CW: '90210' Now Likely To Be Canceled, So Much For Nostalgia

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
90210 :cry: :cry: 0.58
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.66
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.84
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.84
Beauty And The Beast :) :) :) :) 0.97
Supernatural renewed 1.35
Arrow renewed 1.49
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.86

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All season I've been writing that the only way 90210 gets renewed is for a nostalgic short final season. Now, I think its recent ratings slide has likely made that nostalgia too painful for the CW.

90210 relative ratings are much lower than other recent "nostalgia" final season shows. 90210 2013 ratings (not including last night) are currently at just 58% of the CW scripted show average. Compare that to Gossip Girl last spring (83%), and One Tree Hill the spring before (89%). Nostalgia's easier if you're not having to renew a complete ratings albatross, and gets even more painful if you have to cancel a show doing OK to get nostalgic. Nostalgia still could overwhelm ad revenue, but now I'm guessing it's not likely.

Did I jump the gun when I moved Beauty & The Beast to "likely renewed" last week after just 2 weeks of 0.7 ratings? The last episode's 0.6 rating suggests I may have. Stay tuned.

This is looking like an interesting spring for the Cancellation Bear and the CW. Once Cult premieres, the CW will likely cancel two of Beauty & The Beast, Cult, Hart Of Dixie, and The Carrie Diaries (in addition to 90210)  to make room for next season. Considering the level of crazy in some of those fan groups, the bear expects fireworks!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Mark

    2013-2014 season:

    MONDAY:
    8pm – The Carrie Diaries
    9pm – THE HUNDRED

    Tuesday:
    8pm – OXYGEN
    9pm – Supernatural

    Wednesday:
    8pm – Arrow
    9pm – THE TOMORROW PEOPLE

    Thursday:
    8pm – The Vampire Diaries
    9pm – THE ORIGINALS

    Friday:
    8pm – Hart of Dixie
    9pm – Nikita

    Midseason:
    Cult(if its successful…if it isn’t then it will be moved to the cancelled pile)
    COMPANY TOWN

    Cancelled:
    90210
    Beauty and the Beast
    Emily Owens, M.D.

  • little_big_man

    3 shows already renewed
    3 news shows most likely to premiere in fall 2013

    -> 4 more shows will be renewed out of 90210, Nikita, The Carrie Diaries, Hart of Dixie, BatB and Cult

  • Charmed

    IMO Oxygen sounds a lot like Roswell.

  • halloween

    @Mark
    Highly unlikely that CW will launch more than 3 new shows in fall.
    they barely have enough money to promote 2 new shows while leaving one show to die on launch every year

  • little_big_man

    news = new

    (whatever happened to the edit button?)

  • Matty Dee

    It’s nice to see Nikita getting back up on the list. Guess the move to 8pm really did help, and if ratings continue to remain 0.4/0.5…

  • KT

    I hope HoD is renewed, but if the CW ships it to Friday, I will no longer be religiously watching it live like I have been since it premiered. I’m a 20-something and don’t sit around & watch TV on Friday nights..

  • Wright

    Oxygen sounds exactly like Roswell. I can’t wait. That was my favorite show.

  • Davis

    Hopefully this is the final nail in the coffin for 90210. Good riddance to such an embarrassment of a show. On that note, anyone who keeps saying “I think it’s a race among this, that and THE CARRIES DIARIES” has got to be joking! TCD does not have a fighting chance. Mark my words!

    The CW sank way too much money into advertising Carrie Diaries before it’s premiere. It’s critically panned and it’s ratings are no better than BATB or HART OF DIXIE- shows that get almost zero promotion from the network and probably cost a lot less to film. It’s basic economics of ANY business people. They made a huge investment, did not get anything close to the return they were expecting from that investment- end of story.

  • bryer

    when the Carrie Diaries is getting 0.6 with only 1.30 mil viewers, that’s pretty good for CW standards! renewal for sure.

  • little_big_man

    My guess:
    Nikita, The Carrie Diaries and Hart of Dixie get renewed
    90210 gets cancelled
    one out of Cult and BatB gets renewed the other one cancelled

  • Freyja

    Honestly, I think 90210 will get a short order season like GG and go out with 13 episodes, but that’s it.

