ABC: 'Revenge,' 'Nashville' Downgraded To Likely Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Happy Endings :cry: :cry: 0.59
Private Practice* canceled 0.63
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.63
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.71
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.92
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.94
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.96
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.99
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.19
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.32
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.37
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.51
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.12

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Big ratings dips vs. special Sunday programming have lowered Revenge ratings to the point where I've lowered its current prognosis to "likely to be renewed". Nashville ratings have drifted lower to the point where it's also in the "likely" vs. certain range. In the final accounting, those are likely hairs being split. (I somewhat arbitrarily divide certain from likely at 1.0) I still expect both to be renewed, but with little other ABC news, split hairs I will!

I'm probably going to downgrade Happy Endings next week. I could have done it this week, but I didn't want it to have to share the headline.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Bob

    ABC has turned out to be dumber than NBC which is incredible since NBC is the bottom on the barrel. How on Earth do that take decent rating show and destroy it is beyond me. Somebody must be on hard drugs over there in scheduling especially. Scandal and Revenge should be on the same day one after the other. They fit together and I love both of them. Thursday should be Grays, Scandal and then Revenge.

  • Fred

    @Mary Ann

    Ratings for Revenge have been dropping well before it went up against the Grammys.
    Such a shame because the latest episode (against the Grammys) was a pretty strong ep.

  • Eva

    Everybody I know, myself included, who were die-hard Revenge watchers last year are no longer very die-hard this year. In fact most of us barely even mention it. Once a serialized show loses momentum amongst even their already converted fan-base then they are in trouble. IMO, the ratings on the show are reflective of more than just stiff competition. They actually reflect the fact that the show isn’t deemed watchable anymore by a lot of people. And if people are complaining that it is bad rather than buzzing it up as must-see-tv, then it won’t lure old viewers back much less attract new viewers.

  • Ricky

    I would like for Revenge to be a massive flop so as to distract from any failures on the part of Zero Hour…but that’s most likely just wishful thinking.

    Rebooted: The Elimination Game. http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2013/02/10/play-the-elimination-game-page-3/168989/comment-page-3/#comment-1387409

  • omabin

    Fantasy Schedule for ABC:

    Sunday (Fall and Spring/ Winter)
    Once Upon a Time / Winter Wipeout
    DWTS / The Taste
    DWTS /Wife Swap

    Monday (Fall and Spring / Winter)
    DWTS Results Show / The Bachelor
    Revenge / The Bachelor
    New Female Skewing Drama / Body of Proof

    Tuesday
    Shield
    New Male Skewing Drama
    Castle

    Wednesday
    The Middle
    Suburgatory
    Modern Family
    New Comedy
    Nashville (I am 50-50 on this one, but 3 new dramas already, better keep this one if it does not tank in spring)

    Thursday
    Grey’s Anatomy
    Scandal
    New Female Skewing Drama

    Friday
    Shark Tank
    Last Man Standing
    Malibu Country/ The Neighbours
    20/20

  • KJ Styles

    @Bill- You could do a Zero Hour or Red Widow headline instead of Happy Endings. While I could see ABC cancelling it, I could also see TBS picking it up like it did Cougar Town.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Revenge may bounce back in upcoming episodes with no special events against it. There’s a major character death coming up, which I suspect will be Faux-Amanda, and then there will be the climb to the finale.

    However, this might be offset by the general spring downward effect on ratings. Or not. We’ll see.

    I think it’s almost certain to get another season – and if it does, it will get a fourth season. And I think the studio will try for syndication, so the network will get a good deal on season three and four, especially if they do some budget cutting by eliminating some of the rather excessive number of characters this season has had.

  • CoolRanchDoritos

    Revenge whats happening!!! I don’t like this, i need another season.

    Yay for Modern Family & The Middle.

    So over Scandal. I enjoyed it last season, now i just don’t care to keep up.

  • Bee

    what the heck? i’m truly dumbfounded by all the negative revenge talk on this website. unwatchable? oh please. unwatchable is stuff like smash and the pilot of the neighbors. revenge still is and always has been great. there were a couple of so-so episodes in the middle there, but even that’s been recovered from as this past sunday’s episode was one of the best, if not the actual best, of the season. next week’s looks great and i’m excited for the rest of the season. hopefully from march onwards, the ratings began to really rise again.

    also an interesting thing to note on this website is how much feedback coincides with ratings trends. when a show does well in the ratings, all the comments about its quality are positive. and when it does poorly, all the chatter is negative. rarely does the opposite happen.

  • Devin

    Sunday
    AFV
    Once Upon a Time
    SHIELD
    Revenge

    Monday
    DWTS/The Bachelor
    Nashville

    Tuesday
    DWTS Results
    Body of Proof
    Castle

    Wednesday
    The Middle
    How the Hell am I Normal
    Modern Family
    How to Live With Your Parents…
    The Returned

    Thursday
    Grey’s Anatomy
    Scandal
    West Side

    Friday
    Last Man Standing
    Malibu Country
    Suburgatory
    The Neighbors
    Influence

    The Bench
    20/20
    Wipeout
    The Taste
    A new drama or two
    A new comedy or two

  • The End

    @Eva

    Very well said there.

  • Craig

    Nashville had better be renewed. The best drama on network television.

  • Cass rowlwland

    Revenge is down because of the abc soap fan boycott for amc and oltl

  • brian I

    Thursday at 8:00 Wasn’t always the Death Spot. Ugly Betty worked there until ABC ruined it.

  • rob60990

    “Revenge is down because of the abc soap fan boycott for amc and oltl”

    Revenge premiered after the soaps were cancelled you twit.

  • The End

    @Cass rowlwland

    That’s one thing I love amongst many about fan boycotts of networks, the first being they don’t work, and the second being unless you have a Nielsen box, your viewing isn’t counted anyway.

    Basically they’re pointless in every imaginable way and no network takes them seriously.

  • Fred

    @Bee

    Not true.

    Many comments have been positvie about 666 Park Ave (including me) and that show was DOA.
    Same with Nashville, but obviously Nash is in a lot better shape than 666.
    Happy Endings gets tons of positive press here as well, but HE looks like its about to have a sad ending.

    The exception is the sinking Revenge. While it has been getting lots of backlash (mostly warranted) I think most true fans are willing to be patient. I’m gonna keep watching because I know it will improve. I’m already noticing positve signs.

  • Matthew

    As a Revenge fan, the first season was amazing but after season 2 episode 4, it got average. Sundays episodes was a return to form, hope the ratings do that aswell. AND GET RID OF AIDEN

  • forg

    I hope LMS stays for another season, while 1.5 is not stellar it’s quite decent for a Friday 8 PM show. ABC should have never moved it from Tuesday, it could have been their “The Middle” there

  • madbengalsfan85

    Moving Castle to Thursdays @8 would be a wise move. ABC seems to have trouble launching shows from that slot, perhaps sliding a veteran there would be wise. It’s a move FOX made with Bones and it seems to have worked out. Sure, Castle won’t win the night, but ABC won’t end up with egg on their faces either. This also frees up the post-DWTS slot for launching a new show.

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