NBC: 'Community' Starts As Certain To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

February 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
Smash :cry: :cry: 0.75
The New Normal :oops: 0.78
1600 Penn :oops: 0.81
Guys With Kids :cry: :cry: 0.83
Whitney :cry: :cry: 0.89
Deception :oops: 0.90
Go On :| :| :| 0.90
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
Community :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.18
The Office final season 1.31
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
Up All Night :cry: :cry: pending
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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Surprising most of our polled readers, a Dan Harmon-less Community returned to NBC's schedule with a 1.9 adults 18-49 rating last week. That's plenty good enough to be "certain to be renewed" on the ratings basket case that is NBC. Would a ratings decline cause that prediction to be adjusted downward? It could. Stay tuned.

The other end of the NBC ratings spectrum is both woeful and crowded. Ratings are so pitiful that only shows that have hit a 1.1 rating (1600 Penn, Deception) have been moved to "certain to be canceled". Those that have hit a 1.2 rating (Whitney, Smash, Guys With Kids) are just "likely to be canceled". And those that have held at a 1.3 (Go On) or above are still "toss ups". Even so, the complete collapse of NBC spring ratings means that some of those shows probably have brighter futures than I am predicting at this point. NBC's scripted show average the last three weeks has hovered around a 1.5. That means shows that average a 1.3 have a reasonably good chance of being renewed. Let that sink in for a second. Yikes.

My "don't update until the ratings arrive" posture has me holding Up All Night at "likely canceled", but the Applegate departure last week could certainly have the reasonable think its cancellation is certain.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • FemEagle

    Good riddance, “New Normal”. Guess nbody wants to watch perverts, except maybe some of the dippy viewers in the New England states who voted for gay “marriage”.

  • Marlene

    Ahh my poor baby. Deception :( never had. A chance NBC get your act together!!

  • Marlene

    NBC will have more problems if people start questioning the Voice as a talent show and more as just ratings cushioln for NBC, The Voice needs a star from their alumni almost everyone on it is very Talented but I’m not sure how one of them hasn’t been a hit yet yes the show needs a star to gain music credibility just look at how the US X Factor is doing for lack of a star .

  • KevinY

    I wonder if Deception moving up to a (1.2) this week will move it back to “likely” instead of “certain” cancellation. I think it’s a great show.

  • James

    I don’t understand why would they switch Up All Night from single to multi-cam. If the lead star left, if the show creator left, if they are thinking of Lisa Kudrow as a replacement… for God’s sake, make a new show already! This ain’t going to be Up All Night. It’s going to be something entirely different. Really, why keep a brand that hasn’t been successful? Just let it go.

  • Lukes

    I think it’s a bit too early to give Community as certain to be renewed after only one episode…
    On the other side, I understand more the bad situation for Smash considering the horrible ratings of the première.

    Surely NBS has a disastrous situation!

  • Ali

    I hope Smash recovers or at least wrap the hell of it this season, you got plenty of notice.

  • Honey Badger

    @ Fake Me Out , thank you for your post. LOL Funny – I think the President of NBC is doing A, D , E and G right now. and G explains most of the decisions the executives of NBC. “G) Drink. Drink s’more. Fall down. Continue drinking.”

    Fake Me Out
    Posted February 12, 2013 at 8:03 PM
    @Honey Badger
    “Once again NBC needs drastic changes. What would you do if you were the President of NBC ?”

    A) Use whiteout to change the N to an A?
    B) Take inspiration from the M*A*S*H theme song?
    C) Witness protection?
    D) Fake amnesia?
    E) Invest heavily in the lottery?
    F) Sign up for bomb duty in Afghanistan?
    G) Drink. Drink s’more. Fall down. Continue drinking.

    ymmv

  • cas127

    Interesting (if vague) observation -

    The NBC 10 PM shows (which operate at a disadvantage Cancellation Index-wise, because the percentage of households using television at 10 PM is markedly lower than those watching TV at 8 and 9 PM) are generally doing *better* than shows airing at 8 and 9 PM.

