Bubble Watch: 'Community,' 'Smash,' and 'Touch' Return + 'Mindy Project' Upgraded

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

February 10th, 2013

Community returned higher to a 1.9 adults 18-49 rating at 8pm. I've got it "on the bubble" because there's only one data point. If Community stays in the ratings neighborhood it premiered in, it's a lock for renewal.

Smash's return wasn't as happy for NBC with its two-hour season premiere netting just a dismal 1.2 adults 18-49 rating, so dismal for a season premiere that even with only one data point I've got it as a likely cancellation. Consistency zealots who are Smash fans, feel free to wail "but Community only has one data point!"

In preliminary numbers, Touch returned to a 1.0 adults 18-49 rating in its two hour return. It started with a 1.1 in its first half hour and fell to a 0.8 adults 18-49 rating in its final half-hour.  I have it on the bubble for now, but though the ratings are similar to Fringe's, with only 26 episodes after this season, Touch will still be miles away from stripped (Mon-Fri) syndication. It's ratings may be similar to Fringe's, but it's in a different (some might say "sinking") boat.

I've probably been overly swayed by a twitter-feed full of TV media types, but my perception from reading them is that Mindy Kaling must be  the most lovable person in the history of the entire world and Fox will look for any reason to renew The Mindy Project. Is "it just posted its best 18-49 rating in four months" (with a 1.9) reason enough? Good enough for me to bump it up to a likely renewal.

Excluding Community, which is too soon to tell, I still have most of the low-rated NBC sitcoms (other than 1600 Penn which is a likely cancellation) on the bubble. Clearly they won't all be renewed, but looking ahead the picture is still cloudy. The return of The Voice might help clear the picture up but that return is still six weeks away and I doubt I'll wait that long to start downgrading.

Update: D'oh! My apologies to "Rules of Engagement" fans, I forgot to add "Rules" to the table or mention it. It's there now and it's "on the bubble"....

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Likely Cancellation
Deception NBC Likely Cancellation
Smash NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Cleveland Show, The Fox On The Bubble
Touch Fox On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Guys With Kids NBC On The Bubble
New Normal, The NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Following, The Fox Likely Renewal
Mindy Project, The Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Nashville ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Scandal ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Final SeasonFinished
Gossip Girl CW Final SeasonFinished
Fringe Fox Final SeasonFinished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

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  • JacobYates

    @Dan
    If BOP’s ratings last year are any indication, it’ll be lucky to win its time slot. With the bachelor out of the way and BOP in that time slot instead, that leaves more viewers to go watch Smash or Vegas. BOP did pull decent ratings during its final episodes last year that may have merited renewal, but don’t expect that trend to stick. BOP might win its time slot for its premiere episode only. Then it will fall, as the law of post premiere drop dictates, and it will likely be Vegas winning the time slot, or some show that NBC replaces Smash with.

  • JacobYates

    Why are my comments not posting?

  • Stuart Ross (@WStuartross)

    I personally plan to catch up with Revenge for next week. Between football. Golden Globes and the Grammy’s I’ve been busy. Also it will probably have an academy awards ratings bump.

  • steve

    Renew:

    ABC

    Happy Endings

    NBC
    The New Normal

    CBS
    Rules of Engagement

  • Ben

    I totally agree with Steve: Renew Rules of Engagement. (I have not watched Happy Endings or The New Normal). Rules of Engagement is great show for the CBS Monday night comedy lineup from 8 to 10. CBS should give the program the respect it deserves and say it’s being renewed instead of treating it like the “ugly duckling” program of the network and only renewing it as an after thought. CBS should stop jerking the program around. They could do a lot worse than Rules of Engagement, for example: Partners or Made in Jersey.

    I also think CSI:NY might have another season left in it, especially after the crossover epsiode with CSI. That delivered decent ratings for the network on both nights.

  • DJ

    Why is Hawaii Five O only a likely renewal and a certainty? Isn’t the reason its so high to begin with on the odds is because of the syndication magic 88 objective, so then shouldn’t it be lock? Or are the ratings that bad that it might get to the point that CBS thinks they’re better of shelving it even with only 1 season left to get to the magical number? Thanks

  • Richard Steven Hack

    People whose comments are not posting – it’s the spam trap. It’s acting up in these threads with long posts, apparently. I’ve had repeated problems with it lately.

  • The Steve Sanders

    How is Whitney still on TV……

  • KathyNYC

    All I can say is YEA! for Parenthood. I would be devastated it if was not coming back.

  • Rocco

    I’d be curious as to the long answer why Nashville will be renewed. Personally, I think it is well worth the development time it might take for ABC to succeed with it. The cast is too good. The story is classic Dallas type soap set in the music business of Nashville. Country fans, if you can find them, tend to be very loyal. And I suspect they’re selling a significant amount of music on itunes.

    Part of the problem, I suspect, is that initially ABC was slow to make the music available, and there have been too many gaps in the episodes. Not good for a serialized show. But I’ve got my DVR set to record it and the Americans every week there’s a new episode. Of course 2 of my favorite shows would have to come on at the exact same time.

  • Karen Pac

    I am just waiting for the words “Malibu Country has been renewed” . I love this show and the cast. Love it!

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