NBC: 'Community' Starts As Certain To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

February 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
Smash :cry: :cry: 0.75
The New Normal :oops: 0.78
1600 Penn :oops: 0.81
Guys With Kids :cry: :cry: 0.83
Whitney :cry: :cry: 0.89
Deception :oops: 0.90
Go On :| :| :| 0.90
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
Community :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.18
The Office final season 1.31
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
Up All Night :cry: :cry: pending
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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Surprising most of our polled readers, a Dan Harmon-less Community returned to NBC's schedule with a 1.9 adults 18-49 rating last week. That's plenty good enough to be "certain to be renewed" on the ratings basket case that is NBC. Would a ratings decline cause that prediction to be adjusted downward? It could. Stay tuned.

The other end of the NBC ratings spectrum is both woeful and crowded. Ratings are so pitiful that only shows that have hit a 1.1 rating (1600 Penn, Deception) have been moved to "certain to be canceled". Those that have hit a 1.2 rating (Whitney, Smash, Guys With Kids) are just "likely to be canceled". And those that have held at a 1.3 (Go On) or above are still "toss ups". Even so, the complete collapse of NBC spring ratings means that some of those shows probably have brighter futures than I am predicting at this point. NBC's scripted show average the last three weeks has hovered around a 1.5. That means shows that average a 1.3 have a reasonably good chance of being renewed. Let that sink in for a second. Yikes.

My "don't update until the ratings arrive" posture has me holding Up All Night at "likely canceled", but the Applegate departure last week could certainly have the reasonable think its cancellation is certain.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Vrpe

    I think Community will comeback for a shortened final season next year.

    NBC is trying really hard with Up All Night so I’m thinking they are going to bring that one back for sure even without Applegate who is overrated anyways and wasn’t bringing ratings to the show not a huge loss for them.

    Whitney and Guys with Kids will likely comeback although GWK might depend on development in the multi-cam area for pilots in the fall.

    P&R is a certain renewal while Go On is on the bubble.

    Expect TNN, 1600 Penn, and Save Me (ratings will be poor) not to be back.

  • TeeVeeViewer

    It wouldn’t surprise me if the Nothing But Crap network chose to renew this mess. It’s virtually unwatchable.

  • Craig

    Very happy to see Guys With Kids, 1600 Penn, The New Normal and Smash in big trouble.
    In other news, how good was Community’s return? Maybe NBC has a clue after all…

  • Kris

    6 seasons and a movie!

  • omabin

    Deadline is reporting that one episode of multi-cam Up All Night will be produced and air… What a mess!

  • KJ Styles

    @Ultima- “Nonsense. Less than a decade ago, American Idol launched FOX to heights no one thought possible and lasted a ridiculous eight seasons as #1. These things do happen!”

    You cannot compare a sitcom and a singing competition. Those are two entirely different shows and different audiences. Besides, NBC is trying to emulate/overtake Idol with The Voice and for the most part they’ve succeeded. They’re not as high rated as Idol was in it’s prime, but it’s on par with it now.

    “Wow. Can you not see beyond absolute numbers?”

    Sure I can, I’m just being realistic. The Cosby Show was a timeless classic and I don’t see any sitcom duplicating it’s success anytime soon. The last one that did so was Seinfeld and even that was over 15 years ago.

  • Ultima

    @KJ Styles
    You cannot compare a sitcom and a singing competition

    You seem to have missed my entire point or the earlier part of the conversation.

    The context is that NBC is doomed unless they do something drastic, to which several of us responded that one show alone is capable of changing a network.

    In that context, yes, I can easily compare American Idol to The Cosby Show.

  • KJ Styles

    @Dubium- You made some valid points about The Cosby Show and TV in general. I agree with most of what you said, however the number one thing that made the show work was Bill Cosby. NBC would have to find another iconic figure on that level to keep people watching, and I honestly don’t see that person out there.

    That said, I would love to see another black sitcom on broadcast TV. However, I wouldn’t want NBC to be the network that airs it because it’d get lumped in with the rest of the bubble shows. CBS or ABC would be better places to air it.

  • KJ Styles

    What NBC could do to raise it’s average…Bring back Deal Or No Deal. Air it between Voice cycles, as well as Sunday Nights after the football season. That would give scripted NBC shows a good lead in.

  • KJ Styles

    @Ultima- “You seem to have missed my entire point or the earlier part of the conversation.”

    No I didn’t. I saw your point completely, you just made the wrong comparison.

    “The context is that NBC is doomed unless they do something drastic, to which several of us responded that one show alone is capable of changing a network.”

    It depends on how you define “doomed”. If you mean it’ll continue to have crappy scripted show ratings then I agree. But it’s not like the network will ever go out of business.

