NBC: 'Community' Starts As Certain To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

February 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
Smash :cry: :cry: 0.75
The New Normal :oops: 0.78
1600 Penn :oops: 0.81
Guys With Kids :cry: :cry: 0.83
Whitney :cry: :cry: 0.89
Deception :oops: 0.90
Go On :| :| :| 0.90
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
Community :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.18
The Office final season 1.31
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
Up All Night :cry: :cry: pending
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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Surprising most of our polled readers, a Dan Harmon-less Community returned to NBC's schedule with a 1.9 adults 18-49 rating last week. That's plenty good enough to be "certain to be renewed" on the ratings basket case that is NBC. Would a ratings decline cause that prediction to be adjusted downward? It could. Stay tuned.

The other end of the NBC ratings spectrum is both woeful and crowded. Ratings are so pitiful that only shows that have hit a 1.1 rating (1600 Penn, Deception) have been moved to "certain to be canceled". Those that have hit a 1.2 rating (Whitney, Smash, Guys With Kids) are just "likely to be canceled". And those that have held at a 1.3 (Go On) or above are still "toss ups". Even so, the complete collapse of NBC spring ratings means that some of those shows probably have brighter futures than I am predicting at this point. NBC's scripted show average the last three weeks has hovered around a 1.5. That means shows that average a 1.3 have a reasonably good chance of being renewed. Let that sink in for a second. Yikes.

My "don't update until the ratings arrive" posture has me holding Up All Night at "likely canceled", but the Applegate departure last week could certainly have the reasonable think its cancellation is certain.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Ben

    1600 Penn will probably be pulled off the air before it finishes the run. (Burn off in the summer)

  • George

    Go On doesn’t belong on Tuesday. I think for this season, it might be good to put it on after The Office. Parks and Rec at 8 could probably steal from BBT viewers, and Community at 8:30 gives it a fair chance to get more viewers.

    And then just splice 1600 Penn and Do No Harm together and run commercials.

  • Honey Badger

    As predicted on tvbythenumbers.com by many long ago, the oversaturation of singing and talent shows will cause all these shows ratings and viewers to drop big time.
    Look at American Idol ratings last night
    FOX American Idol 3.6 18-49 Rating 12.33 Viewers Live+SD (million)
    This shows that NBC is in big trouble.

    “The Voice “ and NBC NFL Sunday night Football “ without these two shows NBC would be having a big down year. It is inevitable “ The Voice “ratings will drop soon, like all the other oversaturated singing and talent shows, then watch NBC drop big time, as it is very dependent on “ The Voice “ for its ratings and lead-in help for other shows ratings.

    Look at last night’s ratings for NBC, Yikes
    NBC Community 1.1 18-49 rating
    NBC Parks & Recreation 1.5
    and NBC The Office (9-10PM) 2.0 is in its last year

    The latest rating for NBC shows now that NBC NFL Sunday Night Football is done for the year and The Voice is between seasons, are cancel worthy low for almost all NBC shows.
    NBC shows 18-49 ratings : “American Ninja Warrior” 0.7, Do No Harm* canceled 0.7, Animal Practice* canceled, Smash 1.2, The New Normal 1.1, 1600 Penn 1.1, Community 1.1, Guys With Kids 1.2, Whitney 1.2, “Rock Center with Brian Williams” 1.2, Deception 1.1, Go On 1.3, Up All Night * retooling show 1.3, 30 Rock * final season complete 1.4, “Dateline NBC” 1.4, Betty White’s Off Their Rockers 1.6, Grimm * Friday, 11/16/2012 1.6, Parenthood 1.7, Parks & Recreation 1.5, Law & Order: SVU 1.5, The Office * final season 2.1, Chicago Fire 1.9, The Biggest Loser 2.1, Revolution *Monday, 11/12/2012 2.6, The Voice averaged 4.3 , NBC NFL Sunday Night Football averaged 8.2

    As many people predicted on tvbythenumbers.com by many long ago, without “The Voice “ acting as a lead in to help other shows get better ratings, NBC would be lucky to get a show above a 2.0 18-49 rating. Looks like the predictions are true !
    Example: “ Go On “.premieried with a 3.4 18-49 rating and went settled around a 2.4, without “the voice “ as a lead-in, Go On dropped to a 1.3.
    the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear could cancel almost all the NBC shows. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

    If you are President of NBC what do you do now

  • Leondre

    According to the futon critic…

    Go On and The New Normal will both air repeats on March 5-19 and then their final 5 episodes will air after The Voice.

