NBC: 'Community' Starts As Certain To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

February 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
Smash :cry: :cry: 0.75
The New Normal :oops: 0.78
1600 Penn :oops: 0.81
Guys With Kids :cry: :cry: 0.83
Whitney :cry: :cry: 0.89
Deception :oops: 0.90
Go On :| :| :| 0.90
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
Community :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.18
The Office final season 1.31
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
Up All Night :cry: :cry: pending
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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Surprising most of our polled readers, a Dan Harmon-less Community returned to NBC's schedule with a 1.9 adults 18-49 rating last week. That's plenty good enough to be "certain to be renewed" on the ratings basket case that is NBC. Would a ratings decline cause that prediction to be adjusted downward? It could. Stay tuned.

The other end of the NBC ratings spectrum is both woeful and crowded. Ratings are so pitiful that only shows that have hit a 1.1 rating (1600 Penn, Deception) have been moved to "certain to be canceled". Those that have hit a 1.2 rating (Whitney, Smash, Guys With Kids) are just "likely to be canceled". And those that have held at a 1.3 (Go On) or above are still "toss ups". Even so, the complete collapse of NBC spring ratings means that some of those shows probably have brighter futures than I am predicting at this point. NBC's scripted show average the last three weeks has hovered around a 1.5. That means shows that average a 1.3 have a reasonably good chance of being renewed. Let that sink in for a second. Yikes.

My "don't update until the ratings arrive" posture has me holding Up All Night at "likely canceled", but the Applegate departure last week could certainly have the reasonable think its cancellation is certain.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Shepherd

    “So far, they should let the guy who greenlit Revolution have more say than the one who picked Animal Practice (and if its the same guy, it goes a long way toward explaining Do No Harm);)”

    LOL :)

  • KT

    @Rollie

    Have you lost your marbles? I do not watch it, but there is no WAY they’re cancelling Parenthood (and this is coming from a very sad Smash fan). Parenthood is one of their most stable shows and deserves to be renewed for a FULL season.

  • reedmac

    cancel

    New Normal
    Deception
    Go On
    Guys with kids
    Whitney
    Up All Night
    Smash
    1600 Penn

  • TomZ

    I don’t understand why did NBC put “community” at 8 on Thursday. I mean if for the last 3 years “community” couldn’t draw more than 2.0 in that timeslot, why do they think that now it could?
    I would put it on Tuesday or on Wednesday. Community can do better ratings against “american idol” and the “big bang theory” than “the new normal normal” or than “guys with kids” which don’t have much competition!
    So without the office, parks and recreation (or community) is the going to have the best ratings on NBC? GO PARKS AND REC! :)

  • reedmac

    Monday
    8-The Voice/The Biggest loser/The Voice
    9-The Voice/The Biggest Loser/The Voice
    10-Revolution/New Drama/Revolution

    Tuesday
    8-The Voice Results/New Comedy/The Voice Results
    8.30-The Voice Results/New Comedy/The Voice Results
    9-Dracula/Betty White/New Drama
    10-Hannibal/Parenthood

    Wednesday
    8-New Comedy
    8.30-New Comedy
    9-Crossbones/New Drama
    10-Chicago Fire

    Thursday
    8-Community
    8.30-Parks and Rec
    9-New Comedy
    9.30-New Comedy
    10-SVU

    Friday
    8-New Drama
    9-Grimm
    10-Dateline

  • Lance B.

    I know everyone is expecting community to drop in the ratings from its premier but wont every show this thursday (including big bang) drop due to the holiday?? how many couples will be home watching tv on valentines day?? i know i wont i have stupid dinner reservations at 730.. so i’ll be missing community this week..

    just saying the 3rd and 4th weeks will show us more likely were community will stand on the ratings.. im expecting a big drop across the boards for all shows this thursday

  • gerry

    @ rollie, that is one of the dumbest renew/cancel lists i have ever seen. i guess you are just picking what you like?

    @ reedmac, i can’t imagine they won’t use p&r to tentpole thursday’s lineup on thursday. it will be their strongest comedy at that point.

  • KJ Styles

    @Bill Gorman- “If it miraculously recovers from the premiere ratings disaster, I will adjust my prediction. That’s shockingly unlikely.”

    I disagree about it’s unlikelyhood, especially considering how abysmal NBC’s scripted average is. I could see The Voice raising the average of everything that follows it (Go On, TNN, Smash).

  • KJ Styles

    @Ultima- “Now, I’m not saying that I think a show is going to come along and pull ER-like numbers, but it’s not unreasonable to think that sometime soon we’ll see the next Cosby Show or Millionaire or American Idol and watch the TV landscape change overnight.”

    They’ll NEVER be another Cosby Show on any network, let alone NBC. Big Bang Theory is the highest rated comedy today and even that doesn’t get the ratings that Cosby got in it’s prime.

  • Bob

    Dear God in Heaven, PLEASE renew Guys with Kids!!!! lol.

  • tjw

    @KJ Styles
    I disagree about it’s unlikelyhood, especially considering how abysmal NBC’s scripted average is. I could see The Voice raising the average of everything that follows it (Go On, TNN, Smash).

