CW: '90210' Now Likely To Be Canceled, So Much For Nostalgia

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
90210 :cry: :cry: 0.58
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.66
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.84
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.84
Beauty And The Beast :) :) :) :) 0.97
Supernatural renewed 1.35
Arrow renewed 1.49
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.86

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All season I've been writing that the only way 90210 gets renewed is for a nostalgic short final season. Now, I think its recent ratings slide has likely made that nostalgia too painful for the CW.

90210 relative ratings are much lower than other recent "nostalgia" final season shows. 90210 2013 ratings (not including last night) are currently at just 58% of the CW scripted show average. Compare that to Gossip Girl last spring (83%), and One Tree Hill the spring before (89%). Nostalgia's easier if you're not having to renew a complete ratings albatross, and gets even more painful if you have to cancel a show doing OK to get nostalgic. Nostalgia still could overwhelm ad revenue, but now I'm guessing it's not likely.

Did I jump the gun when I moved Beauty & The Beast to "likely renewed" last week after just 2 weeks of 0.7 ratings? The last episode's 0.6 rating suggests I may have. Stay tuned.

This is looking like an interesting spring for the Cancellation Bear and the CW. Once Cult premieres, the CW will likely cancel two of Beauty & The Beast, Cult, Hart Of Dixie, and The Carrie Diaries (in addition to 90210)  to make room for next season. Considering the level of crazy in some of those fan groups, the bear expects fireworks!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • MichaelChickless

    Cancel:

    90210
    Beauty And The Beast

  • Win

    @ Len90
    HoD grew out of it’s lead in Gossip girl last year consistently. Gossip girl was on a major slip and slide last year as well. This year it had no lead in and still remains consistent. TCD in it’s first season is pulling the same numbers as Hod in it’s 2nd.

    What sense would it make to cancel the show with the stable rating equal to the fresh 13 episode, farther from syndication Carrie diaries?

    This is the same that can be said for BatB. Another show performing slightly above HoD despite having the strongest lead in the CW can provide.

    In the end there is no battle. HoD is cheap, closer to syndication and stable. Has Nikita taught anyone here nothing? If anything HoD ends up on Friday for it’s fianl season following Nikita’s exit after it’s 4th season.

    Hod :44 episodes to syndication avg 0.54
    BatB: 66 episodes to syndication avg 0.68
    TCD: 75 episodes to syndication avg 0.56

  • CBSviewer

    I think HoD is safe. If The CW stops airing in 2016 HoD is the last Show with a possible syndication deal.
    Beauty and the the Beast and Nikita will be Renewed.
    90210 canceled (to weak to get a final season).

  • Win

    Correction
    Hod :44 episodes to syndication avg 0.56
    BatB: 66 episodes to syndication avg 0.68
    TCD: 75 episodes to syndication avg 0.58

  • Dave

    If it’s between Hart and Carrie, I choose Carrie. The show has grown on me a bit and I’ve never seen a single episode of Dixie so I want Carrie to survive.

    Nikita is safe :D

    I think it’s between Beauty and Cult and I honestly hope Beauty makes it.

    And I stopped watching 90210 so I hope CW is smart to kill it this season.

    So for me renewed:
    Nikita
    Carrie
    Beauty

    Cancelled:
    Dixie
    90210
    Gossip
    Owens MD
    Cult

  • Anon

    Come September, the only pop culture usage of “Blue Bell” will be in reference to the creamery Southerners know and love.

  • Lara

    Mark my words, 90210 will be renewed for a final season in the Fall regardless of how low it falls.

  • Josh

    Anybody think the selection will be good? If I’m not mistaken I think mark Schwann created it and he made OTH so…what does everyone else think?

  • freya

    Dan and Charmed PLEASE GIVE IT UP THE 90210 IS A WASTE OF SPACE THE RATING IS NOT GONNA GO UP. IF YOU TWO ARE WILLING TO PERSONALLY PAY THE AIRTIME SPACE GOOD IF NOT THEN JUST GIVE IT UP

  • Dan W

    Not to be rude, but I am dying at the fans that think Nikita will get renewed for a 5th season! The ratings are not good, even for a Friday. You guys should be thankful you are even getting a 4th season and that you got a 3rd season for that matter. I would have canceled it after it continued to sink lower in the ratings during season 2.

    90210 will be wrapped up in some fashion whether it be a shortened season, a midseason replacement, a summer run, or even an additional 2-5 episodes this season or a special next season. Just because it hit a 0.3 last night doesn’t mean anything…there are still DVD/itunes sales, syndication, etc. to think about. The CW clearly doesn’t base anything on ratings alone or else Nikita would have been gone two seasons ago.

    I fully expect Cult to fail which is too bad because it looks like a decent show. People will think it is just a “The Following” copycat even though it was written and shelved years ago plus it is premiering in the CW death slot which just screams bad ratings and cancellation (Emily Owens MD, Ringer, Hellcats, Life Unexpected, Melrose Place, etc). I don’t expect Cult to be the show that breaks that trend.

    I also think Beauty and the Beast will be canceled a la The Secret Circle last year. It is just not holding enough of The Vampire Diaries audience. If The CW was smart, they would try it in another time slot to see if it can stand on it’s own before they renewed it.

