Bubble Watch: 'Community,' 'Smash,' and 'Touch' Return + 'Mindy Project' Upgraded

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

February 10th, 2013

Community returned higher to a 1.9 adults 18-49 rating at 8pm. I've got it "on the bubble" because there's only one data point. If Community stays in the ratings neighborhood it premiered in, it's a lock for renewal.

Smash's return wasn't as happy for NBC with its two-hour season premiere netting just a dismal 1.2 adults 18-49 rating, so dismal for a season premiere that even with only one data point I've got it as a likely cancellation. Consistency zealots who are Smash fans, feel free to wail "but Community only has one data point!"

In preliminary numbers, Touch returned to a 1.0 adults 18-49 rating in its two hour return. It started with a 1.1 in its first half hour and fell to a 0.8 adults 18-49 rating in its final half-hour.  I have it on the bubble for now, but though the ratings are similar to Fringe's, with only 26 episodes after this season, Touch will still be miles away from stripped (Mon-Fri) syndication. It's ratings may be similar to Fringe's, but it's in a different (some might say "sinking") boat.

I've probably been overly swayed by a twitter-feed full of TV media types, but my perception from reading them is that Mindy Kaling must be  the most lovable person in the history of the entire world and Fox will look for any reason to renew The Mindy Project. Is "it just posted its best 18-49 rating in four months" (with a 1.9) reason enough? Good enough for me to bump it up to a likely renewal.

Excluding Community, which is too soon to tell, I still have most of the low-rated NBC sitcoms (other than 1600 Penn which is a likely cancellation) on the bubble. Clearly they won't all be renewed, but looking ahead the picture is still cloudy. The return of The Voice might help clear the picture up but that return is still six weeks away and I doubt I'll wait that long to start downgrading.

Update: D'oh! My apologies to "Rules of Engagement" fans, I forgot to add "Rules" to the table or mention it. It's there now and it's "on the bubble"....

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Likely Cancellation
Deception NBC Likely Cancellation
Smash NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Cleveland Show, The Fox On The Bubble
Touch Fox On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Guys With Kids NBC On The Bubble
New Normal, The NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Following, The Fox Likely Renewal
Mindy Project, The Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Nashville ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Scandal ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Final SeasonFinished
Gossip Girl CW Final SeasonFinished
Fringe Fox Final SeasonFinished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

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  • Big Toe

    Touch will get canceled at the end of the season. It’s in the worst timeslot. Plus, the show sucks anyway.

  • danny94

    I personally feel that you are being abit to optimistic about nashville, It’s latest episode hit a series low (1.7) And there is still 10 episode left to air, ratings usually go down in the spring but Nashville really cant afford to go any lower than it already has, I personally would have Nashville on the bubble as i think it could go either way.

  • jeeb

    @Max

    Did Revenge not call you back after your first date? What could possibly justify your hate for Revenge and several other shows for that matter. You’re borderline obsessed with Revenge.

  • Brandy

    Bill you’re right , according to FutonCritic, Smash has 16 episodes remaining so the premiere must’ve counted as two if theyres 16 Tues. left in the season.
    I don’t think 90210 should be downgraded as its been almost three weeks since a report came out saying CW would decide very soon & producers would be notified early if it was cancelled so they could use the last two episodes to create a series finale arc but there been nothing yet, I follow JL on social media and she’s said nothing about it being cancelled either.I think if an announcement dosent come this week ,it’ll be renewed.i heard last week they were filming episode 20 of 22& know from JL posting on social media in previousvseasons that they film the finale in beginning of March at the latest.

  • TerryJacksonNYC

    @Max

    It’s true that ratings are going to start slipping (especially in a few weeks when the clock “springs forward”), but they’re going to slip for all shows, so Revenge will likely stay right where it is. And even though its ratings are not what they once were, it will be back next year, hopefully with the story of The Initiative having wrapped, since nobody cares.

    I have a sense that everybody who wants Revenge to fail is part of the camp that just NEEDS Scandal to succeed. I agree that Scandal is the better show, but there is no reason for fans of these shows to be at each others’ throats. Both will be back, barring some combination of an unforeseen ratings juggernaut and a schedule change or two (or three).

  • PMR

    Does anyone else hate MAX? What a loser. Dude get a life. Both shows will be back. You’re like a broken record

  • Shepherd

    I think there’s still a good chance Touch will get downgraded this week, assuming some storm preemptions, but even if it holds steady, I still have it as LCanceled. Given that the ratings have fallen for nearly every 1/2 hour since its premier, I’m heavily leaning towards a CCancelation, but I’ll give it another week or two.

    I’m still keeping Revolution as a LRenewal until I see another data point, but assuming that it doesn’t return in the 1′s, I’d just be moving it up to CRenewal anyway. The mid-season finale just left a sour taste in my mouth.

    I suppose I’m also in the club keeping Nashville at likely rather than certain, but like Revolution, it really doesn’t matter much.

