ABC: 'Revenge,' 'Nashville' Downgraded To Likely Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Happy Endings :cry: :cry: 0.59
Private Practice* canceled 0.63
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.63
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.71
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.92
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.94
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.96
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.99
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.19
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.32
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.37
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.51
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.12

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Big ratings dips vs. special Sunday programming have lowered Revenge ratings to the point where I've lowered its current prognosis to "likely to be renewed". Nashville ratings have drifted lower to the point where it's also in the "likely" vs. certain range. In the final accounting, those are likely hairs being split. (I somewhat arbitrarily divide certain from likely at 1.0) I still expect both to be renewed, but with little other ABC news, split hairs I will!

I'm probably going to downgrade Happy Endings next week. I could have done it this week, but I didn't want it to have to share the headline.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Rebecca

    I wish we knew if HE was coming back on the air or not…there’s no schedule info for it on futoncritic’s site beyond its last airing in January. Rooting for it, Neighbors, Middle, MF, OUAT and Castle. And I hope the rest of A23 is posted online soon. If HE doesn’t return, I hope their remaining episodes go online too. Same for 666PA.

  • Str8Shooter

    I used to LOVE Revenge last season. I thought it was fun, soapy and most importantly, had a clear-cut storyline which was very entertaining to follow. Sure, the acting was mostly hammy, but that was the point. Light and fun, no one was doing Masterpiece Theater for sure.

    However…this season it has become completely UNWATCHABLE! I have hung in there all season..it started out kind of slow, but it has gotten progressively worse each viewing. There are WAY too many characters (and very boring ones at that…especially the brothers who own that crummy bar) and so many plotlines, it is hard to follow who’s doing what to whom or why.

    And most importantly…its hard to CARE what happens to any of these people any more.

    Whomever the showrunner is on this program, WTF are you doing to what was once a fun show?

  • dref22

    @Str8Shooter, I couldn’t said it better myself. It was Dynasty v2, it was campy, ridiculous but also, LOADS of fun. Now it’s borefest.

  • atxcountry

    @Dinaminjo I see the logic in your schedule….however ABC is not moving Modern Family while it is still over twice the ratings of its programming addresses.

    One thing I cannot comprehend is why ABC is not testing Malibu Country with Nashville. They could form a symbiotic relationship as they speak to the same subsection of America. A Modern Family-MC-Nashville Wednesday or a Neighbors-MC-Nashville Tuesday after DWTS results would make sense.

  • atxcountry

    That would be averages not addresses.

  • Dinaminjo

    @atx I think LMS for a “traditional family” + Neighbors for a “wacky family” make a better duo. MC can’t even hold to LMS numbers which are not that great in the first place.

  • Common Anomaly

    Since Last Man Standing and Malibu Country do not have comparable Friday sitcoms or dramas to compare to on ABC, the following are prior seasons on ABC Friday’s:

    Supernanny – 14 episodes Friday 8 PM – 10/23/09 – 03/12/10 – 1.24 avg. demo
    Supernanny – 15 episodes Friday 8 PM – 11/05/10 – 03/18/11 – 1.09 avg. demo
    Shark Tank – 8 episodes Friday 8 PM – 03/25/11 – 05/13/11 – 1.2875 avg. demo
    Extreme Makeover: HE – 10 episodes – 10/21/11 – 01/13/12 – 1.13 avg. demo
    Shark Tank – 15 episodes at 8 PM – 01/20/12 – 05/18/12 – 1.61 avg. demo
    Shark Tank – 7 episodes at 8 PM – 09/14/12 – 10/26/12 – 1.76 avg. demo
    Shark Tank – 7 episodes at 9 PM – 11/02/12 – 02/08/13 – 1.97 avg. demo
    Last Man Standing – 12 episodes – 11/02/12 – 02/08/13 – 1.51 avg. demo
    Malibu Country – 12 episodes – 11/02/12 -02/08/13 – 1.46 avg. demo

    7 Repeats of Shark Tank on Friday from 11/23/12 – 01/25/13 – 1.41 avg. demo

    Primetime: What Would You Do?
    Friday 9 PM – 10/29/10 – 05/20/11 – 24 episodes – 1.45 avg. demo
    Friday 9 PM – 01/20/12 – 05/18/12 – 17 episodes – 1.43 avg. demo
    Friday 9 PM – 09/14/12 – 10/19/12 – 5 episodes – 1.50 avg. demo

  • Ultima

    @Common Anomaly
    dates

    That’s nice. The three previous midseason comedies to debut at 9:30pm all had a Modern Family original as a lead-in.

