NBC: 'Community' Starts As Certain To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

February 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
Smash :cry: :cry: 0.75
The New Normal :oops: 0.78
1600 Penn :oops: 0.81
Guys With Kids :cry: :cry: 0.83
Whitney :cry: :cry: 0.89
Deception :oops: 0.90
Go On :| :| :| 0.90
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
Community :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.18
The Office final season 1.31
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
Up All Night :cry: :cry: pending
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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Surprising most of our polled readers, a Dan Harmon-less Community returned to NBC's schedule with a 1.9 adults 18-49 rating last week. That's plenty good enough to be "certain to be renewed" on the ratings basket case that is NBC. Would a ratings decline cause that prediction to be adjusted downward? It could. Stay tuned.

The other end of the NBC ratings spectrum is both woeful and crowded. Ratings are so pitiful that only shows that have hit a 1.1 rating (1600 Penn, Deception) have been moved to "certain to be canceled". Those that have hit a 1.2 rating (Whitney, Smash, Guys With Kids) are just "likely to be canceled". And those that have held at a 1.3 (Go On) or above are still "toss ups". Even so, the complete collapse of NBC spring ratings means that some of those shows probably have brighter futures than I am predicting at this point. NBC's scripted show average the last three weeks has hovered around a 1.5. That means shows that average a 1.3 have a reasonably good chance of being renewed. Let that sink in for a second. Yikes.

My "don't update until the ratings arrive" posture has me holding Up All Night at "likely canceled", but the Applegate departure last week could certainly have the reasonable think its cancellation is certain.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Ultima

    @Bryce
    In all fairness Smash has only aired one episode. I would give it more of a chance.

    It’s not a certain cancellation, that’s already being generous. Typically, when a second year show premieres down 33% or more from its finale, it’s going to get canceled.

  • Ultima

    @Honey Badger
    Cancel all shows on NBC except “ The Voice “ and NBC NFL Sunday Night Football. most shows have low ratings

    So since most shows have low ratings, they should cancel all of them? :roll:

    You can’t be this obtuse.

  • Greg

    @Oliver

    Doubtful. Community has never reached a 1.2. So why would it now when it returned stronger than last year?

  • MichaelChickless

    My posts are being blocked in the ABC and FOX Renew/Cancel articles for some reason. I didn’t try to post anything in those other than the list of shows I thought should be cancelled.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Is the future of Community even about ratings anymore? No matter how good the ratings is this spring the show still seems to be about to end. The creator and atleast one of the other writers left the show, and now also Chevy Chase. Does ratings even matter anymore in this scenario?”

    Of course they do.

    Harmon’s already gone. If his departure was the critical event, the show would already be dead.

    Chase is just a single cast member in a pretty large cast, and not the main one.

  • NY

    From your last article, TNN has lost a smiley, but the show didn’t air last week, so how is that possible? Also, zap2it writers always remind us that half season, or a couple episodes, for that matter, are not an indication of what will happen. Then, why not make an index that counts all the episodes instead of just a few? Wouldn’t that list be more reliable?

  • Honey Badger

    Doesn’t NBC have to do something drastic now?
    Cancel all shows on NBC except “ The Voice “ and NBC NFL Sunday Night Football. most shows have low ratings, the new shows have bombed, and the returning shows like Smash have bombed
    “ Even so, the complete collapse of NBC spring ratings means that some of those shows probably have brighter futures than I am predicting at this point. NBC’s scripted show average the last three weeks has hovered around a 1.5. That means shows that average a 1.3 have a reasonably good chance of being renewed. Let that sink in for a second. Yikes. “

    New Shows: Animal Practice , Do No Harm , 1600 Penn , Deception, The New Normal, Guys With Kids, and others all bombed and are DOA (Dead on Arrival). Anyone could see these were terrible shows and would bomb. How can this happen?
    And with all the money they spent on “Smash “ the show barely registered above a 1.0 18-49 rating when it come back this year. How can this happen?
    Almost all the shows on NBC should be canceled by the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear.

    What does NBC do now?

  • Greg

    Last season, I mean.

  • Michael

    Wow, so little confidence in “Community.” Especially since it finally beat “The Big Bang Theory.” Well, the re-runs, anyway. Okay, fine, the re-runs on TBS, but hey, you have to start somewhere.

  • Michael

    Why not bring some shows over from USA? “Burn Notice” is already getting more viewers than did “Do No Harm.”

  • Dan

    Syndication is irrelevant, Community will have 84 episodes and a deal for syndication on Comedy Central. It comes down to how the show performs over the next batch of episodes.

    I’m surprised Smash isn’t certain to be cancelled out of the bat but it will be. I’m sure it will get the headline next week, or probably the week after since it wont air another new episode until February 19.