    Why won’t NBC just give up those two losers?

  • Oliver

    Link? If you’re just talking about TFC’s listings, they are extrapolated guesses.

    If that is the case then NBC is braindead.

  • Honey Badger

    Congratulations and Kudos to everybody at tvbythenumbers.com. To be mentioned in an article on nasdaq.com is very impressive.
    Congratulations, Well Done

    Comcast’s NBC Buy Won’t Bankrupt Cable Giant, But It’s Odd, Wasteful and Dangerous
    By Benzinga, February 13, 2013, 03:09:16 PM EDT
    http://www.nasdaq.com/article/comcasts-nbc-buy-wont-bankrupt-cable-giant-but-its-odd-wasteful-and-dangerous-cm217394

    Last week the television show ‘Suburgatory’ on ABC gave tvbythenumbers.com A Primetime Shout Out

    Congratulations and Kudos to everybody at tvbythenumbers.com, a very impressive 2 weeks.

  • Ben

    NBC will soon look like this

    Monday
    8-The Voice

    Tuesday
    8-The Voice

    Wednesday
    8-The Voice

    Thursdqy
    8-The Voice

    Friday
    8-The Voice

    Etc.

  • Honey Badger

    For all those who think broadcast television Networks can make changes, turn things around, and go back to the good old days of Gunsmoke and The Cosby show, etc. please read:
    this rule” on tvbythenumbers.com
    tvbythenumbers GunsmokeRule: “No comparing the ratings of any individual show this season to a show in any season except the previous one. “How could CBS have canceled Gunsmoke, for some dreck like NCIS? Gunsmoke averaged a 40 rating and a 65 share in 1960!
    A very different television landscape indeed.
    Since 1997, overall broadcast television primetime ratings have declined by about 1/3. Pretty much every entertainment show on broadcast primetime in 1997 on any given network rated substantially higher than any show today on that network.
    Comparisons to long past broadcast shows *always* reflect poorly on current broadcast shows, prove nothing, and make no sense!”

    And check out the chart on tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com : Where Did The Primetime Broadcast TV Audience Go? http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2010/04/12/where-did-the-primetime-broadcast-tv-audience-go/47976/

    Adding to NBC problems – The whole television environment has changed the last few years – All the broadcast networks have been tanking for years, and they are tanking big time again this year. broadcast networks have been dropping like a rock in ratings and viewers for many years. Cable, Hulu, Netflix, the internet, Univision, Telemundo, and others are all taking away their viewers. Broadcast television has much more competition than it did a decade ago. In fact things have changed dramatically the last five years. Most of the networks are a shell of their former selves in viewers and ratings. An example of competition “The Walking Dead was Sunday’s top cable original with a series high 6.1 adults 18-49 rating.”
    The whole television environment has changed the last few years.“ The Cosby Show put up unheard of numbers: in 1987 it had a 34.9 HH rating, the highest since Bonanza in 1965 (22 years), and an all-time high of 63 million viewers per episode” . Today there is no show in broadcast that comes anywhere close to that, the top show today “The Big Bang Theory on CBS swept its time period, finishing first in households (11.3/18), viewers (19.02m), adults 25-54 (7.9/21), adults 18-49 (6.2/18) and adults 18-34 (4.4/15). “ American Idol on Fox came nowhere near that, in its best days having around 20 million viewers and now having around 4.1 rating 13 – 14 million viewers.

    NBC is in worse shape than other broadcast networks like CBS because they have lower ratings to begin with. Example: if I have a million dollars and lose 10% I still have $900,000, and if you have $10 dollars and gain 20% you have $10.20. Who is in better shape? Me

    What would you do if you were President of NBC now?

  • Honey Badger

    Does NBC want their shows to fail?

    Look at the time slot they gave a new show Hannibal. A very bad time slot for any show on NBC. This show is DOA. Hannibal cancelled within 3 weeks after premier.

