NBC: ‘Community’ Starts As Certain To Be Renewed
Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewNbcShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network’s decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 10, 2013):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Do No Harm*||canceled||0.50|
|The New Normal||:oops:||0.78|
|Guys With Kids||:cry: :cry:||0.83|
|Go On||:| :| :|||0.90|
|30 Rock*||final season complete||0.93|
|Parenthood*||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.08|
|Parks & Recreation||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.16|
|Law & Order: SVU||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.17|
|Community||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.18|
|The Office||final season||1.31|
|Chicago Fire||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.34|
|Up All Night||:cry: :cry:||pending|
|Grimm (F)||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||pending|
|Revolution||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||pending|
Surprising most of our polled readers, a Dan Harmon-less Community returned to NBC’s schedule with a 1.9 adults 18-49 rating last week. That’s plenty good enough to be “certain to be renewed” on the ratings basket case that is NBC. Would a ratings decline cause that prediction to be adjusted downward? It could. Stay tuned.
The other end of the NBC ratings spectrum is both woeful and crowded. Ratings are so pitiful that only shows that have hit a 1.1 rating (1600 Penn, Deception) have been moved to “certain to be canceled”. Those that have hit a 1.2 rating (Whitney, Smash, Guys With Kids) are just “likely to be canceled”. And those that have held at a 1.3 (Go On) or above are still “toss ups”. Even so, the complete collapse of NBC spring ratings means that some of those shows probably have brighter futures than I am predicting at this point. NBC’s scripted show average the last three weeks has hovered around a 1.5. That means shows that average a 1.3 have a reasonably good chance of being renewed. Let that sink in for a second. Yikes.
My “don’t update until the ratings arrive” posture has me holding Up All Night at “likely canceled”, but the Applegate departure last week could certainly have the reasonable think its cancellation is certain.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the “old” Fall predictions in the table.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2013
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.