ABC: 'Revenge,' 'Nashville' Downgraded To Likely Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Happy Endings :cry: :cry: 0.59
Private Practice* canceled 0.63
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.63
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.71
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.92
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.94
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.96
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.99
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.19
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.32
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.37
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.51
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.12

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Big ratings dips vs. special Sunday programming have lowered Revenge ratings to the point where I've lowered its current prognosis to "likely to be renewed". Nashville ratings have drifted lower to the point where it's also in the "likely" vs. certain range. In the final accounting, those are likely hairs being split. (I somewhat arbitrarily divide certain from likely at 1.0) I still expect both to be renewed, but with little other ABC news, split hairs I will!

I'm probably going to downgrade Happy Endings next week. I could have done it this week, but I didn't want it to have to share the headline.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Max

    Poor, poor REVENGE. LOL.

    … on the bubble here you come.

  • Carla

    lol! Max ^^

  • Skylar James

    The Neighbors really should be just a bubble show. It loses quite a bit of its audience from The Middle. It’ll probably be renewed and moved to Fridays

  • Common Anomaly

    How To Live With Your Parents (For the Rest of Your Life) is scheduled to premiere on Wednesday, April 3, 2013 but will ABC schedule a repeat episode of Modern Family as a lead-in? Based on ABC’s recent history of scheduling (last 2 seasons), it is a possibility.

    How To Live With Your Parents (For the Rest of Your Life) – 6 episodes will air, with 4 new episodes of Modern Family as a lead-in before ABC will have to decide if it should be renewed for 2013/2014 season.

    Mr. Sunshine – 02/09/11 – 04/06/11 – 9 episodes aired, but only 5 episodes had a new episode of Modern Family as a lead-in.

    Don’t Trust the B—- in Apt. 23 – 5 episodes aired before it was renewed on 05/11/12, with 4 new episodes of Modern Family as a lead-in.

  • Dref22

    Max is The Cancelation Bear.

  • chrisss

    I wouldn’t be surprised if The Neighbors is renewed simply because the only other comedy’s on the air produced by ABC Studios are Cougar Town, Malibu Country and (co produced with Sony) Happy Endings. Especially with the futures of Happy Endings and Malibu Country not looking great.

  • JacobYates

    Dang it Max! Get a hobby, a girlfriend, something! It’s not going on the bubble since last Weeks ratings were due to the grammy awards. Get it through your head!

  • Common Anomaly

    On January 10, 2013, at the TCA Press Tour, Paul Lee, President of ABC, stated “We still intend to keep [DWTS] going twice a year. “It’s still a big, broad, crowd pleaser. I think the All-Star version made it a little bit older. I think we have the ability of casting fresh and bringing in the younger audience again. We think there’s a lot of life in it. 16 million viewers is a lot of viewers.”

    Which do you believe will occur first?
    1. DWTS will follow in SYTYCD’s dance steps and eliminate the results show and reveal the results at the end of the once weekly two-hour episode.
    2. DWTS will follow in The Biggest Loser’s weight loss strategy and reduce to one cycle a year.

    DWTS
    Fall 2011 – Monday episodes – 3.28 avg. demo
    Fall 2011 – Tuesday episodes – 3.06 avg. demo

    Spring 2012 – Monday episodes – 2.98 avg. demo
    Spring 2012 – Tuesday episodes – 2.67 avg. demo

    Fall 2012 – Monday episodes – 2.26 avg. demo
    Fall 2012 – Tuesday episodes – 2.23 avg. demo

    So You Think You Can Dance
    Fall 2009 – Tuesday episodes – 2.29 avg. demo
    Fall 2009 – Wednesday episodes – 2.43 avg. demo

    Summer 2010 – Wednesday episodes – 2.37 avg. demo
    Summer 2010 – Thursday episodes – 2.43 avg. demo – 9 PM

    Summer 2011 – Wednesday episodes – 2.26 avg. demo
    Summer 2011 – Thursday episodes – 2.16 avg. demo

    Summer 2012 – Only one 2-hour episode each week – 1.97 avg. demo
    Separate result show was eliminated.

  • Ultima

    @Common Anomaly
    How To Live With Your Parents (For the Rest of Your Life) is scheduled to premiere on Wednesday, April 3, 2013 but will ABC schedule a repeat episode of Modern Family as a lead-in? Based on ABC’s recent history of scheduling (last 2 seasons), it is a possibility.

    There’s no way that conclusion is based on ABC’s recent scheduling history. Mr. Sunshine, Happy Endings and B- in 23 all had original Modern Family episodes as a lead-in for their premieres.

  • Justin121

    I knew this would happen since the sixth season of Desperate Housewives hit an all-time 3.3 series low, exactly three years ago in 2010.

