ABC: 'Revenge,' 'Nashville' Downgraded To Likely Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Happy Endings :cry: :cry: 0.59
Private Practice* canceled 0.63
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.63
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.71
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.92
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.94
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.96
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.99
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.19
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.32
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.37
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.51
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.12

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Big ratings dips vs. special Sunday programming have lowered Revenge ratings to the point where I've lowered its current prognosis to "likely to be renewed". Nashville ratings have drifted lower to the point where it's also in the "likely" vs. certain range. In the final accounting, those are likely hairs being split. (I somewhat arbitrarily divide certain from likely at 1.0) I still expect both to be renewed, but with little other ABC news, split hairs I will!

I'm probably going to downgrade Happy Endings next week. I could have done it this week, but I didn't want it to have to share the headline.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Marco

    Revenge is a TOTALLY different show than it was last season. Do you remember the first 13-14 episodes of last season in which Emily always looked at a picture of many people (The Graysons and their friends and collegues) together on a beach? That pic was the epitome of her agenda: exact revenge from all the people who betrayed her father. And so each episode was centered on one of those people, Lydia, and Mason Threadwell, and so on. But screewriters couldn’t stick to that structure, you could not have 26 different fellows every season to exact revenge from (same problem of Alcatraz with the ex convicts). So they introduced parallel plotlines and new characters. But the formula – which viewers liked more – is not the same anymore (and that pic, the epitome of her agenda as I said above, vanished).
    That’s why IMHO Revenge is dropping. I was a fan, and I couldn’t wait for Sundays (mondays from me because I’m Italian, from Rome and I watch it via torrent), but it’s boring, boring, boring. And that’s why, according to me, ratings are spiraling down.

  • Dinaminjo

    What always amazes me is not matter how bad other shows are dropping, people focus on the worst..

    OUAT dropped from 3.1 average to 2.2.
    Revenge dropped from 2.4 average to 1.7-1.4

    Yes it is a huge drop.
    Yes Revenge doesn’t have a stable audience which will follow it blindly.
    Yes Revenge is not the mega hit it seemed to be.
    Yes it has a problem.

    But the drops of 30% across the night points out that you can’t single out Revenge and say it is to blame on its own.

  • The End

    @Dinaminjo

    I have Revenge down as my new dark horse candidate for cancelation if things don’t improve for it and soon. Which is ironic considering I was debating placements of this show with someone when all along this show is actually in trouble and may not make it back for a third season if things don’t improve for it.

    If the next episode doesn’t show some improvement, I would put it down as a bubble show personally. I’m sure the resident troll Max will love that, some people just can’t ignore him it seems, but none the less I’m expecting to see dozens of upset comments at Max next Monday when Sundays ratings get released and the miracle turn around for the show hasn’t occurred.

  • Lukes

    I don’t get the meaning of this phrase: “Big ratings dips vs. special Sunday programming have lowered Revenge ratings to the point where I’ve lowered its current prognosis to “likely to be renewed”.”

    Does it mean that the rating dips are bigger than expected (expected by the fact that Sundays had special programming in the past weeks)?
    I’m sure ABC expected a rating dip considering that Revenge faced to the “special Sunday programming”, didn’t it?

  • cass rowland

    i think revenge will do ok because when revenge was dropping so was once upon a time hopefully revenge will get renewed

  • Simon

    Good to see that even with those series lows, Once Upon A Time is still listed as ‘Certain to be Renewed’! Even at a 2.2 it isn’t in any real danger, it should bounce back this Sunday without the big competition its had for the past few episodes, plus its a pretty big episode next week as we find out who Gold’s son is.

  • spidermentalist

    I like Revenge, but I don’t know how far that story can go! Maybe, it’s time to end it with a monumental final, of course…

  • Unknown

    They need to renew Castle, It has great raitings after 5 years and it isn’t really dropping, Revenge should also be renewed!

