CW: '90210' Now Likely To Be Canceled, So Much For Nostalgia

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
90210 :cry: :cry: 0.58
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.66
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.84
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.84
Beauty And The Beast :) :) :) :) 0.97
Supernatural renewed 1.35
Arrow renewed 1.49
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.86

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All season I've been writing that the only way 90210 gets renewed is for a nostalgic short final season. Now, I think its recent ratings slide has likely made that nostalgia too painful for the CW.

90210 relative ratings are much lower than other recent "nostalgia" final season shows. 90210 2013 ratings (not including last night) are currently at just 58% of the CW scripted show average. Compare that to Gossip Girl last spring (83%), and One Tree Hill the spring before (89%). Nostalgia's easier if you're not having to renew a complete ratings albatross, and gets even more painful if you have to cancel a show doing OK to get nostalgic. Nostalgia still could overwhelm ad revenue, but now I'm guessing it's not likely.

Did I jump the gun when I moved Beauty & The Beast to "likely renewed" last week after just 2 weeks of 0.7 ratings? The last episode's 0.6 rating suggests I may have. Stay tuned.

This is looking like an interesting spring for the Cancellation Bear and the CW. Once Cult premieres, the CW will likely cancel two of Beauty & The Beast, Cult, Hart Of Dixie, and The Carrie Diaries (in addition to 90210)  to make room for next season. Considering the level of crazy in some of those fan groups, the bear expects fireworks!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Dillan

    Renewed
    TCD
    HoD
    Nikita (full final season)

    Canceled
    90210 (it may got a short final season considering the final has apparently been written)
    BATB

  • Win

    So sad about 90210.

  • James

    Supernatural, Arrow and VD were all renewed yesterday.

  • Ames

    Come on Hart of Dixie!

  • Thiago

    Arrow, Supernatural and The Vampire Diaries are still “certain to be renewed”?

  • Just

    go Nikita!

  • JacobYates

    Too soon to say TCD is a renewal. BATB has a better chance right now since it has been on longer and maintained it’s ratings. TCD hasn’t been in long enough but if it stays at those ratings then it will be a bloodbath between TCD and BATB fans.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Supernatural, Arrow and VD were all renewed yesterday.”

    Spreadsheet update lag! Now fixed.

  • Dan

    I still think BATB is the new Secret Circle and if CW is bringing back 2 new dramas from this season, Arrow and maybe Carrie Diaries (which they will find some way to save) then BATB is gone. 90210’s numbers may be garbage but it’s CW, they will find some way to wrap this show up, maybe exactly like how Gossip Girl wrapped. Its isn’t difficult for a network to wrap up a show with 10-13 eps.

  • hammard

    Hart of Dixie I think will be saved for syndication purposes, just like Nikita was last year.
    Cult, I can’t see surviving. It’s been panned by critics and is airing in the Tuesday night deathslot with complete mismatch HoD.
    Nikita is pretty cert for syndication
    90210 I expect to be go.
    So that leaves B&TB and TCD to battle to the death. If B&TB can maintain the lead it has it may survive but all things remaining equal I see it being B&TB going as it has a better slot and they would need to launch a whole new monday otherwise.

  • Christina

    CW really dragged its feet with 90210. They should’ve made a decision on the 6th season a month ago. They can talk about closure all they want, but the fact that the finale has been rumored to be already been written and the way the numbers are slipping, I don’t know if anything good can come out of this. Fans probably won’t get a proper send off. You just can’t bring it back with these numbers.

  • Wright

    Cancel TCD and 90210. Renew Nikita, HOD and Cult. I don’t care either way about B&tB.

  • bryer

    TCD NEEDS to be renewed. it’s the only good show to watch on the CW.

  • AT

    Since Cult hasn’t premiered yet it’s hard to say. But it seems like it may do well because it’s similar to “The Following.” So right now my guess is that BATB and Cult will be renewed with Hart of Dixie and TCD getting cut. Hart of Dixie will probably sit at a .5/.6 for the rest of the season with the Carrie Diaries probably at a .6. If BATB can go back up to a .7 regularly then I really think they will get the renewal. And I really see that as a possibility with Edi Gathegi from Twilight and Sendhil Ramamurthy (from Heroes and Covert Affairs) joining the show soon. VERY smart casting choices.

  • dusti

    the carrie diaries is the cws only good show, like @bryer said. i love that boy he knows what he is saying about! he is so bootyfull just like tcd!! yay for vampires!

  • Justin

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see 90210 get closure in some fashion. Either a short final season, a summer run or an additional episode(s) order. The smarter choice would be additional or summer as these ratings do not justify a fall or midseason run. A cancellation would be justified and I would be happy for the spot to be given to a show that needs it.

    The CW’s pilot orders are very genre focused toward sci-fi and fantasy. The problem with that is that it wouldn’t smart to be geared to only one genre and lose everyone else. I think Hart of Dixie will renewed out of the bubble shows. Even though I don’t watch it, it seems to be doing well and could last for syndication. I expect it paired with Company Town next year.

    CD is up in the air; it could be renewed or cancelled. I really like the show and if it’s stable, it could be brought back and paired with The Selection or Oxygen. I wouldn’t be surprised if CD was paired with HOD as a midseason slot to be the next “Life Unexpected” situation. Though, with all things consider, the schedule for next year will determine its place and I wouldn’t be surprised if it was cancelled.

    Nikita is a lock regardless and it’s good (I’m catching up now in Season 2). BATB and Cult are the real toss-ups because Cult has yet to air and BATB has lead-in momentum from TVD. BATB could move to Fridays or take over a Tuesday spot (if HOD is moved to Mondays). Cult… I’m not really sure because it’s a high concept show and I think the story could be wrapped up in one season. I’ll check it out next week and judge it based on the pilot.

  • JJA

    renewed — Nikita and HOD

    too early to tell — TCD, B&TB and Cult

    canceled — 90210

  • Alan

    90210 is getting renewed. I heard the season finale is already written but not filmed yet, so I think they already renewed it but haven’t announced yet. I think the final fight will be between Cult, HoD, and TCD. Nikita is getting renewed (sadly!)

  • EatMorePez

    FYI, the Cult pilot is now up on Hulu.

  • THE OLD MAN

    90210 is a goner. TCD is starting to make me smile. Kinda rooting for it!

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