    It just needed to happen to another show so it could go through ABC’s thick sculls:

    “Counter programming” female-skewing awards shows with female-skewing seriized dramas is idiotic.

    And before anyone says anything, no, you can’t say they did it once in 2005 so they could do it again.

    In 2005 Desperate Housewives was a mega-hit. A phenomenon. Later, it became a highly-rated show. Later, a well-rated show. It just couldn’t take it anymore.

    You can’t hope to sustain the same strategy with any show in the DVR age. Not even DH or TBBT.

    I think the cut-off for Revenge will be a 1.6 for the rest of the season.

    ABC won’t tolerate lower than that and they’re not in a position to demand higher than that. Welcome to the #4 World of NBC!

  • Dinaminjo

    ABC 2013/14:
    - 3 new drama, 3 new comedy
    - Zero Hour, Red Widow cancelled
    - Nashville, Revenge, Castle renewed
    - Neighbors or MC cancelled

    Monday: DWTS, New drama
    - using dwts while it still has a pulse

    Tuesday: Results, Modern Family, New comedy, Scandal
    - moving MF should move MF from the idol while winning over Fox (New Girl) and NBC (Go On), launch a new comedy and keep a solid intro for Scandal which should not need GA but could use a solid performer before it

    Wednesday: Middle, New comedy, Suburgatory, New comedy, Nashville
    - two new comedies launched by older ones and a drama unlikely but possible to go to s3+4 to fill in

    Thursday: Castle, Grey, New Drama
    - what?? Castle in the death slot?? Actually yes. Obviously nothing new is going to work here and other shows are either hits (Grey, OUAT, Scandal) or fighting for syndication (Revenge, Nashville). So a fan favorite with a solid fan base there to stabilize the night with a new drama at 10 to benefit from Grey’s possible final season.

    Friday: LMS, Neighburs (Malibu)
    - I would probably go with Neighbors but something tells me ABC is going to go with MC. Whatever.

    Sunday: Revenge, OUAT, New drama
    - Grey’s is a testament that successful dramas have ratings no matter the slot they are in. So switching the two should help Revenge without messing with OUAT. Also it adds some nice fuel to the new 10pm

  • Dan

    I still believe that Revenge along with Nashville will return. Revenge has a much better chance then Nashville but if both Zero Hour and Red Widow flop, ABC will bring these two back, to salvage the season.

  • A

    How smart is that when it was against a 40 million viewer football and 20(?) million Grammys.

    This week will be the judgement.

  • THE OLD MAN

    HE should have one frowny face by now I think

  • Brandy

    I hope Once & Nashville get renewed.

  • zerg

    After 6 years ABC have found 3 hit-high rated dramas and they didn’t protect 2 of them..(Scandal this season had a great writing and 0 competition)..

    OUAT and RV will be renewed anyway, but if they will not recover, abc will be tough to find something else that works on sunday..

  • Jenny

    @Dan

    Zero Hour & Red Widow both look like flops to me.

  • Honey Badger

    What The What ? If Nashvilleon ABC is Likely Renewal, then ABC is in big trouble. ABC is heading into NBC territory (NBC without “ The Voice “ and NBC NFL Sunday Night Football, most shows have low ratings).

    ABC renewing a Nashville when its last airing of a new show had a 1.7 18-49 rating, and has dropping ratings. Nashville should be Likely Cancellation; if ABC renews shows like Nashville then next year will be a disaster.

    10:00 CBS CSI 2.4/7 10.97
    NBC Chicago Fire 1.9/5 6.60
    ABC Nashville 1.7/5 5.30

  • Nik

    Zero Hour doesn’t look compelling at all. Haven’t heard many great things about it, either.

  • Common Anomaly

    @Ultima

    Modern Family – Season 2
    March 23, 2011 – Episode 18
    March 30, 2011 – Repeat
    April 6, 2011 – Repeat
    April 13, 2011 – Episode 19
    April 20, 2011 – Episode 20
    April 27, 2011 – Repeat
    May 4, 2011 – Episode 21
    May 11, 2011 – Episode 22
    May 18, 2011 – Episode 23
    May 25, 2011 – Episode 24

    Modern Family – Season 3
    March 14, 2012 – Episode 18
    March 21, 2012 – Repeat
    March 28, 2012 – Repeat
    April 4, 2012 – Repeat
    April 11, 2012 – Episode 19
    April 18, 2012 – Episode 20
    April 25, 2012 – Repeat
    May 2, 2012 – Episode 21
    May 9, 2012 – Episode 22
    May 16, 2012 – Episode 23
    May 23, 2012 – Episode 24

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