    My point is that in this day and age, it will take more than ONE show to change NBC’s fortunes. There is no star out there the caliber of Bill Cosby to lure in audiences. While one hot ratings getter will definitely help, it will have to follow up on that for NBC to be prominent in prime time again. Even The Cosby Show didn’t do it alone, it just paved the way and shows like Cheers, Night Court, LA Law and the like became smash hits as well.

  • Honey Badger

    Ultima
    Posted February 12, 2013 at 1:59 PM
    @KJ Styles
    “ They’ll NEVER be another Cosby Show on any network, let alone NBC. “
    Nonsense. Less than a decade ago, American Idol launched FOX to heights no one thought possible and lasted a ridiculous eight seasons as #1. These things do happen!
    “Big Bang Theory is the highest rated comedy today and even that doesn’t get the ratings that Cosby got in it’s prime. “
    Wow. Can you not see beyond absolute numbers?

    Ultima
    Posted February 12, 2013 at 10:29 AM
    @HoneyBadger
    If that is so, say bye bye to NBC, a few years of slow agonizing death of the network.
    Because no network has every been down in the dumps and recovered except for ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX?
    NBC has to do something drastic at this time
    Why do you think this is the first time that a network has ever been in bad shape?

    @ Ultima – KJ Styles is right
    You are missing the point that broadcast networks have been dropping like a rock in ratings and viewers for many years. Cable, Hulu, Netflix, the internet, Univision, and others are all taking away their viewers. Broadcast television has much more competition than it did a decade ago. In fact things have changed dramatically the last five years. Most of the networks are a shell of their former selves in viewers and ratings. An example of competition “The Walking Dead was Sunday’s top cable original with a series high 6.1 adults 18-49 rating.”
    “ The Cosby Show put up unheard of numbers: in 1987 it had a 34.9 HH rating, the highest since Bonanza in 1965 (22 years), and an all-time high of 63 million viewers per episode” . Today there is no show in broadcast that comes anywhere close to that, the top show today “The Big Bang Theory on CBS swept its time period, finishing first in households (11.3/18), viewers (19.02m), adults 25-54 (7.9/21), adults 18-49 (6.2/18) and adults 18-34 (4.4/15). “ American Idol on Fox came nowhere near that, in its best days having around 20 million viewers and now having around 4.1 rating 13 – 14 million viewers.
    All the broadcast networks are tanking big time again this year, the only reason NBC is up overall is because of “The Voice “ and NBC NFL Sunday night Football “ without these two shows NBC would be having a down year. And “ The Voice “ratings will drop soon, like all the other oversaturated singing and talent shows, then watch NBC drop big time, as it is very dependent on “ The Voice “ for its ratings and lead-in help for other shows ratings.
    NBC is in worse shape than others like CBS because they have lower ratings to begin with. Example: if I have a million dollars and lose 10% I still have $900,000, and if you have $10 dollars and gain 20% you have $10.20. Who is in better shape? Me
    And yes, I do think this is the first time that a network has ever been in this bad of shape
    “the complete collapse of NBC spring ratings means that some of those shows probably have brighter futures than I am predicting at this point. NBC’s scripted show average the last three weeks has hovered around a 1.5. That means shows that average a 1.3 have a reasonably good chance of being renewed. Let that sink in for a second. Yikes.”

    Once again NBC has to do something drastic, or in the future they ratings will tank even more, and they will lose more revenue, and then become unprofitable. Then the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear will cancel the whole NBC network.

  • Honey Badger

    ‘Up All Night’ sitcom drama: NBC cuts order to one multi-cam episode
    By Geoff Berkshire
    February 12, 2013 7:43 PM ET
    Follow @geoffberkshire on Twitter | Google

    Maybe NBC should consider changing the title of “Up All Night” to “WTF.”
    The sophomore series with continued ratings woes is currently undergoing the unusual transition from a single camera comedy format to a more traditional multi-camera sitcom taped in front of a live audience. The transformation has cost the show both its leading lady Christina Applegate and creator Emily Spivey — who both bowed out voluntarily — and now NBC has scaled back the episode order from five multi-camera installments to just one.

    Yes, one.

  • Honey Badger

    @ Fake Me Out
    Great article on your link
    What he What,
    What is going on with the executives at NBC ?

    ‘Up All Night’ To Do 1 Multi-Camera Episode
    By NELLIE ANDREEVA | Tuesday February 12, 2013 @ 3:42pm PST
    EXCLUSIVE: We will get a glimpse of what a multi-camera Up All Night would look like after all. I have learned that NBC plans to film one multi-camera episode of the sophomore comedy without star Christina Applegate, who departed the series on Friday. I hear the episode will be directed by master multi-camera helmer James Burrows, who is doing three pilots this season. When NBC in October decided to turn softly rated single-camera comedy Up All Night into multi-camera, the network ordered five episodes to be shot in front of a live audience. That order has now been cut to one. It is unclear whether Applegate will be replaced; there had been rumors that NBC was eying other actresses, including Friends alumna Lisa Kudrow. The future of Up All Night is still up in the air while co-stars Will Arnett and Maya Rudolph are getting pilot offers. NBC had no comment.