    In terms of the comedies with the exception of Parks and Rec & maybe Community, all current comedies are performing like garbage (except The Office but that will end in May)

    The best way to determine the status on the comedies is this. NBC understands that their comedies are all doing subpar however unlike last year they won’t renew a bunch for 13 episodes so its likely they will save a few to rebuild Thursdays. Here’s my guess based not only on ratings but other factors.

    Up All Night – Is dead. Low ratings, plus show runners leaving plus Christina Applegate leaving plus now new episodes produced = Cancelled. Its only a matter of time.

    Community – While it only aired 1 episode, we’ll have to see how it performs over the course of the season. If it sinks its done if it holds up then its good for a renewal.

    Go On – NBC will try everything to save this one, it was their post Voice it out of the gate and NBC is saving about 5 episodes to air post Voice beginning March 26. NBC needs 1 new comedy to return and this one is the most likely bet. Ignore the garbage “between Voice cycles” numbers for this one, its a good bet to return.

    The New Normal – I think NBC may try to salvage this one too, at least for 13 episodes Thursdays this fall. The ratings are horrible granted, but a possible uptick after Go On when The Voice returns could be enough to save this show.

    1600 Penn – This series is 1 and done and its a show just waiting to get burned through. Normally it would get pulled but NBC will likely want to air all episodes through April.

    Whitney – This show seems 50/50 its ratings arent horrible enough over other shows to warrant cancellation yet NBC could use it along with a new comedy next season. I’d say NBC may try to salvage this one.

    Guys With Kids – This show may seem 50/50 to some but its more likely that NBC will just dump this one in favor of a new comedy. Its numbers have dropped from its lead in and all 17 eps will have aired by the end of February, NBC has there pilots in contention so they may have no reason to bring this one back.

    So since all ratings are equally garbage for NBC’s comedies, If I were to bet I’d say NBC will renew Parks & Rec, Go On, The New Normal, and maybe Whitney while they would dump Up All Night, 1600 Penn, and Guys With Kids. NBC needs to rebuild Thursdays after the departure of The Office and 30 Rock. Go On, The New Normal, Parks & Rec and Community are all candidates to do so as well as the New Michael J FOX comedy. Go On and The New Normal’s future depends basically on The Voice for a good lead in while 1600 Penn, Up All Night, and Guys With Kids’ fate may be already sealed.

  • Mr Mumble

    Oliver is right about the title being link-bait but of course Bill has every right to say these are fluid statuses… but that does make them largely useless for new or just returning shows.

    Only four episodes of “The New Normal” have aired since:
    http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/12/11/nbc-the-new-normal-is-likely-to-be-renewed/160956/

    TNN’s precipitous fall is explained by me in that comments section. Bill is smart enough to know that, he’s also smart enough to ignore it because the current system gets him more clicks.

  • Honey Badger

    Ultima
    Posted February 12, 2013 at 9:59 AM
    @Honey Badger
    Cancel all shows on NBC except “ The Voice “ and NBC NFL Sunday Night Football. most shows have low ratings
    So since most shows have low ratings, they should cancel all of them?
    You can’t be this obtuse.

    @ Ultima, if NBC does not replace these shows they are doomed to have ever decreasing ratings, and since most shows are in the 1’s 18-49 ratings, this will cost NBC a lot of money. Soon NBC will not only be seldom watched, they will be unprofitable.
    NBC has to do something drastic at this time.

    I Stick with, Almost all the shows on NBC should be canceled by the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear.

  • Ultima

    @NY
    why not make an index that counts all the episodes instead of just a few? Wouldn’t that list be more reliable?

    Past experience has shown that an index based only on winter/spring airings is more reliable than one based on the entire year.

    The downside is that the index has some issues at the start of the calendar year due to irregular airings, but that goes away as practicallly every show airs 3-4 times during February.

  • matt

    Revolution can’t come back fast enough for NBC

  • Oliver

    @Greg
    Because shows decline year-on-year and the first week boost won’t be sustained, much like mid-season last year.

    If Community only hits a low of 1.2, it’s actually a very good year-on-year drop, especially when you factor in NBC’s decline and the strength of the competition.

  • Ultima

    @Honey Badger
    NBC has to do something drastic at this time.

    There’s a difference between “most” and “all.” Especially because you seem to have trouble acknowledging that NBC is actually doing much better with its dramas than it has recently.

    Also, there’s a limit to the number of fall shows they can effectively promote. I know you keep hoping that something drastic will actually happen, but it won’t – that’s not how this business works.

  • Greg

    @Honey Badger

    NBC has enough shows doing decently to fill their fall schedule. Hopefully for them, some of their summer shows can survive and return on midseason to fill the gaps left by The Voice and the show(s) on hiatus.

  • Joe

    Community would have to fall pretty hard to get cancelled (below a 1.2). It could, but I think its more likely that it’ll stay around 1.3/1.4 which is definitely enough for at least one more year.

  • John

    Community’s ratings have been consistently inconsistent, I wouldn’t be surprised if it stays at 1.9 or drop to 1.2-1.4 range and get into risky territory

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