ABC: 'Revenge,' 'Nashville' Downgraded To Likely Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Happy Endings :cry: :cry: 0.59
Private Practice* canceled 0.63
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.63
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.71
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.92
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.94
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.96
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.99
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.19
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.32
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.37
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.51
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.12

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Big ratings dips vs. special Sunday programming have lowered Revenge ratings to the point where I've lowered its current prognosis to "likely to be renewed". Nashville ratings have drifted lower to the point where it's also in the "likely" vs. certain range. In the final accounting, those are likely hairs being split. (I somewhat arbitrarily divide certain from likely at 1.0) I still expect both to be renewed, but with little other ABC news, split hairs I will!

I'm probably going to downgrade Happy Endings next week. I could have done it this week, but I didn't want it to have to share the headline.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • HV

    What are your thoughts on this new schedule compared to the other one?

    SUNDAY
    8:00 Once Upon a Time
    9:00 Revenge
    10:00 (NEW) Doubt

    MONDAY
    8:00 Dancing with the Stars/The Bachelor/Dancing with the Stars
    10:00 Castle

    TUESDAY
    8:00 Dancing with the Stars/The Taste/Dancing with the Stars
    9:00 Suburgatory
    9:30 How to Live With Your Parents (For the Rest of Your Life)
    10:00 Body of Proof

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 The Middle
    8:30 Family Tools (canceled)/(NEW) Mixology
    9:00 Modern Family
    9:30 (NEW) Spy
    10:00 Nashville

    THURSDAY
    8:00 (NEW) Sheild
    9:00 Grey’s Anatomy
    10:00 Scandal

    FRIDAY
    8:00 Last Man Standing
    8:30 Malibu Country
    9:00 Primetime/Shark Tank/Nightline
    10:00 20/20

  • Ben

    @HV
    Better. I don’t see any noticeable problems

  • HV

    @Ben One big problem I realized with the other schedule is that I put “Family Tools” at 9:30, which totally would not be good.

  • HV

    Here is a premire calendar for my above schedule:

    Monday, September 9
    DWTS

    Tuesday, September 10
    DWTS

    Monday, September 16
    Castle

    Tuesday, September 17
    Suburgatory
    HTLWYP
    Body of Proof

    Wednesday, September 18
    The Middle (hour-long premire)
    Modern Family (hour-long or two episodes)

    Thursday, September 19
    Sheild
    Grey’s Anatomy
    Scandal

    Friday, September 20
    Primetime
    20/20

    Sunday, September 22
    Once Upon a Time
    Revenge

    Wednesday, September 25
    Family Tools
    Spy

    Sunday, September 29
    Doubt

    Friday, October 4
    Last Man Standing
    Malibu Country

  • HV

    Oops! I forgot Nashville. It should be under Wednesday, September 25

  • Sara

    @HV putting SHIELD on Thursday at 8pm is a death sentence. ABC should have learned from there colossal mistake with Last Resort.I really like the idea of DWTS results on Thursday.

  • HV

    @Sara
    I think that Sheild would go well there though. Here’s the thing, I’m trying to make there be as little change as possible. That would leave two open drama slots, Sun @ 10:00 and Thurs @ 8:00. No way Sheild is going in at 10:00. It seems like a great 8:00 show, and there are only two 8:00 drama slots, Sunday and Thursday. Sunday has Once Upon a Time. This puts Sheild on Thursday.

  • wallaby2012

    Zero Hour is just HORRIBLE. It was so very painful to make it through an hour of this show.

  • Paul

    Desperate Housewives should have been renewed for a final, ninth season. Even with it’s downward ratings trajectory and the cost of the show, it still made sense to have one more season. Last season’s ratings of DH were better than what we’re seeing now.

  • *S (@chanel_and_punk)

    I swear to god, If they cancel Nashville I will die.

  • Barbara Kane

    Please don’t cancel Nashville, it is the best show on tv!

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