NBC: 'Community' Starts As Certain To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

February 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
Smash :cry: :cry: 0.75
The New Normal :oops: 0.78
1600 Penn :oops: 0.81
Guys With Kids :cry: :cry: 0.83
Whitney :cry: :cry: 0.89
Deception :oops: 0.90
Go On :| :| :| 0.90
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
Community :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.18
The Office final season 1.31
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
Up All Night :cry: :cry: pending
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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Surprising most of our polled readers, a Dan Harmon-less Community returned to NBC's schedule with a 1.9 adults 18-49 rating last week. That's plenty good enough to be "certain to be renewed" on the ratings basket case that is NBC. Would a ratings decline cause that prediction to be adjusted downward? It could. Stay tuned.

The other end of the NBC ratings spectrum is both woeful and crowded. Ratings are so pitiful that only shows that have hit a 1.1 rating (1600 Penn, Deception) have been moved to "certain to be canceled". Those that have hit a 1.2 rating (Whitney, Smash, Guys With Kids) are just "likely to be canceled". And those that have held at a 1.3 (Go On) or above are still "toss ups". Even so, the complete collapse of NBC spring ratings means that some of those shows probably have brighter futures than I am predicting at this point. NBC's scripted show average the last three weeks has hovered around a 1.5. That means shows that average a 1.3 have a reasonably good chance of being renewed. Let that sink in for a second. Yikes.

My "don't update until the ratings arrive" posture has me holding Up All Night at "likely canceled", but the Applegate departure last week could certainly have the reasonable think its cancellation is certain.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Honey Badger

    @ MichaelChickless, Fixed, I hope this is better

    NBC ratings are tanking, dropping like a rock. Something drastic is needed or the future of NBC looks dim. If you were the president of NBC what would you do?

    “the complete collapse of NBC spring ratings …. NBC’s scripted show average the last three weeks has hovered around a 1.5. That means shows that average a 1.3 have a reasonably good chance of being renewed. Let that sink in for a second. Yikes.” Bill Gorman /tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com

    NBC shows 18-49 ratings : “American Ninja Warrior” 0.7, Do No Harm* canceled 0.7, Animal Practice* canceled, Smash 1.2, The New Normal 1.1, 1600 Penn 1.1, Guys With Kids 1.2, Whitney 1.2, “Rock Center with Brian Williams” 1.2, Deception 1.1, Go On 1.3, Up All Night * retooling show 1.3, 30 Rock * final season complete 1.4, “Dateline NBC” 1.4, Betty White’s Off Their Rockers 1.6, Grimm * Friday, 11/16/2012 1.6, Parenthood 1.7, Parks & Recreation 1.7, Law & Order: SVU 1.5, Community 1.9, The Office * final season 2.1, Chicago Fire 1.9, The Biggest Loser 2.1, Revolution *Monday, 11/12/2012 2.6, The Voice averaged 4.3 , NBC NFL Sunday Night Football averaged 8.2

    NBC’s Ratings Momentum Stalls, Midseason failures leave ‘Voice’-less Peacock adriftBy Anthony Crupi February 13, 2013, 5:52 AM EST http://www.adweek.com/news/television/nbc-s-ratings-momentum-stalls-147255
    “Without “ The Voice “ as a lead-in NBC shows tank: “Without a boost from The Voice, the Matthew Perry comedy Go On has faltered. After premiering to 9.73 million viewers and a 3.4 in the demo, the show foundered in the absence of its lead-in. In its first week without the tailwinds of Adam, Blake, Cee Lo and Christina, Go On dropped to a 1.5 from a 2.4. The most recent new installment (Jan. 29) delivered a series-low 1.3 in the demo…
    After NBC enjoyed its strongest fall quarter in recent memory, the loss of Sunday Night Football and The Voice have erased the network’s early gains. Twenty weeks into the 2012-13 broadcast season, NBC has fallen to second place in the all-important adults 18-49 demo, averaging a 2.7 rating through Feb. 10. This represents an 8 percent decline versus the same period one year ago, and marks the first time since the season began that NBC didn’t enjoy an advantage over the rest of the Big Four. As late as mid-December, NBC was scorching the competition, averaging a 3.1 in the dollar demo, an improvement of 24 percent from the year-ago period. But with the National Football League sidelined until next fall and The Voice on hiatus until March 25, the bottom has fallen out at 30 Rock.”