    Hmmm.

    TV Execs are nothing if not hysterically over-reactive.

    Can we expect hour long shows at 8 and 9 PM in the years to come?…

    If TV is anything like movies, international sales are a bigger and bigger deal financially for the networks/studios (about 65% of worldwide revenues for movies at least) and comedies don’t translate well to foreign cultures.

    So if you are a NBC/Universal exec, looking at cratering sitcoms which are hard to sell overseas *anyway*…do you start to produce more hour-long shows – which are also probably cheaper than 2 half-hour shows…

    Hmmm.

  • Oliver

    @cas127

    It’s not that simple. Comedies are typically cheaper per hour than dramas, especially multicams, they do better in syndication, and get more favourable younger demographics.

    Also, comedies don’t *inherently* translate badly to foreign audiences. The Simpsons is huge internationally, for example.

    I think given the choice between NCIS/OUAT or TBBT/Modern Family then NBC would rather have the comedies.

  • Ultima

    @Honey Badger
    And yes, I do think this is the first time that a network has ever been in this bad of shape

    Well, if you are ignorant of history, then you will come to poor conclusions.

  • Oliver

    For their comedies, I think NBC needs to take more creative risks, rather than trying to be self-consciously broad and accessible. Here’s the problem: Ryan Murphy’s Modern Family, Scott Silveri’s Community featuring Matthew Perry, The Monkey Show, Guys With Kids, Modern Family in the White House.

    Instead, making big bold creative bets is how you get out of the basement.

  • Oliver

    ABC was in a much tougher situation prior to 2005-06 than NBC is now. At least NBC has The Voice to fall back on.

  • Honey Badger

    “the complete collapse of NBC spring ratings …. NBC’s scripted show average the last three weeks has hovered around a 1.5. That means shows that average a 1.3 have a reasonably good chance of being renewed. Let that sink in for a second. Yikes.”

    NBC shows 18-49 ratings : “American Ninja Warrior” 0.7, Do No Harm* canceled 0.7, Animal Practice* canceled, Smash 1.2, The New Normal 1.1, 1600 Penn 1.1, Guys With Kids 1.2, Whitney 1.2, “Rock Center with Brian Williams” 1.2, Deception 1.1, Go On 1.3, Up All Night * retooling show 1.3, 30 Rock * final season complete 1.4, “Dateline NBC” 1.4, Betty White’s Off Their Rockers 1.6, Grimm * Friday, 11/16/2012 1.6, Parenthood 1.7, Parks & Recreation 1.7, Law & Order: SVU 1.5, Community 1.9, The Office * final season 2.1, Chicago Fire 1.9, The Biggest Loser 2.1, Revolution *Monday, 11/12/2012 2.6, The Voice averaged 4.3 , NBC NFL Sunday Night Football averaged 8.2

    Without “ The Voice “ as a lead-in NBC shows tank: “Without a boost from The Voice, the Matthew Perry comedy Go On has faltered. After premiering to 9.73 million viewers and a 3.4 in the demo, the show foundered in the absence of its lead-in. In its first week without the tailwinds of Adam, Blake, Cee Lo and Christina, Go On dropped to a 1.5 from a 2.4. The most recent new installment (Jan. 29) delivered a series-low 1.3 in the demo.”
    After NBC enjoyed its strongest fall quarter in recent memory, the loss of Sunday Night Football and The Voice have erased the network’s early gains. Twenty weeks into the 2012-13 broadcast season, NBC has fallen to second place in the all-important adults 18-49 demo, averaging a 2.7 rating through Feb. 10. This represents an 8 percent decline versus the same period one year ago, and marks the first time since the season began that NBC didn’t enjoy an advantage over the rest of the Big Four. As late as mid-December, NBC was scorching the competition, averaging a 3.1 in the dollar demo, an improvement of 24 percent from the year-ago period. But with the National Football League sidelined until next fall and The Voice on hiatus until March 25, the bottom has fallen out at 30 Rock.
    NBC’s Ratings Momentum Stalls, Midseason failures leave ‘Voice’-less Peacock adriftBy Anthony Crupi February 13, 2013, 5:52 AM EST http://www.adweek.com/news/television/nbc-s-ratings-momentum-stalls-147255