  • Gabe

    Guys, as others have said in the past, MAX is a member of the staff. There is absolutely no way he gets to post before everyone else every single time. When people noticed that, he was posting second every single time.

    Notice also how Robert and Bill respond to several other posters, but never to him. It’s beyond obvious and really annoying. Sure, you want traffic? Find another way than trolling your visitors.

  • Kevin

    I could be dreaming, but I wouldn’t be so quick to write off “Smash.” I think completing with “The Bachelor” split the playing field quite a bit. I think it could improve quite a bit when it settles into its time slot. However, I don’t expect another season.

  • Ccemerson

    I know in today’s world the rating of a new series will tell me if I want to sample/get invested in it. Such as Smash this week or Do No Harm canceled after two showings. Doesn’t PBS receive their Prime time numbers from Nielson just like the other big networks and they choose not to disclose their nightly numbers ?? So my question to Robert or Bill would it be wise for a third or fourth place network to take a break for say a year from releasing numbers and have their PR Dept. spin all kinds of promos as “Most Watched Premier episode of the season!!” /// “Fall in love w/Smash(for example) as all a America has”…..without providing the numbers behind their statements ?? Thanks

  • a p garcia

    I believe a poor lead-in and writing that could be better will be the end of SMASH and I think it would rate better if it were a dramedy.

  • TerryJacksonNYC

    @Gabe

    These guys are doing what anybody in any business does: they are pointing out that they have something that somebody wants. The names in the titles are chosen for the greatest number of hits. There is nothing unethical about it and the only trolling in regard to this topic is calling the moderators trolls. Bill and Robert may not always sugarcoat their answers, but they do at least a really good job of responding to comments directed at them. Since your comment was speaking about them in the third party, I do hope they ignore you, unless, of course, they have something to add, but I think the fact that they’re doing this to make money and not friends is enough for anybody to deal with. If you don’t like it, stop coming here.

  • brandon

    Im scared for HOD..

  • Nick

    My predictions:

    Last Man Standing: Renewed. This should be a likely remewal already.
    Malibu Country: I have no freaking clue.
    Cleveland Show, The: Cancelled
    Touch Fox: Cancelled
    Good Wife, The: Renewed
    Mentalist, The: Renewed
    Rules of Engagement: Too soon to tell
    90210: Cancelled
    Carrie Diaries, The: Too soon to tell
    Hart Of Dixie: Renewed
    Nikita: Renewed
    Beauty And The Beast: Renewed
    COMMUNITY: Renewed
    Go On: Renewed
    Guys With Kids: Cancelled
    New Normal, The: Renewed
    Whitney: Renewed as filler

  • TerryJacksonNYC

    @a p garcia

    Smash *is* a dramedy. It’s also a drama. And it’s also a comedy. I know these are three different categories, but part of the problem with the show has always been that it doesn’t know what it is. The drama is poorly written comedy and the comedy is poorly written drama. The dramedy is what they clearly wanted it to be, so the beats are there, but the fact that the show is always “stopped” by unnecessary numbers keeps them from being evident. (The dream sequence in the bar on last week’s episode was one of the most ridiculous uses of music in a show all year long, with the possible exception of “The Name Game” in American Horror Story.)

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Guys, as others have said in the past, MAX is a member of the staff. There is absolutely no way he gets to post before everyone else every single time. When people noticed that, he was posting second every single time.

    Notice also how Robert and Bill respond to several other posters, but never to him. It’s beyond obvious and really annoying. Sure, you want traffic? Find another way than trolling your visitors.”

    If I want to troll our more clueless/frantic/crazy commenters, there’s no need for a sock puppet. I do it directly.

    Like now. Clown.

    Robert’s play is just to ignore you. I try to have better things to do, but in your case I’ll make an exception.

    For those not as “clever” as Gabe, it’s far more efficient to generate pageviews with a trolly *post*, a comment does little for our traffic.

  • Max

    LOL @ me being either Robert or Bill.

    I don’t even think either of them likes me very much and the only reason I am not banned is because I don’t participate in sock puppetry, nor do I curse out or abuse other members. I state my thoughts (many of which have been proven right over time) and move on. It’s you guys who opt to respond to me and some of you go as far as to create fake “Max’s”

    Continue on…

  • Shepherd

    I, for one, enjoy MAX’s comments. LOL
    I just wish MAX would register an account and add a little picture so I can easily ignore all of the fake MAX comments. Of course they would probably still find a way to impersonate him.

  • joel

    Won’t Community be something like four episodes away from the syndication threshold, which in itself makes it a lock for at least a mini-renewal?

  • Roswell

    @bill why would you do that to 90210? It has been on for 5 seasons a final season is at least 75-80% guaranteed. You had gossip girl at likely renewal last season and its ratings were atrocious as well… I doubt tv cw will cancel it without ending properly not with their track record

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