    At this rate, it also wouldn’t surprise me if Hart of Dixie and The Carrie Diaries were both renewed and paired together next season. HOD will get the Nikita treatment of 4 seasons and I don’t know if The CW is willing to let TCD go just yet. Plus I am pretty sure both shows are created by Josh Schwartz and Stephanie Savage. Since Gossip Girl has already ended, I am positive at least one of HOD and TCD will be renewed in order to keep the two of them connected to the network. Cancel both HOD and TCD, along with GG, they will be gone from the network completely.

    Renewed:
    The Vampire Diaries
    Arrow
    Supernatural
    Hart of Dixie
    The Carrie Diaries
    90210-final season
    Nikita (UGH!!!)

    Canceled:
    Emily Owens
    Gossip Girl
    Cult (99% sure this show is a goner before it even premieres)
    Beauty and the Beast

  • freya

    Charmed Roswell was averaging 2.7 million per episode more than Vampire diaries and Supernatural now. If they will renew the Series I assure you the fans will come back full swing. Surprisingly the shows following still maintain their fanbase 12 years after they cancelled it.

  • Charmed

    @Freya What are you talking about? Roswell isn’t coming back!

  • Charmed

    When dothe finals come in?

  • gerry

    it is absurd to me that everyone thinks 90210 will be renewed when its early enough to wrap it. order a rewrite on the scripts before the final few eps go into production and its done. if cw is faced with all of these decisions about shows that exhibit even the potential of performing v this one that obviously will not, there is no reason to renew it. at all. if the cw was smart, they told the 90210 folks to write this season finale as something that would work for the series as well. one tree hill did that like 4 years in a row.

    good or not, i think cult is a goner.

    i think hod is fine. its really between batb and tcd. with tcd, the net knows what it will get. they have no idea what batb will have if not paired with tvd. i honestly don’t think cw will keep a show that airs after tvd until a show manages to keep the lead in.

  • JJA

    Supernatural cannot run forever. The actors will want out eventually. Thus, the CW is being stupid by not working on a Supernatural spinn-off or two.

  • jody

    cancle 90210 and Carrie Diaries or Hart of Dixie
    keep BatB

  • Jamie

    Long time viewers of 90210 should notice something since the mid-season episodes: they’re wrapping things up! I’ve watched since the pilot and it definitely feels like a final season to me. The finale could have been written as a series finale and we just don’t know it yet. I also don’t think they finish shooting until April.

    I think The CW will renew:

    Hart of Dixie
    Nikita (NOT for a final season)
    Beauty & The Beast for Friday

    Canceled:
    Cult
    Gossip Girl
    Emily Owens, M.D.

    The Carrie Diaries needs a few more weeks; Oh, Sit will earn cancellation in-season.

  • Jamie

    Also, does anybody else think they should try and re-acquire Friday Night Smackdown when the Syfy deal ends?

  • Tom

    Some of you B&B buffs need to come up with a better reason for believing that B&B will be renewed than that your gut feelings. The numbers suggest that B&B can’t sustain ratings peaks for long. The show lost half of its 1.2 debut demo within the first three episodes, falling to a 0.6. After returning from hiatus, it scored consecutive 0.7 demos and then fell to a 0.6 again last week. The 0.6 demo was typical, but the audience of 1.48 MM was the show’s second lowest. Not a good omen.

    The only time B&B really bombed was on Episode 8 when it scored a 0.5 ratings with a record low audience of 1.41 MM. However, the next week, the demo rebounded to a 0.6 with an audience of 1.59 MM. Based on these numbers, it appears that B&B is pretty much destined to be a 0.6 rated show with a fluctuating audience in the 1.50 MM range with no real growth potential. The way I see it, so long as B&B stays around 0.6, the show stands an even chance of being renewed. However, with 10 episodes left to air, it’s unclear whether the core audience will stick around. Like TSC, if the show starts accumulating 0.5 ratings, it will be cancelled.

    Another factor complicating B&B’s renewal prospects is that the show will likely be moved to permit “The Originals” to air in its place. Wednesdays are also out unless the CW is crazy enough to break up Arrow and SPN. That means B&B would have to air on one of the other three days at 9 PM. That’s because the show’s ratings aren’t high enough to serve as an 8 PM lead in for another program. Fridays would be detrimental to B&B because of low viewership and the presence of Grimm on NBC at 9 PM. The latter is growing in audience appeal and B&B can’t compete with it. That leaves Mondays and Tuesdays. Carrie and HOD occupy the 8 PM slots on those days and their ratings are good enough that I believe they’ll be renewed. That leaves the CW with consecutive 9 PM slots to fill. Unless B&B’s ratings improve, I’d assume the suits at the CW would fill those with pilots. So, in conclusion, it looks like B&B is currently right on the edge of either being cancelled for low ratings or being squeezed off the schedule. Some of this is clearly wishful thinking, but I believe it’s more plausible than some of the opinions I’ve been reading in this thread.

  • Bob

    90210 is a great show. I hope AT LEAST they will give it a send off even if it is in May.

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