  • Fred

    Revenge isn’t the only ABC show having a creative AND rating decline.
    Although not quite as serious or extreme, OUAT also has a number of issues:
    Not nearly as consistent as the first season. Although there were several standout eps this season (All that center on Rumpeltiltskin and/or Hook)) there were even more below par. Last season, most every ep was amazing with just a few filler eps.
    Too much focus this season on characters that aren’t compelling. Mulan was the dullest character EVER on OUAT. But on the plus side Hook is fantastic.
    Still like the show but not loving it like last season. Hope it can improve soon.

  • Poo

    ABC should so this next season

    Monday (new drama at 10 instead of Castle)
    8-DWTS/Bachelor/DWTS (keep the same since ratings are strong)
    10-NEW DRAMA (this key slot needs to launch a new show while DWTS is still strong)

    Tuesday (Tuesday night geta a bit of a makeover with Revenge at 10 and DWTS spin off with kids plus a new mf style comedy )
    8-DWTS/NEW SHOW-DANCING WITH THE KIDS/DWTS
    9-Last Man Standing/CONTINUATION OF DWTK/Last Man Standing
    9:30-NEW MODERN FAMILY STYLE COMEDY/How to Live With Your Parents
    10-Revenge

    Wednesday (still comedy night, but try to launch 2 new shows and move Scandal to this night so that a new drama can premiere on Thursdays at 10)
    8-The Middle
    8:30-The Neighbours/Family Tools
    9-Modern Family
    9:30-NEW COMEDY
    10-Scandal

    Thursday (try to improve the 8pm slot by moving OAAT, and bump Scandal to Wed for a new drama after Grey’s)
    8-Once Upon A Time
    9-Grey’s Anatomy
    10-NEW DRAMA

    Friday (no change)
    8-Nightline
    9-Shark Tank
    10-20/20

    Sunday (add a 1 hour comedy block plus 2 dramas on new days)
    7-AFHV
    8-Suburgatory
    8:30-Malibu Country
    9-Nashville
    10-Castle

  • Oliver

    ABC has announced Happy Endings is moving to Friday from March 29. A real burn-off.

  • Fred

    I’m pleased that ABC didn’t cancel HE yet. I realize there are a very limited amount of slots available so I guess it will do for now. HE didn’t work after MF Wed 9:30 or Tues 9:00 or Sunday 10:00. Friday at 8:00 is a family oriented slot so I don’t expect HE to perform much better here. But THANK YOU ABC for being so patient with my top sitcom choice this season!!
    Cougar Town and The Middle are close behind.

  • Rebecca

    I’m glad HE is returning. If I don’t get to watch it on Fridays I can at least stream the show on Saturdays or Sundays. If they don’t renew it I’ll just enjoy what’s left.

  • Elle

    My fantasy schedule:

    Sunday:
    8.00 Once Upon A Time
    9.00 S.H.I.E.L.D
    10.00 The Returned

    Monday:
    8.00 Dancing With The Stars/The Bachelor
    10.00 Castle

    Tuesday:
    8.00 Dancing With The Stars/The Taste
    9.00 Suburgatory
    9.30 How To Live With Your Parents
    10.00 Nashville

    Wednesday:
    8.00 The Middle
    8.30 Trophy Wife
    9.00 Modern Family
    9.30 Super Fun Night
    10.00 Venice

    Thursday:
    8.00 Grey’s Antomy
    9.00 Revenge
    10.00 Scandal

    Friday:
    8.00 Happy Endings
    8.30 The Neighbours
    9.00 shark Tank
    10.00 20/20

    Midseason: Betrayal, Gothica, Untitled Cullins comedy, How The Hell Am I Normal?

  • Jake

    People are crazy.

    Revenge, despite its ratings loss (and despite the pervasive belief that S2 quality has suffered), is in no danger of cancellation. None.

    Happy Endings is not likely to be saved by a cable network. Cougar Town’s unimpressive transition to TBS will surely make all cablers cautious about picking up network castaways. The potential saving grace, however, is that the network IS a fan of HE and will want to get it to syndication.