    Adding to NBC problems – The whole television environment has changed the last few years – All the broadcast networks have been tanking for years, and they are tanking big time again this year. the only reason NBC is up overall is because of “The Voice “ and NBC NFL Sunday night Football “ without these two shows NBC would be having a big down year. And “ The Voice “ratings will drop soon, like all the other oversaturated singing and talent shows, then watch NBC drop big time, as it is very dependent on “ The Voice “ for its ratings and lead-in help for other shows ratings.
    KJ Styles is right, broadcast networks have been dropping like a rock in ratings and viewers for many years. Cable, Hulu, Netflix, the internet, Univision, Telemundo, and others are all taking away their viewers. Broadcast television has much more competition than it did a decade ago. In fact things have changed dramatically the last five years. Most of the networks are a shell of their former selves in viewers and ratings. An example of competition “The Walking Dead was Sunday’s top cable original with a series high 6.1 adults 18-49 rating.”
    The whole television environment has changed the last few years.“ The Cosby Show put up unheard of numbers: in 1987 it had a 34.9 HH rating, the highest since Bonanza in 1965 (22 years), and an all-time high of 63 million viewers per episode” . Today there is no show in broadcast that comes anywhere close to that, the top show today “The Big Bang Theory on CBS swept its time period, finishing first in households (11.3/18), viewers (19.02m), adults 25-54 (7.9/21), adults 18-49 (6.2/18) and adults 18-34 (4.4/15). “ American Idol on Fox came nowhere near that, in its best days having around 20 million viewers and now having around 4.1 rating 13 – 14 million viewers.

    NBC is in worse shape than other broadcast networks like CBS because they have lower ratings to begin with. Example: if I have a million dollars and lose 10% I still have $900,000, and if you have $10 dollars and gain 20% you have $10.20. Who is in better shape? Me

    Let’s review some of NBC decisions this year. The executives at NBC do not inspire confidence in their decisions:
    Interrupting the final ceremonies of the Olympics to show the premier of “Animal Practice “a show with low ratings that was soon cancelled.
    Retooling the show “ Smash “ which bombed in the ratings last year, continually dropping in ratings even with a great lead-in “ The Voice “, they put in new writers, new show runners, and new cast members. The show that has been called one of the most expensive shows on television. Then it premiered for the second season with a 1.1 rating.
    Retooling NBC “ Up All night “ again. A show with has had very low ratings, is on its third show runner, major cast changes, and so many more changes (read postings above)
    NBC new show “Do No Harm “. “While it’s blindingly obvious that Do No Harm is certain to be canceled after the lowest premiere rating in history for any scripted show on the big 4 broadcast networks” “After just two airings, Do No Harm has been canceled by NBC, and pulled from its schedule. It premiered to a very low 0.9 adults 18-49 rating, then fell even further to a 0.7 rating in its second week. “
    NBC at TCA: “Deception” and “Revolution” Get Reduced Orders, 01/06/13 – 03:23 PM]
    By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC) “As for “Revolution,” Greenblatt made an off-handed remark during the executive session to “the last 10 episodes” of the season left to air. Said number would put the season total at 20 episodes, two shy of the traditional full season order of 22.”

    Once again NBC has to do something drastic, or in the future they ratings will tank even more, and they will lose more revenue, and then become unprofitable. Then the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear will go wild canceling everything at the NBC network

    What would you do if you were President of NBC now?

  • Dude

    Do the syndication rules apply differently in Canada? Because Community is already syndicated here.

  • Hals

    I think NBC made a good decision on turning single-cam to a multi-cam, I just wish they would make it a new show altogether.

  • SF Guy

    Yes, that New Normal is one of the LOWEST and WORST show ever on TV. Most of all, actings are horrible. How did they get a chance to be on TV with that lousy acting skills??? Totally agree that is it “certain to be cancelled”. Just still do not get it, why not just cancel it. The Smash had much higher ratings on that time slot than the New Normal. basically it is the second lowest on NBC.. and you do not want to take a chance by put tht show after the VOice as other shows will have MUCH higher ratings. Up All NIght is very good show with very talented actors. That should be follow by “go On” on Tuesday. Just cancel the New Normal so I can watch NBC shos on Tuesday.

  • Bradley

    @Honey Badger

    You put Parks and Rec at 1.7. They’re latest numbers were a 1.9 and 2.0.

  • Honey Badger

    @ Bradley, you are right, my bad, oops

    Bradley
    Posted February 13, 2013 at 11:50 AM
    @Honey Badger

    You put Parks and Rec at 1.7. They’re latest numbers were a 1.9 and 2.0.