    You’re delusional if you think ABC is sitting there going “well, we have to premiere this out of a repeat because the past two seasons we aired a repeat on this week!”

  • jimmers

    Once Upon A Time…what is going on with this series? This season SUCKS! I’m hoping for the best for this. ABC is a hot mess!

  • TJ

    Perhaps some of these shows (Revenge? Nashville?) would do better if they kept their schedule! I understand there are other “events” like Super Bowl and Grammy awards, but I find it very irritating when I have to HUNT for new episodes, and when reruns or other shows air during their regular times, I lose track and sometimes miss the new episodes! Can’t help ratings.

  • Mary Ann

    So why would you downgrade the prognosis for “Revenge” on the basis of ratings vs. the Grammy’s? That makes no sense at all, since this is a one-shot deal, and you tend to delay changing the prognosis on shows for reasons that seem at least to me to be less significant than this.

  • Scandalfan

    LMAO Max you’re killing me. lol

  • Billy martins

    Here is what ABC Network needs to do is shuffle some of there shows around like revenge instead of keeping it on sundae they shall move it to Mondae”s at 10pm following Dancing with the stars at 8pm & move castle to sundae at 9pm following scandal at 10pm & Nashville moves to Thursday at 10pm Here is how they shecdule shall playout starting with
    Monday
    8pm Dancing with the stars
    9pm ~{Dancing with the stars}
    10pm~revenge{NewDay&Time}
    Tuesday
    8pm Dancing with the stars
    9pm {new}
    9:30pm{new}
    10pm {new}
    Wednesday
    8pm the middle
    8:30 the neighbours
    9:00pm Modern Family
    9:30pm {new}
    10pm {new}
    Thursday
    8pm {new}
    9pm Grey”s Anatomy {final season}
    10pm Nashville {newDay}
    Friday
    8pm TBA
    8:30pmTBA
    9pm shark tank
    10pm 20/20
    Sunday
    7pm AFHV”s {final season}
    8pm once upon a time
    9pm castle {new day&time}
    10pm scandal{newDay}
    {

  • Scandalfan

    No way they should move Scandal on Sundays at 10 to say the least.

  • Shepherd

    I totally agree with the Nashville downgrade, its about time. I agree with Revenge’s listing for the purposes of this index, but would still have it on the bubble as far as The Bubble watch is concerned. I know that’s not your decision Bill, just wanted to get that in though.

  • Dan

    @Jenny – Both shows are in the two worst slots for ABC, 10pm sunday and 8pm Thursday. They are likely dead by May.

  • Dan W

    Revenge will most certainly be renewed. I don’t know why people think it won’t because of a few weeks of not so stellar ratings. The show has lost steam and is not as good as it was last season, but I think the writers are getting back to creating episodes on par with the first season (I thought last Sunday’s was very much like a season 1 episode in terms of quality and story).

    I also think Nashville will be renewed especially if Red Widow and Zero Hour are flops (which I fully expect them to be). After the failures of Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue, ABC will most likely renew one new drama to save face and I fully expect that drama to be Nashville.

  • MichaelChickless

    I’ve given up on ABC. [except for DVRing LMS]

  • Scandalfan

    If Revenge can not pull at least a 2.0 for the remaining weeks, it is a goner and I’ll be very sad.

  • J.G.

    @Common Anomaly

    I’ll predict that DWTS will become Spring-only next season, with The Bachelorette possibly being pushed into the September-late November window DWTS usually goes in, leaving room to try something new on Tuesdays.

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