  • Fred

    @Jake

    Cougar Town is doing fine on TBS.
    Happy Endings would most likely do well paired with CT on TBS.

    In the past I rarely watched TBS. Now I’m watching CT and BBT on TBS.

  • Amy

    The last few episodes of Revenge have shown that it’s starting to return to its roots.

    What needs to happen:

    Aidan needs to leave ASAP. I don’t care about him and his backstory. The actor doesn’t have chemistry with Emily and is a bad actor.

    Ashley has no purpose on this show anymore so instead of trying to come up with ridiculous reasons to keep her on just write her out.

  • omabin

    Why do people insist on scheduling yet other serialized dramas on Sundays? DWTS is perfect for Sundays with its two cycles, it would avoid January and February events-heavy months all together. Winter Wipeout/ The Taste/ Celebrity Wife Swap or some other combination of cheap reality can fill in during those months just fine.

    Sunday (Fall and Spring/ Winter)
    OUAT/ Winter Wipeout
    DWTS/ The Taste
    DWTS/ Celebrity Wife Swap

    Monday (Fall and Spring/ Winter)
    DWTS Results / The Bachelor
    Revenge / The Bachelor
    New Female Skewing Drama / Body of Proof

    Tuesday
    Shield
    New Male Skewing Drama
    Castle

    Wednesday
    The Middle
    Suburgatory
    Modern Family
    New Comedy
    Nashville (give it a 13 ep season a la Scandal to see if it grows, if not replace it at midseason)

    Thursday
    Grey’s Anatomy
    Scandal
    New Female Skewing Drama

    Friday
    Shark Tank
    Last Man Standing
    Malibu Country or The Neighbours

    Thoughts? I think it is a consistent schedule. Promoting 4 new dramas is not very easy, I know, but they have done that 2 years ago and only Charlie Angel’s was not even sampled (and I think that can genuinely be attributed to lack of interest for a bad reboot show), not to mention they would only be promoting a new comedy in the midst of all this. Still, if this is a problem, just create a 4hour comedy block on Fridays with Neighbours and How to Live with Your Parents joining in, have Shark Tank at Tuesday at 8, with Shield and the New Male Skewing Drama following, and leave Castle where it is now instead of launching a new female skewing drama out of revenge. I don’t think this is preferable because I think fridays will be weaker like that, especially come spring, but it is an option…

  • Fred

    @omabin,

    I think its a sound schedule, but ABC needs to take more risks in order to get out of 4th place.

    Sun:
    AFHV 7-8
    OUAT 8-9
    SHIELD 9-10 (Might pair well with family oriented OUAT, also lots of fans of this genre, like me, couldn’t care less about the NFL and Award shows.
    NASHVILLE- 10:00 (Has the aura of a Sunday night show. Might do OK here)

    Mon:
    DWTS/BACHELOR 8-10 (Takes up lots of time, but very profitable for ABC)
    CASTLE- 10:00

    Tues:
    DWTS/BACHELOR 8-9 (If this second night of these shows fail, replace with SHARK TANK or THE TASTE.
    NEW DRAMA 9-10 (ABC should just give up on sitocms here for a while)
    BODY OF PROOF- 10:00 (If BOP fails this spring, then a new drama)

    Wednesday:
    THE MIDDLE 8-8:830
    SUBURGARTORY 8:30-9:00
    MODERN FAMILY 9- 9:30
    NEW SITCOM 9:30-10
    REVENGE 10:00 (back where it belongs)

    Thursday:
    GREY’S 8-9 (Would most likely do better than anything else here)
    SCANDAL 9-10 (No brainer)
    NEW DRAMA 10:00 (This new lineup will help build up the ENTIRE night)

    Friday:
    SHARK TANK/WIPEOUT
    PRIME TIME/THE TASTE
    20/20 (This entire low cost lineup is very profitable, as opposed to expensive first run sitcoms or dramas)

  • Fred

    @Amy,

    I agree the last few new Revege eps have been moving in the right direction.

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