    I don’t know how much The Voice is going to filter down to 10:00, though. If you look at Parenthood’s ratings this year, it was pulling 1.8-2.0 when The Voice was on and 1.8-1.9 this January.

  • Dan

    @KJ Styles – That’s exactly what I think but by how much would The Voice raise the shows? I can see it definitely helping Go On and to some degree The New Normal but would viewers really stick around an extra hour to watch Smash? You’re right that all 3 shows will rise after The Voice but not enough for a renewal at least in Smash’s case.

    @Bill – Has Community ever been certain to be renewed? I’ve been following the site for a while and I could see it being certain back in late 09-10 By March of 2010 and 2011 it had been renewed early for the next season. Thats got to be unexpected.

    @Gerry – I could see NBC using Parks for 9:00 Thurs, other options are Go On and the new Michael J FOX series.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “@Bill – Has Community ever been certain to be renewed?”

    Sadly, I have no easy way of checking that.

  • Ultima

    @KJ Styles
    They’ll NEVER be another Cosby Show on any network, let alone NBC.

    Nonsense. Less than a decade ago, American Idol launched FOX to heights no one thought possible and lasted a ridiculous eight seasons as #1. These things do happen!

    Big Bang Theory is the highest rated comedy today and even that doesn’t get the ratings that Cosby got in it’s prime.

    Wow. Can you not see beyond absolute numbers?

  • omabin

    NBC Fantasy Schedule

    Monday (Fall and Spring/Winter)
    The Voice/ The Biggest Looser
    The Voice/ The Biggest Looser
    New Drama/ Dateline or Specials (I don’t think it is worth to spend money producing and promoting a new one here)

    Tuesday (Fall and Spring/Winter)
    The Voice/ Off Their Rockers
    New Multicam Comedy
    New Multicam Comedy
    Parenthood (Just give it a full season already)

    Wednesday
    Chicago Fire
    Revolution
    New Drama (Crossbones)

    Thursday
    Community
    Parks and Recreation
    New Comedy (Michael J.Fox Show)
    Go On
    Law and Order: SVU

    Friday
    Dracula
    Grimm
    Dateline

    Renew Whitney as well for scheduling spackle

  • omabin

    I must say, I feel like I am not being aggressive enough with NBC’s schedule (I am keeping the 4hour comedy on Thursday, etc.) but I am not sure of what else to do to improve it.

  • dubium

    @KJ Styles There could be another Cosby Show if they somehow managed to make a show that appealed to mostly everyone/anyone as that show did. Do BBT appeal to black people? Old people? Young people (children)? To anyone who does not give a shit about “nerds” and “pop culture” or “pop science” or jewish in-jokes? Everything written today is too niche, too offensive, too stupid, too “black” too “girlie”, too young, too old or whatever that it always excludes one or many big groups of potential viewers. Today they write shows with the purpose to aim it at just one category of viewers. Instead of just writing good shows that works for anyone.

    The Cosby Show had a black family but not a negatively sterotypical black in how they lived, acted and all that. This works well with both black and white viewers i imagine. They were also positive rolemodels, also works well with most decent people of any race. It was never rude or offensive, it was family friendly even for children. No sex or cursing or violence. It was light-hearted even if it sometimes dealt with problems. The cast was nice and entertaining. It was mostly about common everyday, everyman topics. Everyone could relate to it.

    That is how i remeber it anyway, i was quite young when i watched it a long time ago. We watched it together though as a family, mother, father, me and my brother. In later years there have been very few scripted shows on tv that i can imagine two young kids could watch together like that with their parents, and it is entertaining for all of them? Either it is just to offensive, sexual, violent or stupid, or it is too niche so that either the kids or the parents do not get it.

  • Ricky

    Woo Community woo! Hell, we might still have a shot at #sixseasonsandamovie after all! Just hope a fifth season comes up with a good way to make up for the loss of Pierce – maybe have Leonard fill the gap?

    Also, I am most delighted to see TNN as “certain cancellation.” That is something I have wanted to see for quite some time. Not so delighted to see 1600 Penn listed the same way. I love that show and I would be sad to see it go (but I have accepted that it’s more than likely).

    Rebooted: The Elimination Game. http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2013/02/10/play-the-elimination-game-page-3/168989/comment-page-3/#comment-1387409

  • Dan

    While The New Normal is listed as likely to be cancelled due to its horrible ratings, I’m almost sure the show will have a ratings uptick due to The Voice and then NBC will try to save it for next season.

  • Dan

    @Bill – After doing some research I came to see in the renew/cancel index in Sept 2009 there was no certain to be renewed. Just likely to be renewed, on the bubble, and likely to be cancelled. Community was likely to be renewed achieving a 2.9 after The Office’s 3.7, something that would be considered amazing for the show now. Ironically Parks and Rec was likely to be cancelled with a 1.9 average for it’s first two episodes of the season it is now certain to be renewed with the same numbers. http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2009/10/06/parks-recreation-hopes-for-community-assistance/29732/

    It seems this may actually be the first time Community is certain.

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