ABC: 'Revenge,' 'Nashville' Downgraded To Likely Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Happy Endings :cry: :cry: 0.59
Private Practice* canceled 0.63
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.63
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.71
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.92
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.94
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.96
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.99
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.19
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.32
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.37
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.51
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.12

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Big ratings dips vs. special Sunday programming have lowered Revenge ratings to the point where I've lowered its current prognosis to "likely to be renewed". Nashville ratings have drifted lower to the point where it's also in the "likely" vs. certain range. In the final accounting, those are likely hairs being split. (I somewhat arbitrarily divide certain from likely at 1.0) I still expect both to be renewed, but with little other ABC news, split hairs I will!

I'm probably going to downgrade Happy Endings next week. I could have done it this week, but I didn't want it to have to share the headline.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Gus

    Revenge and Nashville shall be back. Revenge is losing a little speed on its’ fastball but it has its’ fans and Nashville is decent night time soap opera and a great primetime vehicle for the Country music industry. ABC should retool the Friday night lineup. What they have now (Last Man Standing and Malibu Country) isn’t working. The reality programming isn’t working either.

  • HV

    What do people think of my schedule (page 5, post 3)

  • Ben

    Good schedule for next year on ABC

    Monday
    8-DWTS/The Bachelor/DWTS
    10-NEW DRAMA

    8-DWTS results/Suburgatory (10 weeks/10 episodes)/DWTS results
    8:30-continuation of DWTS/Malibu Country (10 weeks/10 episodes)/continuation of DWTS
    9-Revenge
    10-NEW DRAMA/Body of Proof (starting January or March depending on how many episodes are ordered for the new drama)

    Wednesday
    8-The Middle
    8:30-The Neighbours
    9-Modern Family
    9:30-NEW COMEDY (18 episodes)/How to Live With Your Parents (10 episodes)
    10-Nashville

    Thursday
    8-Grey’s Anatomy
    9-NEW DRAMA
    10-Scandal

    Friday
    8-Last Man Standing (24 episodes)
    8:30-NEW COMEDY (13 episodes)/Family Tools (11 episodes)
    9- Shark Tank
    10-20/20

    Sunday
    7- AFHV
    8- Once Upon a Time
    9-Castle
    10-NEW DRAMA

    Thoughts?

  • HV

    Ben, I like your schedule. The only problem I have is between Dancing with the Stars seasons on Tuesday and 8:30 on Friday. I doubt they would put a comedy in at that time on Tuesday. For Friday at 8:30 I think that you should reverse Family Tools and that new comedy and change amounts of episodes, 8 or 9 of Family Tools and 13-18 episodes of the new comedy.

  • krktoday

    I think Revenge has gotten too complicated and far fetched to be believable. I know longer try to follow it.
    I love the storyline’s to Nashville but too much music. If a person doesn’t just love these singers the show is going to be to much.

  • Alan

    I hope Revenge goes up tonight. It has to!

  • omabin

    @Alan,

    For its stake (and ours that like it) it better go. I think it will do so, the question is more if it goes up enough to show that the last weeks against the big events can be recovered from or if it went to a lower range permanently.

  • Ben

    ABC schedule 2013-2013 television season updated.

    Monday
    8-DWTS/The Bachelor/DWTS
    10-NEW DRAMA

    8-DWTS/The Taste/DWTS
    9-Revenge
    10-NEW DRAMA/Body of Proof (18 or 13 episodes-starting in January or March depending on how well the new drama does and if more episodes are added to the order)

    Wednesday
    8-The Middle
    8:30-The Neighbours
    9-Modern Family (24 episodes)
    9:30-NEW COMEDY (18 episodes)/How to Live With Your Parents (8 episodes)
    10-Nashville

    Thursday
    8-Grey’s Anatomy
    9-NEW DRAMA
    10-Scandal

    Friday
    8-Last Man Standing (24 episodes)
    8:30-Family Tools (8 episodes)/NEW COMEDY (16 episodes)
    9-Shark Tank
    10-20/20

    Sunday
    7-AFHV
    8-Once Upon a Time
    9-NEW DRAMA
    10-Castle

    Malibu Country and Suburgatory are being held for summer or to replace a drama airing at 9 pm in case of a cancellation (Thursday or Sunday)
    4 New dramas, 2 New comedies

    Thoughts on the updated schedule?

  • Ben

    Note-NO NEW EPISODES FOR THE SUNDAY SHOWS FROM END OF JANUARY TO END OF FEBRUARY DUE TO SUPER BOWL, GRAMMYS AND OSCARS WHICH LOWER RATINGS

  • HV

    Ben, your updated schedule is great! I don’t see any real issues with it.

  • Tom

    @ Krktoday Are you sure “Revenge” is all that complicated or does it just seem that way because of all the interruptions? What I took away from last week’s discussion was that Revenge was frequently interrupted during January and February because of competing programs like the Pro Bowl, Superbowl, Oscars, etc. Revenge is heavily serialized and fragmenting episodes – particularly after its been off for the holidays – gives viewers too much time to forget details. One way to lose viewers is to make them constantly reconnect with a program. That applies somewhat to OUAT as well. Based on what I’ve read, it would seem sensible to move Revenge back to Wednesdays or some other weekday where it can air with fewer interruptions. Since Sundays are rapidly turning into the network version of ESPN, ABC would be better advised to counterprogram with procedurals. These are the junk food of network television and would give viewers a sense of immediate closure.

  • Ben

    @HV
    Thank you so much!

  • Dakota

    Prediction:

    Sunday
    Once Upon A Time
    Shield (new)
    Revenge

    Monday
    DWTS
    Nashville

    Tuesday
    Shark Tank
    Doubt (new)
    Castle

    Wednesday
    The Middle
    Trophy Wife (new)
    Modern Family
    Divorce: A Love Story (new)
    Westside (new)

    Thursday
    DWTS:Results
    Grey’s Anatomy
    Scandal

    Friday
    Last Man Standing
    Malibu Country
    Super Fun Night (new)
    Mixology (new)
    20/20

    Midseason:

    The Returned
    crazy Gene
    Spy
    Gothica
    Lucky 7
    Reckless

  • HV

    @Ben what are your thoughts on my schedule? (It’s on page 5.)

  • HV

    @Dakota Great schedule although I do not believe that ABC would move the DWTS results to Thursday or Shark Tank to Tuesday.

  • Ben

    @HV
    Great schedule. I think Thursdays and Wednesdays work very well, but I’m unsure about Tuesdays. I don’t know that comedies are good to air after DWTS, especially only sophomore comedies. Maybe swap the Tuesday comedy block for the Friday comedy block to help LMS and MC grow even more with DWTS before them. I am curious to know if The Neighbours is cancelled or held in case of cancellation on your schedule. I think that overall the placement of the new shows is great and the schedule is better than this year.

  • Mike

    Hoping that tonight’s “Revenge” will do well in the ratings. It was one of the best ever.

  • HV

    @ Ben I think that The Neighbors will be canceled at the end of this season. I’m surprised people watch it. I stuck around for 7 episodes, but then gave up. The only episode I thought was 7+/10 was the third episode.

  • Ben

    @HV
    I agree that it isn’t a very good show, but I would order maybe 13 episodes just in case of an unexpected cancellation and if it isn’t needed just burn it off in the summer. It still pulls decent ratings.

  • HV

    @Ben Yes, it does surprise me how good of ratings the show gets, but I’m not sure if ABC will renew it because I think that the only comedy that will most definately be canceled is Happy Endings, and ABC’s two new spring shows cover for that empty spot. They will need to cancel one more show, which, I believe, will be The Neighbors.

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