Bubble Watch: 'Community,' 'Smash,' and 'Touch' Return + 'Mindy Project' Upgraded

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

February 10th, 2013

Community returned higher to a 1.9 adults 18-49 rating at 8pm. I've got it "on the bubble" because there's only one data point. If Community stays in the ratings neighborhood it premiered in, it's a lock for renewal.

Smash's return wasn't as happy for NBC with its two-hour season premiere netting just a dismal 1.2 adults 18-49 rating, so dismal for a season premiere that even with only one data point I've got it as a likely cancellation. Consistency zealots who are Smash fans, feel free to wail "but Community only has one data point!"

In preliminary numbers, Touch returned to a 1.0 adults 18-49 rating in its two hour return. It started with a 1.1 in its first half hour and fell to a 0.8 adults 18-49 rating in its final half-hour.  I have it on the bubble for now, but though the ratings are similar to Fringe's, with only 26 episodes after this season, Touch will still be miles away from stripped (Mon-Fri) syndication. It's ratings may be similar to Fringe's, but it's in a different (some might say "sinking") boat.

I've probably been overly swayed by a twitter-feed full of TV media types, but my perception from reading them is that Mindy Kaling must be  the most lovable person in the history of the entire world and Fox will look for any reason to renew The Mindy Project. Is "it just posted its best 18-49 rating in four months" (with a 1.9) reason enough? Good enough for me to bump it up to a likely renewal.

Excluding Community, which is too soon to tell, I still have most of the low-rated NBC sitcoms (other than 1600 Penn which is a likely cancellation) on the bubble. Clearly they won't all be renewed, but looking ahead the picture is still cloudy. The return of The Voice might help clear the picture up but that return is still six weeks away and I doubt I'll wait that long to start downgrading.

Update: D'oh! My apologies to "Rules of Engagement" fans, I forgot to add "Rules" to the table or mention it. It's there now and it's "on the bubble"....

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Likely Cancellation
Deception NBC Likely Cancellation
Smash NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Cleveland Show, The Fox On The Bubble
Touch Fox On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Guys With Kids NBC On The Bubble
New Normal, The NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Following, The Fox Likely Renewal
Mindy Project, The Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Nashville ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Scandal ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Final SeasonFinished
Gossip Girl CW Final SeasonFinished
Fringe Fox Final SeasonFinished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

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  • Brandy

    Dave, 90210 was filming episode 20 of 22 last week, that’s not a lot of time to wrap.Im sure the last two episodes have been written and are being prepped to shoot between now and early March when finales are filmed.If episode 22 ends on a cliffhanger, they’ll bring it back.OTHs season eight finale could’ve served nicely as a series finale and the cast wanted to move on, but CW brought it back.So they have 2-3 teen/girly shows next season, networks should have variety and diversity.People complain about Dawn going teen shows/girly shows all the time and in a couple years will complain about Pedowitz going all genre all the time”, especially when ratings for Arrow ,VD tank and with all the negative feedback about season three and four of VD and a lot of people have stopped watching and more say they will, I see a big decline for VD very soon.CW can’t afford to loose the audience that watches the teen/girly shows like HoD, CD,90210 ect so it would be wise to have shows like that on.

  • MichaelChickless

    Cancel:

    Happy Endings
    Vegas
    1600 Penn
    Deception
    Smash
    Up All Night
    Cleveland Show
    Good Wife
    90210
    Beauty And The Beast
    The New Normal
    The Neighbors
    The Mindy Project

  • rayslagles

    NBC President reveals why “Do No Harm” failure may force them to cancel more shows, here’s the link http://hollywoodandswine.com/snl-viewers-wonder-how-bad-the-sketches-were-that-didnt-make-it-on-the-air/

  • RG-X

    With only 2 episodes left of CSI NY – I hope they give it a good farewell and not some generic ending.

  • tv watcher

    I don’t really post on here just come on here to read comments and i have to say I love Max, I now just come on here to read his comments and watch everyone else get all riled up for his comments. Just an observation Max hates Revenge,and a bunch of other shows, he doesn’t really like Scandal, but enjoys pitting against Revenge fans because those fans are so fragile…it is quite entertaining…People should just ignore him and take his comments as just his opinions

  • RG-X

    …although probably not b/c they promoted it as one episode left before the season finale, not the series finale. BLAH!

  • RG-X

    Already this year: 10 shows cancelled and 5 more ending – 15 slots total to fill, not to mention the likely cancellations – that’s a lot of hours for the networks to cover.

  • Nick

    I want to say something about Body of Proof being renewed: Why would ABC even bother to renew it if it was going to be used as schedule spackle–effectively taking it off the air for 11 months ?

  • RG-X

    I predict to be cancelled:

    VEGAS
    NEW NORMAL
    HAPPY ENDINGS
    TOUCH – (although may ge to finish it’s season b/c it’s Sutherland)
    UP ALL NIGHT
    DECEPTION
    CSI NY
    WHITNEY

    I think Last Man will squeek by but MALIBU most likely to be cancelled.

