NBC: 'Community' Starts As Certain To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

February 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
Smash :cry: :cry: 0.75
The New Normal :oops: 0.78
1600 Penn :oops: 0.81
Guys With Kids :cry: :cry: 0.83
Whitney :cry: :cry: 0.89
Deception :oops: 0.90
Go On :| :| :| 0.90
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
Community :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.18
The Office final season 1.31
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
Up All Night :cry: :cry: pending
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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Surprising most of our polled readers, a Dan Harmon-less Community returned to NBC's schedule with a 1.9 adults 18-49 rating last week. That's plenty good enough to be "certain to be renewed" on the ratings basket case that is NBC. Would a ratings decline cause that prediction to be adjusted downward? It could. Stay tuned.

The other end of the NBC ratings spectrum is both woeful and crowded. Ratings are so pitiful that only shows that have hit a 1.1 rating (1600 Penn, Deception) have been moved to "certain to be canceled". Those that have hit a 1.2 rating (Whitney, Smash, Guys With Kids) are just "likely to be canceled". And those that have held at a 1.3 (Go On) or above are still "toss ups". Even so, the complete collapse of NBC spring ratings means that some of those shows probably have brighter futures than I am predicting at this point. NBC's scripted show average the last three weeks has hovered around a 1.5. That means shows that average a 1.3 have a reasonably good chance of being renewed. Let that sink in for a second. Yikes.

My "don't update until the ratings arrive" posture has me holding Up All Night at "likely canceled", but the Applegate departure last week could certainly have the reasonable think its cancellation is certain.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Oliver

    Putting Community as “Certain to be renewed” is classic click bait. We both know it won’t last.

  • Lowdownhodown

    I doubt very much it’ll stay that high. Sharp plummet coming this week. Get ready to shed some of those beaming green smiles.

  • Bryce

    In all fairness Smash has only aired one episode. I would give it more of a chance.

  • Jeff R.

    How do the syndication gods interact with Community? Does the fact that NBC ordered 13 rather than 17 episodes mean that the show is exempt from that argument entirely?

  • Oliver

    My guess is that Community will bottom out around 1.2-1.4, which should justify its renewal given the weakness of NBC’s other sitcoms, its horrible timeslot, the number of episodes (84), its favourable demographic skew, and the looming prospect of cable reruns (which may boost its ratings next season).

    Still, NBC execs have hinted they want rid of the show, so it might still be axed unless it’s a slam dunk.

  • r0ckmypants

    @Bryce – In all fairness, Smash has actually aired two episodes; the premiere counted as two of its eighteen episodes this season.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “How do the syndication gods interact with Community? Does the fact that NBC ordered 13 rather than 17 episodes mean that the show is exempt from that argument entirely?”

    I think the number of episodes that were ordered for this season is irrelevant at this point.

    If the show continues to do well (relative to other NBC shows) it gets renewed, otherwise it gets canceled.

  • mando

    Guys with kids should be given more chances as well.

  • Rebecca

    Good for Community so far. I’m rooting for GWK, GO, and Parks, too. I watch UAN, Whitney, 1600 Penn, TNN and Smash, but if any or all of them were canceled I wouldn’t be disappointed. Enjoying 1600 Penn the most out of those.

  • JacobYates

    Were there just too many additions and movements to include all of them in the headline?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “In all fairness Smash has only aired one episode. I would give it more of a chance.”

    Classic, if a little boring, Fan Excuse Bingo play.

    If it miraculously recovers from the premiere ratings disaster, I will adjust my prediction. That’s shockingly unlikely.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Were there just too many additions and movements to include all of them in the headline?”

    Yes. I will get them in over the next few weeks. Putting too much in the headline at once is counter productive.

  • JacobYates

    Go on needs the Voice back ASAP

  • Psac

    Hoping for Guys With Kids…

  • Honey Badger

    the Cancellation Bear should stay at NBC for a while.

    Cancel all shows on NBC except “ The Voice “ and NBC NFL Sunday Night Football. most shows have low ratings, the new shows have bombed, and the returning shows like Smash have bombed.

    If you are an executive NBC what do you do now?

  • mando

    When The voice is back, TNN and Go on will be upgraded to “likely to be renewed” while Guys with kids and Whitney have no booster like The voice.
    Isn’t it unfair to these two shows?
    Go on and TNN don’t perform well on their own while GWK n Whitney keep their viewers.

  • MichaelChickless

    Cancel:

    Smash
    The New Normal
    1600 Penn
    Deception

  • Allen

    I hope NBC moves Community out of that 8:00 time slot. Even if it’s just back 30 minutes, not going against TBBT and Idol would certainly help I would think.

  • THE OLD MAN

    So many sitcoms in the bear’s soup! Animal Practice w/ a lot of beef!

  • dubium

    Is the future of Community even about ratings anymore? No matter how good the ratings is this spring the show still seems to be about to end. The creator and atleast one of the other writers left the show, and now also Chevy Chase. Does ratings even matter anymore in this scenario?

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