    Let’s review some of NBC decisions this year.
    Interrupting the final ceremonies of the Olympics to show the premier of “Animal Practice “a show with low ratings that was soon cancelled.
    Retooling the show “ Smash “ which bombed in the ratings last year, continually dropping in ratings even with a great lead-in “ The Voice “, they put in new writers, new show runners, and new cast members. The show that has been called one of the most expensive shows on television. Then it premiered for the second season with a 1.1 rating.
    Retooling NBC “ Up All night “ again. A show with has had very low ratings, is on its third show runner, major cast changes, and so many more changes (read postings above)
    NBC new show “Do No Harm “. “While it’s blindingly obvious that Do No Harm is certain to be canceled after the lowest premiere rating in history for any scripted show on the big 4 broadcast networks” “After just two airings, Do No Harm has been canceled by NBC, and pulled from its schedule. It premiered to a very low 0.9 adults 18-49 rating, then fell even further to a 0.7 rating in its second week. “

    NBC at TCA: “Deception” and “Revolution” Get Reduced Orders, 01/06/13 – 03:23 PM]
    By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC) “As for “Revolution,” Greenblatt made an off-handed remark during the executive session to “the last 10 episodes” of the season left to air. Said number would put the season total at 20 episodes, two shy of the traditional full season order of 22. A spokesperson subsequently confirmed to me that there are indeed 10 episodes left to air.”

    All the broadcast networks have been tanking for years, and they are tanking big time again this year, the only reason NBC is up overall is because of “The Voice “ and NBC NFL Sunday night Football “ without these two shows NBC would be having a down year. And “ The Voice “ratings will drop soon, like all the other oversaturated singing and talent shows, then watch NBC drop big time, as it is very dependent on “ The Voice “ for its ratings and lead-in help for other shows ratings.
    NBC is in worse shape than others like CBS because they have lower ratings to begin with. Example: if I have a million dollars and lose 10% I still have $900,000, and if you have $10 dollars and gain 20% you have $10.20. Who is in better shape? Me
    What would you do if you were President of NBC now?

  • Honey Badger

    Ultima
    Posted February 13, 2013 at 7:54 AM
    @Honey Badger
    “And yes, I do think this is the first time that a network has ever been in this bad of shape”

    Well, if you are ignorant of history, then you will come to poor conclusions.

    @ Ultima, it is good to know history, but it is not good to be living in the past and not realize the world has changed. When one looks at total viewers and ratings, all the broadcast networks are at historical lows. And without The Voice and NFL Sunday Night Football, NBC would be at historic lows for ratings and viewers.
    I will repost my previous response to this, but I think we have to agree to disagree, and you will keep waiting for a Crosby size hit.