    “NBC has announced that Hannibal will premiere on Thursday, April 4 at 10pm, taking the timeslot most recently occupied by Do No Harm, which lasted two weeks after premiering with the lowest adults 18-49 rating for an in season scripted show on the four big English broadcast networks.”
    the Cancellation Bear is already waiting for this meal. follow on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

  • Ben

    When will Save Me premiere

  • Kese

    @Leondre “Go On and The New Normal will both air repeats on March 5-19 and then their final 5 episodes will air after The Voice”

    If this is true, then +1 for NBC!

    To air these two comedies without The Voice harmed not only the comedies themselves but also the newtork average. It is true that right now all NBC comedies are collapsing. However, there are many differences between GO and TNN, and the other comedies. GO and TNN work well with an efficient lead-in, the other’s don’t. GO and TNN had to compete against the top rated show, NCIS, and a bunch of comedies on FOX and ABC, the other’s haven’t. GO on and TNN show an impressive retention, the other’s don’t. To sum up, GO and TNN still have potential to surive and increase their demos next year, while the others are almost done. I don’t want anyone’s favorite show to be cancelled, but here’s the thing. By May, GO and TNN averages will be fine thanks to the episodes aired after The Voice, and considering that NBC will not cancel all their comedies at once, these two stand a high chance at being renewed, while the others have less chances. Perhaps Whitney will likely survive the cut too.

  • JacobYates

    @bill
    Has a show ever started at certain renewal and then dropped to certain cancellation the next week? If not, could community be the first to do so?

  • Nicole

    my comments arent posting. wth

  • Nicole

    i saw on another site Up all night was cancelled.

  • Nicole

    How come they dont give Parenthood an early pick up?? They are going to get a 5th season. so why not tell everyone now.

  • Gus

    When in doubt,experiment. To see Revolution become what it has is one thing, but I never thought something like Chicago Fire would do what it is doing. The network has to look for shows like these or do what Ben just suggested.

  • Adam Decker

    Most of the shows that I like are doing well right now.

  • HV

    Here is my prediction for next year’s NBC schedule:

    MONDAY
    8:00 The Voice/Biggest Looser/The Voice
    10:00 Revolution/(NEW) Dracula/Revolution

    TUESDAY
    8:00 The Voice/Betty White’s Off Their Rockers/The Voice
    9:00 Go On
    9:30 The New Normal
    10:00 Parenthood/Smash/(NEW) Untitled Rand Ravich Project

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 (NEW) MJF//(NEW) Girlfriend in a Coma (canceled)
    8:30 (NEW) Untitled Robert Padnick Project//(NEW) Holding Paterns
    9:00 Law & Order: SVU
    10:00 Chicago Fire

    THURSDAY
    8:00 Community (canceled)/About a Boy (canceled)
    8:30 Parks & Recreation
    9:00 (NEW) The Gates
    9:30 (NEW) Undateable
    10:00 Dateline NBC/(NEW) The Blacklist

    FRIDAY
    8:00 (NEW) Donor Party//Grimm
    8:30 (NEW) Joe & Joe & Jane//(Grimm)
    9:00 Grimm/Dateline NBC
    10:00 Rock Center with Brian Williams

  • HV

    Oops. Made a mistake on Friday at 8:00 (NEW) Donor Party (canceled)//Grimm

  • steve

    @ SF Guy

    Smash costs way more money in production costs than The New Normal. Smash has tanked since it’s lead in after The Voice last year. That should have been cancelled by NBC and they should have kept Harry’s Law.

    The New Normal is the only new show I watch on all the networks. It has a great cast and mark my word Ellen Barkin will get an Emmy nomination for Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series.

    NBC is in trouble big time. They can’t cancel every show they have. Giving TNN more time is what the network needs—put it on Thursday nights at 8:30 or 9:30 either after Community or Parks & Rec.

    SF Guy
    Posted February 13, 2013 at 11:32 AM

    Yes, that New Normal is one of the LOWEST and WORST show ever on TV. Most of all, actings are horrible. How did they get a chance to be on TV with that lousy acting skills??? Totally agree that is it “certain to be cancelled”. Just still do not get it, why not just cancel it. The Smash had much higher ratings on that time slot than the New Normal. basically it is the second lowest on NBC.. and you do not want to take a chance by put tht show after the VOice as other shows will have MUCH higher ratings. Up All NIght is very good show with very talented actors. That should be follow by “go On” on Tuesday. Just cancel the New Normal so I can watch NBC shos on Tuesday.

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