    The multi-camera version of Up All Night is being shepherded by Linda Wallem, the show’s third showrunner following Jon Pollack and Tucker Cawley. Up All Night creator/executive producer Emily Spivey left the show last month. At TCA last month, NBC Entertainment president Jennifer Salke called the multi-camera revamp “a bit of an experiment”, but “we think it’s really one worth taking.”

    In its original incarnation, Up All Night was a family comedy about new parents played by Applegate and Arnett, which was inspired by Spivey’s real-life experiences going back to work soon after giving birth. The workplace element was expanded and switched from a PR firm to an Oprah-like talk show when Rudolph was cast as Applegate’s boss, and there has been speculation that the series will shift even further in that direction when it becomes multi-camera.

  • Fake Me Out

    RE: Up All Night

    I love one wag on Deadline who commented that they’ll have more cameras than episodes … arrrrrrrr! To bad the show wasn’t that funny.

  • Nick

    What NBC should do for 2013-2014:

    Mon-
    8: The Voice/ The Biggest Loser
    10: The Sixth Gun (new)

    Tue-
    8: The Voice
    9: Untitled Cee Lo Green Project (new)
    9:30: The New Normal
    10: Parenthood

    Wed-
    8: Revolution
    9: Grimm
    10: Believe (new)

    Thu-
    8: Community
    8:30: Parks & Recreation
    9: Untitled Michael J. Fox project (new)
    9:30: Untitled Peter Murrieta Project (new)
    10: Law & Order: Special Victims Unit

    Fri-
    8: Whitney
    8:30: Go On
    9: Dateline
    10: Rock Center with Brian Williams

    Sat-
    8: Believe (R)
    9: Law & Order: SVU (R)
    10: Saturday Night Live (R)

    Sun- (midseason)
    7: Dateline NBC
    8: Chicago Fire
    9: After Hours (new)
    10: The Celebrity Apprentice

    Midseason- Betty White’s Off Their Rockers

  • Honey Badger

    Let’s review some of NBC decisions this year.
    Interrupting the final ceremonies of the Olympics to show the premier of “Animal Practice “a show with low ratings that was soon cancelled.
    Retooling the show “ Smash “ which bombed in the ratings last year, continually dropping in ratings even with a great lead-in “ The Voice “, they put in new writers, new show runners, and new cast members. The show that has been called one of the most expensive shows on television. Then it premiered for the second season with a 1.1 rating.
    Retooling NBC “ Up All night “ again. A show with has had very low ratings, is on its third show runner, major cast changes, and so many more changes (read postings above)
    NBC new show “Do No Harm “. “While it’s blindingly obvious that Do No Harm is certain to be canceled after the lowest premiere rating in history for any scripted show on the big 4 broadcast networks” “After just two airings, Do No Harm has been canceled by NBC, and pulled from its schedule. It premiered to a very low 0.9 adults 18-49 rating, then fell even further to a 0.7 rating in its second week. “
    New shows: “Deception 1.2 18-49 rating “ , “The New Normal 1.1 “ , “1600 Penn 1.1 “ , “Guys With Kids 1.1 ”, “ Go On 1.3 “ ,all with ridiculously low ratings.
    Returning shows : NBC Whitney 1.3
    “ 30 Rock “ final season complete
    “ The Office “ final season

    Once again NBC needs drastic changes. What would you do if you were the President of NBC ?

  • Honey Badger

    @ Fake Me Out , I agree, thanks for the post

    Fake Me Out
    Posted February 12, 2013 at 6:25 PM
    RE: Up All Night

    I love one wag on Deadline who commented that they’ll have more cameras than episodes … arrrrrrrr! To bad the show wasn’t that funny.

  • Fake Me Out

    @Honey Badger

    Once again NBC needs drastic changes. What would you do if you were the President of NBC ?

    A) Use whiteout to change the N to an A?
    B) Take inspiration from the M*A*S*H theme song?
    C) Witness protection?
    D) Fake amnesia?
    E) Invest heavily in the lottery?
    F) Sign up for bomb duty in Afghanistan?
    G) Drink. Drink s’more. Fall down. Continue drinking.

    ymmv

  • sofaspud

    Lord knows SMASH has all kinds of problems going on, but if there’s ANY show on NBC that would benefit from a VOICE lead-in, it would SMASH. I would think the audience would be shared by those into singing/show biz programming.

    But then again NBC might not want to bother saving it.

    As with COMMUNITY, the recent retool of SMASH is a downgrade in quality.

  • Pepper

    Community will be renewed, and NBC will renew Go On to save face. Everything with two or one faces will be cancelled.

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