    @ Ultima – KJ Styles is right
    You are missing the point that broadcast networks have been dropping like a rock in ratings and viewers for many years. Cable, Hulu, Netflix, the internet, Univision, Telemundo, and others are all taking away their viewers. Broadcast television has much more competition than it did a decade ago. In fact things have changed dramatically the last five years. Most of the networks are a shell of their former selves in viewers and ratings. An example of competition “The Walking Dead was Sunday’s top cable original with a series high 6.1 adults 18-49 rating.”
    “ The Cosby Show put up unheard of numbers: in 1987 it had a 34.9 HH rating, the highest since Bonanza in 1965 (22 years), and an all-time high of 63 million viewers per episode” . Today there is no show in broadcast that comes anywhere close to that, the top show today “The Big Bang Theory on CBS swept its time period, finishing first in households (11.3/18), viewers (19.02m), adults 25-54 (7.9/21), adults 18-49 (6.2/18) and adults 18-34 (4.4/15). “ American Idol on Fox came nowhere near that, in its best days having around 20 million viewers and now having around 4.1 rating 13 – 14 million viewers.
    All the broadcast networks are tanking big time again this year, the only reason NBC is up overall is because of “The Voice “ and NBC NFL Sunday night Football “ without these two shows NBC would be having a down year. And “ The Voice “ratings will drop soon, like all the other oversaturated singing and talent shows, then watch NBC drop big time, as it is very dependent on “ The Voice “ for its ratings and lead-in help for other shows ratings.
    NBC is in worse shape than others like CBS because they have lower ratings to begin with. Example: if I have a million dollars and lose 10% I still have $900,000, and if you have $10 dollars and gain 20% you have $10.20. Who is in better shape? Me
    And yes, I do think this is the first time that a network has ever been in this bad of shape
    “the complete collapse of NBC spring ratings means that some of those shows probably have brighter futures than I am predicting at this point. NBC’s scripted show average the last three weeks has hovered around a 1.5. That means shows that average a 1.3 have a reasonably good chance of being renewed. Let that sink in for a second. Yikes.”

    Once again NBC has to do something drastic, or in the future they ratings will tank even more, and they will lose more revenue, and then become unprofitable. Then the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear will go wild canceling everything at the NBC network

  • Ultima

    @Honey Badger

    Oliver already mentioned it, but here’s some details as to how bad ABC was doing in the early 2000s.

    Dramas – in May 1997, ABC decided to cancel virtually all of their dramas. They only kept the two that had run after their highly rated Tuesday comedy block – veteran NYPD Blue and freshman The Practice. Over the next SEVEN seasons, ABC would only renew two more freshman dramas – Once and Again (which didn’t do very well, but ended up lasting three seasons anyways) and Alias (which was a cult hit, but never a ratings hit).

    Comdies – in the last 80s/early 90s, ABC was a comedy machine, launching hit after hit. However, by the mid-90s, that had stopped and ABC’s veterans declined and ended one after the other leaving the new, weaker comedies to fend for themselves against NBC’s comedies (which were everywhere) and even TGIF ran out of gas. ABC fell from the strongest comedy lineup to the weakest in little more than a decade.

    Millionaire – the epitome of doing something drastic. A breakout hit in August and November of 1999, where it was run stripped, ABC decided to air it 3+ nights a week starting in January, which vaulted them to #1 for the season by May 2000. A year later, a rapidly declining Millionaire had left the ABC schedule a smoldering ruin with over a hundred hours of holes to fill.

    How did ABC fix this mess (eventually rising close to #1 but for an Idol-backed FOX)?

    Not by doing anything drastic, but by empasizing what was working and cutting out the shows that didn’t. They managed to launch two hit dramas in 2004 (Desperate Housewives and Lost) and were able to use DH and the Super Bowl to create an even bigger hit in Grey’s Anatomy, which they used to regain competitiveness on the CBS-dominated Thursday nights. They took advantage of growing demand for reality shows by deveoping several hits (The Bachelor in spring 2002, EM:HE in winter 2004, DWTS in summer 2005). They cut the money-losing, schedule-destroying Monday Night Football in 2005. Finally, they fixed their comedy lineup by rebooting in 2009 and finding a hit in Modern Family.

  • Rebecca

    So now they’re just going to make one multi-cam episode of UAN….anyone know if Applegate will at least be in that, to wrap things up in case it’s a series finale?

  • MichaelChickless

    @Honey Badger

    Your posts are too visually confusing!

  • Cyrax86

    @Rebecca, No she won’t be in it and it seems it’s going to be like a pilot for a new show and not the actual continuation of the previous episodes.

  • Honey Badger

    @ thank you, I will try to fix them, I write to fast and send instead of reviewing, I will try to fix them,

    MichaelChickless
    Posted February 13, 2013 at 9:50 AM
    @Honey Badger

    Your posts are too visually confusing!

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