  • hoki

    REVENGE SHOULD BE LIKELY CANCELLATION.

  • TerryJacksonNYC

    @Dan

    I remember the performance of Body of Proof as if it were yesterday. It performed horribly right out of the gate. It’s second season was assured and, when that was clear, I was fairly certain a third was. If this season’s ratings dot such the sh_t out of dead rats, there will be a fourth and maybe even a fifth, as long as they’re happy with airing the thing on Fridays. My bet is they will be.

    I sort of watched in horror as those weekly numbers came in. I knew all along that it was going to be renewed despite everything that we talk about here. It’s ratings weren’t what veteran shows like V or Brothers & Sisters managed to pull in during the same year, but those shows were pulled. I know there are people who believe the former was a “saving face renewal” and the latter probably got too expensive to produce, but these shows never dipped down to the numbers that Body of Proof got during its first season. And its second season wasn’t any better. (In fact, I think it did more poorly, but I was so irritated about it that I stopped following it.)

    There are always going to be shows that don’t follow the “rules” that we believe to be steadfast and true. One of the rules I’ve realized was that most shows that premier in the spring have a much higher chance of renewal than shows that premier in the fall, even if they have a much lower ratings average. This may have to do with any number of things, but my guess is that DST figures into it more than anything. One other major point is that shows that premier between February or April are usually anticipated by people in the business and the networks don’t want to pull them because so much was spent on advertising and getting the show going.

    At that point, canceling almost anything that premiers poorly (but not TOO poorly, like Do No Harm, for instance) might seem like it’s premature, so they give it another chance the following season, right along with the shows that were in development during the same time the decisions were being made. It’s cheaper to keep an iffy show on the air one more season than to produce another show entirely.

  • Zach

    @TerryJacksonNYC

    Body of Proof ratings were not horrible right out of the gate. It was the second highest rated premiere of the 2010-2011 season only beaten by Hawaii 5-0. It premiered to a 3.1. Hardly horrible.

  • TerryJacksonNYC

    @Zach

    I’m talking about the entire first season. No, the first episode did well, since ABC promoted the hell out of it. (There was barely a billboard or subway car in all of NYC that wasn’t plastered with the ads… and this was for MONTHS.)

    Body of Proof didn’t do badly “out of the gate.” Fine. I’ll bend to the nitpicking. But it did spiral very quickly. Its ratings were low enough as of the fifth or sixth episode to consider pulling it from the schedule. And it didn’t “rebound” until the end of the second season… not in any REAL measure.

    My point was the it got renewed over other, more reliable veterans simply because it was released in the spring and because they spent so much money on promoting it that it would be considered premature to cancel it.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    TerryJacksonNYC: “It’s cheaper to keep an iffy show on the air one more season than to produce another show entirely.”

    I tend to agree with you on that point. I’ve mentioned it before that it seems some networks do that to some extent. Network execs seem scared to invest in new shows these days, at least less than they used to.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Brandy: “especially when ratings for Arrow ,VD tank and with all the negative feedback about season three and four of VD and a lot of people have stopped watching and more say they will, I see a big decline for VD very soon…”

    LOL! We get it! You hate genre shows (especially Nikita) and love 90210 – which is now doing worse than Nikita! I already spotted that in an earlier post.

    However, your notion that TVD will tank anytime soon is probably ludicrous.

    And yes, the CW can afford to dump ALL the teen stroke shows, although I don’t expect them to. The teen stroke shows are what has brought the network to the brink of collapse, and only the genre shows are consistently out-performing them and have given the CW a change to survive.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Dan: “Networks renew shows all the time that are low rated without any justification.”

    No, they do not. “All the time” is a ridiculous over-statement. Last season only three shows were renewed that were unexpected based on the Renew/Cancel Index: Nikita, Fringe, and BoP. Everything else clearly adhered to the ratings.

    “I do agree it will probably flop but look at its competition.”

    It might win its time slot if the other shows are as bad as you claim but it won’t win the competition with other shows in its own network. If it’s too far below the average rating for shows on its network, it will be canceled – unless there’s some other factor involved. Syndication will not help since it’s way too far away from that.

    It’s doomed – unless the factor that got it renewed last season is still present. Again, it wasn’t syndication last season and it won’t be this season.

    Those who claim the show was renewed because it’s a spring show given a second chance might be right. I can’t think of any other reason, although the alleged California tax break might be conceivable. The combo of factors listed above might have given it another chance – but this new season it will drop further so I doubt even a combo of factors will save it.

  • Miranda

    I hope Whitney get renewed for another season as well as Guys With Kids that show is funny too.

  • Cindy

    For NBC I really hope Whitney get renewed I mean Guys With Kids is ok but Whitney should be renewed. COME ON WHITNEY!!!!!

  • MichaelChickless

    Why are none of my comments posting on any of the other threads? Am I being blocked for something?

  • Red Jane

    Mindy is awesome and it is getting better and better so I am calling it again – it is getting renewed!

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