for TV by the Numbers it is “Community” (by a mile), then Smash, then Touch, then lots of other shows not named “Rules of Engagement.” We’d be fine if it wasn’t that way, but that’s the way it is.
I hope that Guys with Kids is renewed and that Revenge does well tonight. I still blame ABC and their STUPID scheduling for the fall in ratings, but I do add that Revenge is not as good as last year but still that schedule crap that ABC gives to Revenge is just stupid.
@Robert Seidman
But FYI, in terms of traffic impact for TV by the Numbers it is “Community” (by a mile
Does that mean we can get “Community ratings” in the search box?
I don’t see Community staying at a 1.9 the rest of the season, but if it can stay above a 1.5 I’ll be shocked if it isn’t renewed considering how bad Whitney, GWK and 1600 are doing.
I can’t believe anyone returned to watch Smash. It deserves an 0.2…
(Community won’t stay at 1.9. It will drop to 1.2-1.4 which, considering its episode count and timeslot, probably justifies a renewal. But who the hell knows at NBC?)
Max, don’t you know when enough is enough…
Leave Revenge alone… (and CF)
Networks need to stop with 2 hour premieres. People don’t like them.
90210 still on the bubble? What will it take for it to be downgraded? Its current ratings are at Emily Owen MD levels
Does that mean we can get “Community ratings” in the search box?
Ha. We’ll probably just stick with the empty search box going forward, but you never know…
If Revenge falls tonight, will you bump it down or will you wait until the competition is normal before making a decision?
“90210 still on the bubble? What will it take for it to be downgraded?”
I’ll be moving my prediction to “likely canceled” on Tuesday.
In other CW news, there’s a nice 3 way cage match setting up between Carrie Diaries, BATB & HOD. 3 shows enter, 2 shows leave!
Gift for touch fans. That show is DOA. Next episode will be 0.8 or 0.7. If fox air all episodes in may will be 0.5.
The Cancellation Bear is a big tease! He sent a tweet about the CW shows on the bubble watch, but must have eaten the references to it from Robert’s post. LOL
@Leondre
Truth be told, non-hit REVENGE should have been downgraded already. But since we are entering that wonderful time of year where shows begin to slip as Spring approaches, it will eventually make its way on the bubble around these parts.