  • Ben

    What NBC should do for next season

    Monday
    8-The Voice/Biggest loser/The voice
    10-NEW DRAMA

    Tuesday
    8-The Voice/Biggest loser/The voice
    9-NEW COMEDY
    9:30-Go On
    10-NEW DRAMA

    Wednesday
    8-SVU
    9-Revolution
    10-Chicago Fire

    Thursday
    8-Parks and Recreation
    8:30-NEW COMEDY
    9-Community
    9:30-NEW COMEDY
    10-Parenthood (13 episodes)/NEW DRAMA

    Friday
    8-Dateline
    9-Grimm
    10-Dateline (try a 2 part edition on Fridays)

    Sunday (midseason)
    8-The Apprentice (final season)
    10-Rock Center with Brian Williams

    Midseason shows (In case of cancellations):
    The New Normal
    Betty White’s of their Rockers

    NBC should focus on the successes and build on them. By bringing back the Voice in mid-late February, NBC wouldn’t have to experience the losses that are happening now as The Voice is on hiatus. By having a 2 day Biggest Loser, NBC has a guaranteed performer to provide a solid lead in to its new shows. Also by making Wednesday all dramas will help with consistency and can help keep Chicago Fire doing well if SVU anchors the night instead of 2 poor performing sitcoms.

  • TVDude

    I just read on Deadline that NBC is going to move forward with the multicam version of Up All Night, but that they are cutting the order from five episodes to just one. So it sounds like they’re basically creating a new pilot episode and if they like it, will probably relaunch it in the fall as a new show.

  • Ben

    I’m surprises that NBC hasn’t just finally given up on Up All Night

  • Rebecca

    @Cyrax86
    Thank you for that answer.

  • Beth Ann

    Whitney and Guys With Kids probably cost a lot less to produce than say, Smash or Deception. While all shows are ratings challenged, I can see NBC keeping Whitney and Guys With Kids over Smash or Deception. 1600 Penn was hyped a lot but has done so poorly already. As for The New Normal, it seems that is definitely going to follow CBS’ Partners into cancellation land.

  • Cindy

    Don’t cancel Whitney!!!!

  • Ben

    What do you think of my schedule from above?

  • The End

    Comcast are soon to be buying the rest of the NBC Universal shares soon, so they’l have 100 percent control of the company, I don’t think this will effect the current crop of shows, but might affect next seasons. Especially if they take a more direct control of the company in general.

  • TomZ

    @Ben
    I think it’s good… I’m not sure about the Thursday… Do you think that community and Parks and rec could hold against CBS and Fox? But is still better than the current schedule :-)

    I really hope that community holds at least 1.5…

  • ksmith

    I cannot believe people will not watch Deception. It is very suspenseful. It needs a chance.

  • Ben

    @TomZ
    It’s really hard to predict how well community and Parks and Rec will do against the toughest bunch of shows, but I can’t think of a better Thursday unless they switch the Tuesday and Thursday schedules, but it would be dangerous to put the voice directly against X factor and idol. But based on recent p&r and community ratings, they might be able to at least stay above a 1.5

  • TomZ

    @Ben
    I hope so XD community for me is the funniest show ever… So I hope that it doesn’t drop much. Sixseasonsandamovie!

  • Ben

    Another way NBC could do their schedule next year, but a little more risky.

    Monday
    8-The Voice/The Biggest Loser/The Voice
    10-NEW DRAMA

    Tuesday
    8-Parks and Recreation
    8:30-NEW COMEDY
    9-Chicago Fire
    10-Rock Center With Brian Williams

    Wednesday
    8-Revolution
    9-Law and Order: SVU
    10-NEW DRAMA/Parenthood

    Thursday
    8-Community (nothing does well here, so don’t risk launching a new show)
    8:30-Go On (no need to put a new show here, this hour is just filler because new shows don’t so well here)
    9-The Voice (very risky move, but it might pay off, considering the boost it could give to the awful ratings on Thursdays at 10)
    10-NEW DRAMA

    Friday
    8-Dateline/Fashion Star
    9-Grimm/Dateline
    10-Dateline

    Saturday (a new block of a recap and a very cheap show can’t hurt, plus if a show is cancelled, Betty White can move and replace it)
    8-The Voice Recap (a 1 hour recap of the past week on the Voice)/Encore Programming/The Voice Recap
    9-Betty White’s of Their Rockers/Encore Programming
    10-Encore Programming

    Sunday (after football is over)
    8-The Apprentice
    10-Ready For Love

    Extra midseason shows in case of cancellations: The New Normal, Whitney, Guys With Kids,

    3 new dramas and 1 new comedy

  • NY

    All these people taking it out on NBC are showing that they know nothing about TV. Look: Networks have cycles. The difficult phase NBC is going thru is nothing unusual. Remember FOX before Idol and Glee? Remember ABC before Wives and MF? Remember CBS before CSI, NCIS and 2.5? To “start over” is not an option. They gotta keep as many shows as they premiere, more or less. To cancel everything doesn’t guarantee anything. You may have 20 new products and all 20 be unsuccessful. Plus NBC pilots for next year look so promising. I bet they can turn this around pretty easily next fall, and keep Go On and TNN while doing so.

    @FemEagle: How are you doing in the middle ages? Anyone fell off the flat-Earth? Please stay there, away from 21st century.

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