    Nikita being on Friday will get renewed

    As for the rest it really depends on their pilots and how they turn out, and nothing they have sounds the least bit interesting this time around. At least IMO

    I hope the Cult does well when it premieres, whenever that is.

  • Charmed

    @Davis, You were under that rock for way too long… B&TB is on after TVD, the most watched show on the network, and gets the same ratings as TCD, and half of TVD ratings, and I’m sure it would cost more to film B&TB than TCD.

  • Charmed

    I don’t like that all of the pilots are sci-fi, I prefer the TCD and HOD type shows.

  • Dan

    @Charmed – Exactly which is why BATB has no chance while CD has at least a little. HOD was renewed last season not because it was rated higher than Secret Circle but because SC was more expensive and couldnt hold on to as much of VD as CW had hoped. And Beauty and the Beast doesn’t retain as much as SC did. With The Originals likely airing 9:00 behind Vampire Diaries it seems that there wouldn’t be another slot to air BATB.

    CW not being predictable may result in a number of firsts for them. If they renew BATB then it would be the first time that 2 new fall dramas got a second season since Gossip Girl and Reaper back in 2008. If they cancel 90210 it would be the first time a veteran didn’t get a wrap up season. If they cancel Nikita or Hart of Dixie it would be the first time CW axed a show after 3 full seasons or 2. I think syndication Gods are a bit stronger (If CW is willing to put up with a show for 2 or 3 full seasons they’d be willing to go for 4).

    While it seems possible anyone of these scenarios is likely, I’m still going with CW being CW and predictably giving 90210 a final season, renewing HOD and Nikita and axing BATB.

  • little_big_man

    @Charmed:
    Isn’t that a little ironic given your nickname? ;)

  • Charmed

    @little_big_man, Haha, but Charmed is like a mix of both, it has fun parts and I would say its more like HOD than serious sci-fi shows like Arrow and Revolution.

  • beastie

    i think B&TB should be renewed. the ratings will go higher, i have a strong feeling.

  • lalinge

    i think B&TB should be renewed. the rating will go higher, i have a strong feeling about that.

  • len90

    I don’t know why people keep saying that 90210 will be renewed to “wrap it up”, “a season finale has been written” and “to not to upset the fans”.

    Are these people aware of the fact that 90210 brought 0.69 million viewers and a 0.3 rating in the target audience??? I don’t think that after seeing this number anyone at TheCW would give a flying **** to upset such a few people. The cancelation of either The Carrie Diaries or Hart of Dixie would upset 1.50 million people each, not to mention Beauty & the Beast at about 2.0 million. And I cannot imagine that any company would pay serious money to air their commercials during 90210 the next fall…

    And about the already completed season finale script. Gilmore Girls’ final episode was written and shot BEFORE the cancelation was announced and it was in it’s 7th season and was the one of the leading program in 18-49 for the network!!! We are talking about business here when something is not profitable anymore (the cast of GG was going for a salary raise and now 90210 ratings are terrible) no network would care how it ends, the just want it off of their backs…

    And the race between HoD and TCD, I may have something to do with the fact that I watch TCD and not HoD, but if it was my decision I would much rather give TCD another chance. Hart of Dixie was previously lead-in by then more powerfull shows (GossipGirl) and has moved nights, if it did not help the ratings, nothing will. I think it’s too early to talk about sydnication purposes, since this show would need 2 more seasons to be able to sold for cable sydnication. And when the numbers are just about decent, I don’t think it’s worth to take a risk and push it for 2 more seasons, because if it falls just slightly it will be just another 90210 kind of pain in the CW’s backside. TCD an the other hand had a rough start, dedicated S&tC fans wnet hard on it, they didn’t even want it to premier, yet it met OK numbers and as it turned out to be actually quite an enjoyable show it grew in 18-49 and then stayed stable. If the pair it up next fall with a better show, the 2 can make a good night for TheCW and actually more people can get sucked in, because fall premieres and always better than winter ones…

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