Bubble Watch: 'Community,' 'Smash,' and 'Touch' Return + 'Mindy Project' Upgraded

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

February 10th, 2013

Community returned higher to a 1.9 adults 18-49 rating at 8pm. I've got it "on the bubble" because there's only one data point. If Community stays in the ratings neighborhood it premiered in, it's a lock for renewal.

Smash's return wasn't as happy for NBC with its two-hour season premiere netting just a dismal 1.2 adults 18-49 rating, so dismal for a season premiere that even with only one data point I've got it as a likely cancellation. Consistency zealots who are Smash fans, feel free to wail "but Community only has one data point!"

In preliminary numbers, Touch returned to a 1.0 adults 18-49 rating in its two hour return. It started with a 1.1 in its first half hour and fell to a 0.8 adults 18-49 rating in its final half-hour.  I have it on the bubble for now, but though the ratings are similar to Fringe's, with only 26 episodes after this season, Touch will still be miles away from stripped (Mon-Fri) syndication. It's ratings may be similar to Fringe's, but it's in a different (some might say "sinking") boat.

I've probably been overly swayed by a twitter-feed full of TV media types, but my perception from reading them is that Mindy Kaling must be  the most lovable person in the history of the entire world and Fox will look for any reason to renew The Mindy Project. Is "it just posted its best 18-49 rating in four months" (with a 1.9) reason enough? Good enough for me to bump it up to a likely renewal.

Excluding Community, which is too soon to tell, I still have most of the low-rated NBC sitcoms (other than 1600 Penn which is a likely cancellation) on the bubble. Clearly they won't all be renewed, but looking ahead the picture is still cloudy. The return of The Voice might help clear the picture up but that return is still six weeks away and I doubt I'll wait that long to start downgrading.

Update: D'oh! My apologies to "Rules of Engagement" fans, I forgot to add "Rules" to the table or mention it. It's there now and it's "on the bubble"....

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Likely Cancellation
Deception NBC Likely Cancellation
Smash NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Cleveland Show, The Fox On The Bubble
Touch Fox On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Guys With Kids NBC On The Bubble
New Normal, The NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Following, The Fox Likely Renewal
Mindy Project, The Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Nashville ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Scandal ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Final SeasonFinished
Gossip Girl CW Final SeasonFinished
Fringe Fox Final SeasonFinished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

--

 
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
  • Petar Ivanov

    nbc with most likely cancellation and on the bulble shows……again.

  • CBSviewer

    I really hope CSI: NY to be Renewed. It’s beating Blue Bloods, Vegas and The Good Wife.

  • rockyisgood

    I hope NBC/Sony considers bringing back Dan Harmon if it gets renewed next year. I mean, I know there is probably 0% chance that it will happen, but the show is going to suffer in the long run without his input in my opinion. You could tell a lot of the material was being forced this past week. It just didn’t feel like Community.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @Leondre: based on one night against the Grammy’s & the return of The Walking Dead, I won’t do anything. Between NFL playoffs/weeks off, etc., I think some anti-fans are looking for something to happen that isn’t likely to happen, but we’ll see in a few weeks…

  • Petar Ivanov

    One of the main leads on rules is already cast as main lead in cbs pilot.

  • Brandy

    I have a question:Smash has 18 episodes this season (according to tvseriesfinale) but theyres only 13 weeks about left in regular tv season so is Smash going to go until June or will they double up on episodes?

  • Michael

    Why isn’t ‘The Following’ “Likely Renewal?” With 3 data points that are >/+ 2.9 , I suspect that it is time for it to be upgraded.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    Why isn’t ‘The Following’ “Likely Renewal?” With 3 data points that are >/+ 2.9 , I suspect that it is time for it to be upgraded.

    It is “likely renewal.” I upgraded it after it’s second episode. Look for “Following, The” instead of “The Following.”

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I have a question:Smash has 18 episodes this season (according to tvseriesfinale) but theyres only 13 weeks about left in regular tv season so is Smash going to go until June or will they double up on episodes?”

    There are 16 Tuesdays remaining in the season.

    The premiere was 2 hours, that may count as 2 episodes, leaving 16 remaining.

    Or there could be a mistake somewhere.

  • Rebecca

    @Petar
    That won’t matter if Rules gets renewed…the actor has to stick with the first show he/she is under contract with (like the guy who played Coach in the New Girl pilot, how he had to go back to Happy Endings). I guess that person could quit, though, like Christina Applegate? And just suffer the contract consequences.

  • Rebecca

    @Bill
    Our elimination game (page 2) thread is locked now since it got to the 60-day limit. Could you please start another thread for the game players? A “page 3″? Thanks in advance.

  • zerg

    Suburgatory should be at certain renewal – The Cancellation Bear might agree

  • Niki

    I would also have a question.
    Did it already happen in the previous years that a show in your certain renewal list “surprisingly” got cancelled? What was/can be the reason of it? (so ratings dont drop, cast is up for a new season)

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “@Bill
    Our elimination game (page 2) thread is locked now since it got to the 60-day limit. Could you please start another thread for the game players? A “page 3?? Thanks in advance.”

    Done.

    http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2013/02/10/play-the-elimination-game-page-3/168989/

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Did it already happen in the previous years that a show in your certain renewal list “surprisingly” got cancelled? What was/can be the reason of it? (so ratings dont drop, cast is up for a new season)”

    Not sure about Robert’s predictions, but when that has happened for mine it’s typically been for an older show that has either grown too expensive, or the cast/crew wants to call it quits. And even so, I’ve typically had shows like that at “likely renewed” at this point in the season.

  • Nancy

    My anxieties about Mindy not being renewed are starting to subside with how well it’s been doing in the ratings lately. I wouldn’t be surprised if it reached New Girl ratings by the end of the season.

  • Tom

    The way ABC has spread out episodes of Revenge almost requires you to have a memory like an elephant to keep up with the plot. I get being off for a month over the holiday season. But it looks like they’re going to follow the same schedule as last season. So far, they’ve aired three episodes in January and it looks like the same for February. Then none in March, two in April and, finally, four in May. Revenge has a complicated serialized plot and constantly having to reconnect with the show makes the storyline hard to follow. They’d be better off either starting the show later or having one long hiatus in the middle with a recap show to catch everyone up.

  • Petar Ivanov

    @Rebecca
    yea but rules actors are out of contract after this season. My point was that if actors are already searching for new jobs may be they know something more. If more actors from that show are in pilots too its likely can. Look for the same sign with other shows/actors too.

    ps which show will take fox friday spot next – glee, bones or the following? I think glee but only if the following don’t collapse with the voice return.

  • Dan S

    Even though it’s only had 1 outing Touch should be likely cancellation. I can’t see it improving much on the 1.0 it got on Fri. Bring on the 24 movie when Touch does get eaten by the bear. I’d also upgrade P&R to certain renewal after scoring a season high on Thur. Has Elementary been downgraded ? I thought you had it at certain renewal. I may be wrong of course.

  • Big Toe

    Smash should be on the bubble

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures