ABC: 'Revenge,' 'Nashville' Downgraded To Likely Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Happy Endings :cry: :cry: 0.59
Private Practice* canceled 0.63
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.63
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.71
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.92
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.94
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.96
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.99
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.19
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.32
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.37
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.51
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.12

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Big ratings dips vs. special Sunday programming have lowered Revenge ratings to the point where I've lowered its current prognosis to "likely to be renewed". Nashville ratings have drifted lower to the point where it's also in the "likely" vs. certain range. In the final accounting, those are likely hairs being split. (I somewhat arbitrarily divide certain from likely at 1.0) I still expect both to be renewed, but with little other ABC news, split hairs I will!

I'm probably going to downgrade Happy Endings next week. I could have done it this week, but I didn't want it to have to share the headline.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Jim

    So, when you say that a show is certain to be renewed, what you really mean is that it’s certain to be renewed if nothing changes?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “So, when you say that a show is certain to be renewed, what you really mean is that it’s certain to be renewed if nothing changes?”

    Better way to think about my predictions is “What would happen if the season ended *today*”.

    Robert attempts to predict what the future ratings may hold in his “Bubble Watch” predictions. I do not.

  • omabin

    @Fred,

    I don’t understand the mixing up of female and male oriented shows like Shield and Nashville/OUAT on the same night. It makes no sense to e. For me, Shield warrants the creation of ABC’s own male night.

  • chrisss

    @ omabin

    Who says Shield is going to skew male? Most shows skew female…

  • HV

    Here is my prediction for 2013-14 on ABC.

    SUNDAY
    8:00 Once Upon a Time
    9:00 Revenge
    10:00 (NEW) Doubt

    MONDAY
    8:00 Dancing with the Stars/The Bachelor/Dancing with the Stars
    10:00 Castle

    TUESDAY
    8:00 Dancing with the Stars/The Taste/Dancing with the Stars
    9:00 How to Live with Your Parents (For the Rest of Your Life)/Splash
    9:30 Family Tools (canceled)/(NEW) Mixology/(Splash)
    10:00 Body of Proof

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 The Middle
    8:30 Suburgatory
    9:00 Modern Family
    9:30 (NEW) Spy
    10:00 Nashville

    THURSDAY
    8:00 (NEW) Shield
    9:00 Grey’s Anatomy
    10:00 Scandal

    FRIDAY
    8:00 Last Man Standing
    8:30 Malibu Country
    9:00 Primetime/Shark Tank/Nightline
    10:00 20/20

  • Nick

    Wow I forgot to post my sched this week. Here it is. What ABC should do for the 2013-2014 season:

    Mon-
    8: Dancing With the Stars/ The Bachelor
    10: Nashville

    Tue-
    8: Dancing With the Stars: Results/ Winter Wipeout
    9: Revenge
    10: Body of Proof

    Wed-
    8: The Middle
    8:30: Suburgatory
    9: Modern Family
    9:30: Knock Knock (new)
    10: Birthright (new)

    Thu-
    8: Grey’s Anatomy
    9: Scandal
    10: Rise & Fall (new)

    Fri-
    8: Last Man Standing
    8:30: Now What? (new)
    9: Shark Tank
    10: 20/20

    Sat- (midseason)
    8: Shark Tank (R)/ Winter Wipeout (R)
    9: Castle (R)
    10: Primetime: What Would You Do?

    Sun-
    7: AFHV
    8: Once Upon a Time
    9: SHEILD (new)
    10: Castle

    Midseason- Red Widow, How to Live With Your Parents (for the Rest of Your Life), Primetime: Nightline, The Taste, Celebrity Wife Swap

    MEGA CHANGE THIS WEEK: I’ve incorporated Scandal into my fall sched and bumped Revenge to Tuesdays. I’d like to know everyone’s opinion on whether Revenge should go on Tue with Scandal on Thu or switched around.
    Please note: Whichever show goes on Thursday would theoretically eventually become the night’s anchor after Grey’s makes its inevitable exit in a few years. The other show would possibly be a Tuesday anchor, but that’s not nearly as lucrative.

  • Nick

    What did I just start? Please Max don’t read my post above…

  • kates2424

    SAVE HAPPY ENDINGS!!!!!!!

  • omabin

    @Nick,

    I like your schedule for the most part, it was a bit non-sense not including Scandal before. I think ABC could benefit of having two strong young shows anchoring two different nights, so I would separate them. My problem with your schedule is 1)You put Shield in direct confrontation with the walking dead, which I view as a massive mistake as I imagine a much higher genre crossed-audience than with revenge-the walking dead, as both shows should appeal to genre fans, not to mention I think the show should go to a night of his own, a safe-heaven away from ABC heavy female nights and 2)You don’t adress the tremendous issue that is the DWTS decline, which suggests that it needs to be moved to a different day, scaled back to one cycle, cut in the number of hours or whatever.

    What do you think of mine? I have posted it before but here it goes again:

    DWTS is perfect for Sundays with its two cycles, it would avoid January and February events-heavy months all together. Winter Wipeout/ The Taste/ Celebrity Wife Swap or some other combination of cheap reality can fill in during those months just fine.

    Sunday (Fall and Spring/ Winter)
    OUAT/ Winter Wipeout
    DWTS/ The Taste [or other reality]
    DWTS/ Celebrity Wife Swap

    Monday (Fall and Spring/ Winter)
    DWTS Results / The Bachelor
    Revenge / The Bachelor
    New Female Skewing Drama / Body of Proof

    Tuesday
    Shield
    New Male Skewing Drama
    Castle

    Wednesday
    The Middle
    Suburgatory
    Modern Family
    New Comedy
    Nashville (give it a 13 ep season a la Scandal to see if it grows, if not replace it at midseason with a new show)

    Thursday
    Grey’s Anatomy
    Scandal
    New Female Skewing Drama

    Friday
    Shark Tank
    Last Man Standing
    Malibu Country or The Neighbours

    Thoughts? I think it is a consistent schedule. Promoting 4 new dramas is not very easy, I know, but they have done that 2 years ago and only Charlie Angel’s was not even sampled (and I think that can genuinely be attributed to lack of interest for a bad reboot show), not to mention they would only be promoting a new comedy in the midst of all this.
    In the end, I also have Scandal and Revenge anchoring two different nights, but I have Scandal doing it for Thursdays and Revenge for Mondays.

  • Nick

    @omabin

    My problem with your schedule is 1)You put Shield in direct confrontation with the walking dead, which I view as a massive mistake as I imagine a much higher genre crossed-audience than with revenge-the walking dead, as both shows should appeal to genre fans,

    I realize that. I have SHEILD starting very late (October 27) to minimize contact with TWD & Football.

    I think the show should go to a night of his own, a safe-heaven away from ABC heavy female nights

    I’m trying to make Sundays a genre night, one that appeals to both genders, becuase not all genre fans are male. That’s a stereotype. Will SHEILD skew more towards men than your average ABC soap? Of course, but that doesn’t mean it needs its own night of completely different programming.

    You don’t adress the tremendous issue that is the DWTS decline, which suggests that it needs to be moved to a different day, scaled back to one cycle, cut in the number of hours or whatever.

    That’s because I don’t view it as a tremendous issue. I fully expect DWTS to recover from the bomb that was All-Stars. This spring’s cycle should rise to the level that a little retooling can fix. If they don’t, then I’ll do something drastic.

    What do you think of mine?

    I have a bunch of things to say:
    –DWTS being at 9 pm Sunday and 8 pm Monday seems like a bad idea. There’s too much difference between the people watching at 10:30 pm Sunday and family hour on Monday to get a consistent, loyal audience in our time of DVR’s.
    –Body of Proof. If it’s getting renewed, it’s getting a full season. Are you planning for a 21 episode midseason season (the most it can get, since a 2-hr premiere is impossible with The Bachelor)?
    –Too much movement!! It’s enough to make anyone’s head spin. The promotion department over at ABC would go crazy. The only shows you have staying put are Modern Family, The Bachelor, The Middle, & OUAT!!!
    –Family comedies do terrible at 9:30 pm. Look what happened to Suburgatory. The Neighbors/Malibu Country would do terrible. I’d rather cancel both and premiere a more adult-oriented family comedy there.

  • Nick

    Ok, I want to clarify my Sunday sched so here is the breakdown:

    September 29 (Premiere Week):
    8: Dancing With The Stars 3-day premiere
    10: Castle season premiere

    October 6:
    8: Hallmark Hall of Fame movie (to make up for the one in the spring)
    10: Castle

    October 13:
    8: Once Upon a Time Recap
    9: The Making of SHEILD/other random special
    10: Castle

    October 20:
    8: Once Upon a Time season premiere
    10: Castle

    October 27:
    8: Once Upon a Time
    9: SHEILD premiere

    November 3–December 15, March 2–May 11:
    8: Once Upon a Time
    9: SHEILD
    10: Castle

    January–February:
    Random mix of specials, reality filler, and a HHOF movie. Recaps the week before the Oscars.

    May 18:
    8: Once Upon a Time season finale
    9: SHEILD season finale

    That gives Once, SHEILD and Castle exactly 22 episodes each, with zero repeats and off for the turbulent early fall & early winter.

    Any thoughts?

  • omabin

    @Nick,

    Nice points, I like to discuss this stuff (even though we know they will never actually do anything resembling our schedules ;). In regards to your schedule:
    – I think the whole skewing thing is always subjective and we never actually have access to the proper demo breakdown to be able to talk about this as factually as we would like. So it is all very hypothetical. This being said, I believe that Ouat, while appealing to some genre fans, skews mostly female and to family audiences, which I don’t see being interested, for the most part, in checking out something like Shield. The successful combo of Ouat and Revenge in the fall (I am ignoring the collpase in the winter here) goes to show that as well imo, seeing as Revenge is very female skewing. I understand your idea of wanting to create a genre night on Sundays, but I think Shield is the only true genre fan there and putting it against the walking dead is, in my opinion, even worse than putting it in the thursday at 8 deathslot. The audience is bound to have a tremendous crossover. Even if you start it late and minimize it, there is still going to be an impact, and serialized shows are not bound to take hits like that. So I really don’t like the idea of it on Sunday, especially when there is a completely empty night (Tuesdays) where ABC can use it to rebuild!
    – As for DWTS, fair enough. I guess we have different expectations. I think that the all star edition might have made matters worse, but its age, and, especially, the fact that it is now facing the voice basically all year, will continue the bleeding. I guess we are going to have to agree on disagree on this one until we have data points for the next season.
    – As for your sunday rotation schedule, I have no issue with it, except that, as I have just said, I disagree with Shield there, which makes the point mute.

    Regarding my schedule:
    – I don’t know why you say that those who would watch DWTS on Sundays wouldn’t watch the results show on Monday. Seems sort of out of the air to me. I think that only having the results show (per se already different from performances) facing the weakest hour of the voice which is the first on monday would be a very good thing, because I think the voice is the main cause of the acceleration in its bleeding. There is also no reality on sunday except for the very different the amazing rae and recent sunday airings of reality (the biggest looser, survivor) suggest it could do just fine in there. Also, most of the stuff on sunday skews male (at least more male than usual), such as TWD, football, animation domination, and DWTS is very female skewing, so it is perfect counter programming.
    – I take your point in regards to the excess of movement, but I note that most of it would be movements within the same night. Wednesdays would be the same as they are going to be by the end of this year, except for the new comedy at 9h30 and that is bound to happen. Both Grey’s and Scandal would be on Thursdays as well, would just move up an hour. As for your friday point, I am not so sure. I think that might be true but having shark tank as a lead-in would be a huge help IMO, and it would likely more than offset those losses. However, in favour of reducing the moves, I am letting them stay put, so fridays stay the same as usual. The big movements would be Sunday/Monday, while Tuesday simply has to be start from scratch, but I think that will always have to be done, regardless on what we rebuilt it with.
    – You make a strong point in regards to Body of Proof. I just think it would work really well paired with the bachelor for a 12 episode season airing without repeats at midseason. But I agree that if it survives this season they will try to get it to syndication as soon as possible. So I cut back on the new female skewing show on monday and let Castle stay there and let Bop have its tuesday slot, which also reduces the number of movements.

    This way, the only shows that I have moving to different days are DWTS and Revenge, in addition to the in-the-same-day movements of Grey’s Anatomy and Scandal.

    Revised Version:

    Sunday (Fall and Spring/ Winter)
    OUAT/ Winter Wipeout
    DWTS/ The Taste [or other reality]
    DWTS/ Celebrity Wife Swap

    Monday (Fall and Spring/ Winter)
    DWTS Results / The Bachelor
    Revenge / The Bachelor
    Castle [this spot can be used midseason to try a new show if no fall drama bombs, but most likely castle gets 24 episodes and saves a few for these weeks]

    Tuesday
    Shield
    New Male Skewing Drama
    Body of Proof

    Wednesday
    The Middle
    Suburgatory
    Modern Family
    New Comedy
    Nashville (give it a 13 ep season a la Scandal to see if it grows, if not replace it at midseason with a new show)

    Thursday
    Grey’s Anatomy
    Scandal
    New Female Skewing Drama

    Friday
    Last Man Standing
    Malibu Country or The Neighbours
    Shark Tank
    20/20

    Thoughts?

  • Nick

    @omabin

    I believe that Ouat, while appealing to some genre fans, skews mostly female and to family audiences, which I don’t see being interested, for the most part, in checking out something like Shield

    On the contrary, I think OUAT’s audience could be very into SHEILD. ABC’s president Paul Lee said he thought SHEILD was shaping up into a very family-friendly show. He even compared it to OUAT. If this is true, it also means it would be an OK counterprogramming for TWD, which is more adult, with lots of gory violence. Also, I don’t think OUAT is as female-skewed as you say, but that’s a matter of perception. There’s no facts to support it, unless you wan to go through ABC’s press releases (ugh).

    I don’t know why you say that those who would watch DWTS on Sundays wouldn’t watch the results show on Monday

    I just think the fact that it’s on at 2 different times would be confusing for the average viewer. Personally, I’d change Monday to:
    8: Castle
    9: DWTS Results/The Bachelor
    10: Revenge/The Bachelor
    But, for the sake of moving as little as possible, yours is good enough.

    Thoughts?

    I definitely like your schedule now, but for one thing: I’m not sure ABC has another new male-skewing show in development (Boy, I bet they wish they’d pushed Last Resort back a year).

  • Ben

    ABC desperately needs a strong new show this season.

  • omabin

    @Nick,

    Thanks for all the feedback! Well, I didn’t see those comments from Paul Lee. That certainly supports your argument of having Shield and Once Upon a Time joining forces on Sundays. However, I still say that Shield is needed elsewhere and that Sundays are bad for serialized dramas and good for more reality. But then we get into a matter of personal preference I guess. As for DWTS, this spring it will air (as it has done a lot of times in the past) at 8 on Mondays and at 9 on Tuesdays, so it airing at 9 on Sundays and at 8 on Mondays doesn’t seem like a big deal to me.

    As for the show to follow Shield, I agree with you, that would be the perfect spot for Last Resort. I was looking at ABC pilots and Big Thunder or Gothica seem to be okayish, what do you think? I don’t know many details, but from the description they sound compatible with Shield IMO. The only problem is that I am not sure how compatible those would be with Body of Proof, but its renewal is still hypothetical at this point, so I am not changing the schedule because of it. And even if it, indeed, warrants renewal, I don’t think it is that much of a big deal.

  • Charmed

    Going to miss Zero Hour, the pilot was great but I can’t help but think it should have been a movie.

  • omabin

    @Nick,

    Thanks for the link. In any case, I was not doubting you, I just didn’t remember it ;) Now that you have showed it to me, I actually remember seeing the article. Well, I get his point, but my position still stands that sunday is not the best day for it with all the male heavy shows lying around. And tuesdays is basically up for grabs at this point, so I say go heavy on that night.

  • Nick

    @omabin

    I was looking at ABC pilots and Big Thunder or Gothica seem to be okayish, what do you think? I don’t know many details, but from the description they sound compatible with Shield IMO

    They both definitely sound compatible. I’d go with Gothica because it looks like it has the most solid premise, and so the best chance of success. Big Thunder looks dumb and Reckless has been done before.

    The only problem is that I am not sure how compatible those would be with Body of Proof

    BOP was behind The River (The freaking River!!) and it didn’t even do that bad. I don’t think it really matters how compatible BOP is with its lead-in.

    my position still stands that sunday is not the best day for it with all the male heavy shows lying around. And tuesdays is basically up for grabs at this point, so I say go heavy on that night.

    On your schedule, Tues is definitely the best place. But since my opinion is that DWTS shouldn’t be moved, Tuesdays is not free and Sundays are. So we’ll have to agree to disagree.

  • omabin

    @Nick,

    Couldn’t agree more with you. We really have to agree to disagree. For the record, I think that either one of our schedules are better than ABC’s.

  • Annie

    I should have responded sooner…..if Revenge is cancelled I will stop believing in the brain power of the network suits. As long as the story doesn’t get ridiculous, it is such a good ‘escape’ show. It has become a never-to-be-missed show for most of my friends. Why don’t they ever cancel the really violent shows? I guess men love them.

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